Grey Horse Handicap

N e w m a r k e t   2.45

11/2 Clear Ice, 6/1 Witchry, 7/1 Time Medicean 8/1 Sutton Veny 10/1 Sarah4s Art, 12/1 Whitechapel, 16/1 Berbice, Den4s Gift 16/1 Emma4s Gift, 16/1 Rylee Mooch, 16/1 Sunshine Always 16/1 Tislaam, 16/1 Zowington, Lady Florence, 20/1 Silver Rime 25/1 Kinigi, 25/1 Quarrel, 33/1 Admirable Duchess, 33/1 Tadalavil.

* This is a race for Grey horses only
* This is a 6f Handicap for 0-85 rated horses
* There are 265 similar races at this time of year
* SUTTON VENY is a negative as a mare from 5f
* Mares from 5f races won 6 races
* Those with 1-2-3-4 runs that year were 0-41
* SUTTON VENY only has 3 runs this season
* SUTTON VENY looks weak with a career high mark
* ADMIRABLE DUCHESS fails the same statistic
* She is underraced for a mare from 5f and career high mark
* TIME MEDICEAN comes from a 5f race
* He has a months absence doing this which is a worry
* There were winners with that profile
* Those with 1-2-3-4-5 runs that season were 0-49
* TIME MEDICEAN fails that with 4 runs this year
* TIME MEDICEAN won a 5f handicap last time
* No winners did that without a run in 2 weeks
* TIME MEDICEAN doesnt come out that well
* QUARREL – Must be opposed as a seasonal debutant
* WHITECHAPEL only has 1 run this season
* No winners came down in trip with 1 run that year (0-32)
* Well beaten last time WHITECHAPEL looks unsafe
* ZOWINGTON is 9 and absent 60 days
* No horse his age has won absent as long
* SARAH4S ART is 8 and absent 63 days
* He only has 3 runs this season as well
* I think he’s underraced this year with limited backclass
* EMMA4S GIFT is unsafe as a filly from  a Listed race
* Down from 8f no similar profiles won
* LADY FLORENCE didnt run well enough last time
* She will find this trip short of ideal as well
* TADALAVIL looks underraced this year
* I doubt he is in the form to win this
* SILVER RIME is an exposed horse from 7f
* He lacks a run within 2 weeks
* He has no form beyond a Class 2 race before
* Similar horses aged 6 or more were 4-34
* All 4 winners had at least 6 runs that season
* SILVER RIME only has 4 runs this year
* All 4 winners had no more than 9st 2lbs
* SILVER RIME has 8lbs more weight than any
* SILVER RIME looks unsafe to me statistically
* SILVER RIME has 30 runs but just 1 run at this trip
* He was hammered in that race so he is unproven at 6f
* TISLAAM is an exposed 4yo from 6f
* There are winners doing that but 2 problems
* None carried 8st 8lbs or less and he has 8st 3lbs
* All similar 4yo winners had Class 3 form at least
* TISLAAM has only raced in Class 4 and below
* I do like the recent run and the handicap mark
* Question marks as to whether he’s classy enough
* BERBICE is an exposed 6yo from a 5f race
* I found found a winner like him
* Therefore he is not a negative
* He is on a losing run of 29 though
* Not proven in a big field there are doubts
* I didnt think he offered enough

P o s s i b l e s

* WITCHRY won this race last season
* I thought he was underraced last year but he won
* The race cut up because of rain and only 9 ran last year
* I can’t rule him out after last years win
* Not having had far more runs this season
* WITCHRY doesnt feel safe statistically
* He won last time but he lacks a run in 2 weeks
* No horse won again doing that when older than 6
* WITCHRY is 9 now and thats a concern
* Statistically he is weak and unlike winners
* I said that last year though and he won

* SUNSHINE ALWAYS has a reasonably good profile
* I found a couple of similar 5yo winners like him
* He was 3rd in this race last year finishing fast
* That was his first ever run at this distance
* He would have won in a few more strides
* The issue is has he got the pace to win this 6f race
* Especially in a big field

* CLEAR ICE is an exposed 4yo
* He won a 6f handicap last time out
* He has just won 0-74 and 0-79 handicaps
* This is a 0-85 and a little bit tougher
* I have found 1 similar winner to him
* I Dont see his chance as better than many
* He has 42 runs and none were on a Grade 1 track
* He was also bought to try and win this race though

* DEN4S GIFT is an exposed 7yo from 7f
* He lacks a run within 2 weeks
* He has no form beyond a Class 2 race before
* He has a similar profile to Silver Rime
* DEN4S GIFT is just a year older
* He does have more runs this season though
* Thats his crucial advantage over that horse
* DEN4S GIFT is similar to 1 past winner
* DEN4S GIFT has a 0-20 record on turf
* Not worried about that as he has placed many times
* All his wins come at 7f and 8f though
* I wouldnt rule him out but there are doubts
* He will need to be on the right side drawn 20

S e l e c t i o n

KINIGI 25/1
RYLEE MOOCH 16/1

* KINIGI is an exposed mare from 5f
* She has never been out of a Class 4 race before
* Similar horses had a 1-14 record
* That winner was Clearing Sky in this race in 2006
* Clearing Sky had a long absence that day
* KINIGI doesnt but I’d make her a Possible
* I doubt she will win but 33/1 is a fair risk

RYLEE MOOCH 14/1

We have yet to have a 3yo winner of this race but
very few were fancied anyway and there seems no
reason at all why they can’t win. There are 265 of
these 6f Handicaps at this time of year and these
races show horses like RYLEE MOOCH are fine.

* Male horses aged 3
* Coming from 5f races
* Between 13 and 20 career starts
* No form beyond a Class 3 race before
* At least 7 runs that season
* Beaten last time but not by more than 10 lengths
* Not carrying more than 9st 6lbs
* Having won a race before
* Starting shorter than 25/1
* RYLEE MOOCH has this profile
* I ran it and found a 5-8 record

Thats a very good record. Admittedly some were
a few years ago and only 1 of the 5 winners were
in a big field. I would have liked a past winner of
this race his age but as I Said few were fancied and
overall his profile is better than anything else here.

S e l e c t i o ns

RYLEE MOOCH 18/1  Tote betfred
KINIGI 25/1 at many including s james PaddyPower or 38/1 Betfair

Posted under horse racing tips

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