Haydock Racing Tip

Clearly the big issue today is the rain that is falling everywhere.
We might see ground changes at many tracks but that’s not
certain to happen and it does make it impossible to approach
the day as confident as I would like.
The Conditions are against us with this rain.
If I were to have an account bet today I couldn’t answer
the obvious question of whether the ground is right so
decided to have a No Account Bet Saturday because of this.

By tomorrow we will know the Newmarket ground better
and the draw advantage so Sunday may be the time for a
bet there.

Despite the above I know many of you will want to have an interest today.
Here is one to consider if so.

HAYDOCK 3.00

EBF Joan Westbrook Pinnacle Stakes (Listed Race)
(Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m3f200y

11/4 Barshiba, 9/2 Becqu Adoree, 5/1 Les Fazzani
5/1 Polly´s Mark, 11/2 Rosika, 7/1 Flame Of Gibraltar
20/1 Three Moons, 25/1 Cassique Lady
33/1 Victoria Montoya, 40/1 All Annalena.

Never done this race before. It’s a Listed Class race for
fillies just short of 12 furlongs. There are just 7 renewals
of this race and no identical races elsewhere.
This race has always been won by a 4 year old.
They have won all 7 renewals so I would be wary of older horses.
That puts me off CASSIQUE LADY-VICTORIA MONTOYA -
BARSHIBA – LES FAZZANI.
We know this is a strong race for seasonal debutants.
If you look at horses who have run this season in the past 7
years you find  none  of then had more than 13 starts.
That is another pointer against the horses above.
ALL ANNALENA did not do enough last time.
THREE MOONS has to go with 1 run this year and up in distance.
POLLYS MARK has some chance but I want a debutant.

The ideal profile is this -

* 4 year old
* Seasonal debutant
* At least 3 career starts
* Running over 10f-13f last time
* At least 2 career wins
* There were 4 horses with that profile
* These 4 horses finished W W W W
* They won in 2009 2007 2005 2003

* BECQU ADOREE comes out well
* FLAME OF GIBRALTA is close to making that
* She just lacks a second win
* Dont rule her out though
* The 2007 winner came from the same trial race as her
* ROSIKA also comes from that same trial race
* ROSIKA is statistically perfect

The problem you have is ROSIKA wont be proven on
the ground if it changes as expected. The rain brings
POLLY’S MARK more into it. Given all the options I’d
still be happier with an unraced 4 year old so given that
BECQU ADOREE has form on the ground I will go with
her. BECQU ADOREE is the selection.

Posted under horse racing tips

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