It’s a fascinating Hennessy Day and a Newbury and
Towcester dominated message for full members.
I thought Newcastle had a poor card and I wasn’t prepared
to play the cat and mousegame about whether it is on or off.
I have done most of the races at Newbury and Towcester for full members
so hoping for a good day.

For full members I have four highlighted bets today.
Here on the free blog I will post just one of them

I knew a few weeks ago that BOBS WORTH would be the
strongest profile in the Hennessy and that took the shine
off the race as he’s favourite. My angles push me his way.

I will go with BOBS WORTH in the big race. My stats
suggest he is the one but he doesn’t really need to be
there today.

Hennessy Gold Cup Newbury  3.10

I sent the Hennessy Analysis earlier in the week. My angles
clearly point to BOBS WORTH being the likely winner. That
will depend on several things. He has to handle the biggest
field of chasers he has yet encountered and I have to get it right with the negatives.
For an example the age statistics  have to be right about TIDAL BAY who is
2 years olds than all past winners. His chance increases for me as this is a far from  vintage Hennessy but his age puts me off.
There’s a good case for HOLD ON JULIO but I have opposed him  as his sires
record shows none have won over this far and 46 of the Sires 47 winners
came in at least 3 Grades lower and none have won in this class before.
I dont know it that is a very skillfull thing to do or a complete mistake but
he is not my choice becuase of it.
My statistics suggest that THE PACKAGE should have competed in a higher
grade after so many runs if he was to have the class.
I have to be right about several more as well.
BOBS WORTH has the strongest profile and because of that is my selection.

* FRISCO DEPOT – Not quite right but has positives
* FIRST LIEUTENANT – Wont surprise me if he is the one
* BOBS WORTH is the selection

Selection

Win BOBS WORTH 5/1 at various including paddy power bet365

If betting each way on this race today note that sky bet365 and paddy power
are all offering 5 places instead of the usual four.

Hennessy Gold Cup Statistics

* Horses with 6-18 career starts do best
* Recent winners had the following National Hunt runs
* 20-12-16-23-10-12-11-6- 6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16
* Horses with few runs in Handicaps dominate
* The winners had the following runs in Handicaps
* 5-0-21-0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 14-3-12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* Finishing 1st-2nd last time is very helpfull
* 16 of the last 20 winners were 1st or 2nd last time
* Two of the four that were not finished 3rd
* I looked at horses that had raced that season
* None of the winners came from a Non Handicap Graded race
* No Seasonal debutant won without Grade 1 form
* Second-season chasers have the best recent record
* They have won 9 of the last 13 renewals
* Since 1992 Seasonal debutants aged 9 or more are 1-44
* The only 9yo debutant to win was Denman in 2009
* Few hennessy winners have headgear
* I Looked at past winners with No Grade 1 or Grade 2 form
* Those with 9 or more career starts doing that were 1-50
* That was 40/1 shock Sibton Abbey in 1991
* No past winner came from a Hurdles race
* No past winner came from a Grade 2 Chase first time out
* As a rule 6 year old debutants with Grade 1 form are fine

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