M e s s a g e   T h o u g h t s

Mainly a Newmarket and York based message for full members today. Done lots of races at each track. I have probably gone a few places
I shouldn’t have done but I had a fair crack at both cards.

We will have some serious business at Chepstow again in
the next few months. One of my favourite tracks and no
doubt some fascinating battles to come. Today though is
probably a day to leave it alone here. Both Chepstow and
Hexham are pretty average cards. I have done a few little
National Hunt lines at both meetings. That opens up the
analysis but I have to say nothing excited me. It seems a
very bland piece of work and Knowing what both tracks
can and will offer in the future I am not interested today.

F r i d a y ‘s   S u m m a r y

Over the months and years I’m sure York has beaten me
more than not and I still rate it my worst track. Despite
that yesterday we finished a long way ahead and picked
it apart seemingly very easily and that contributed to a
very smart message. I thought I more than held my own
with the National Hunt business. I concentrated mainly
at York. Some very smart staking in the first two races
left us level when we could have gone behind. Shortlisted
the 3.05 winner but My choice was only 4th. There was
another setback in the Maiden. Late winners El Lail and
Trip The Light in a split stake bet made sure we had the
best of it at York. The main bet though was MUSNAD
each way at 8/1. He finished 2nd so a small profit on a
reasonably good bet. Before the race MUSNAD drifted
badly out to 16/1 and I was very concerned that he was
one of those bets that mysteriously sink without trace
and that fear increased when he came out in last place
at the start. Then to my surprise he ran his race and it
looked like he had won the race storming clear and he
went to as low as 1.06 in running. Sadly though he was
caught very late by another I shortlisted and we ended
up with only the place and a small profit. Overall that
was enough to contribute to a very decent message.

For Full Members my strongest bet today runs in the 4.40
at York.

You get immediate access to the full member area on joining
so if you were to join before 4.40 you can pick that up inside.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

Todays Free Saturday Tip

We are on a roll here on the free blog with winners at 18/1 and 6/1
over the past two weekends.

Winning runs mean little really however.
More important is that over a year profits add up to more than expendature.
Rather than post up a shortie here today to try and manipulate a three in a row sequence we are going for a highly speculative long odds selection on long term value principles.

N e w m a r k e t  2.05

5/4 Strong Suit, 9/4 Chachamaidee, 6/1 Maqaasid
12/1 Rimth, 20/1 Across The Rhine, 20/1 Giant Sandman
25/1 Elshabakiya, 25/1 Lechevalier Choisi.

* The Challenge Stakes is a Group race over 7f
* There are 21 renewals since 1990
* This is always an interesting Group race
* You want a horse with 5 and 14 career starts
* 19 of the last 21 winners had between 5 and 14
* Horses with 13 or more runs have struggled here
* ACROSS THE RHINE fails that and looks exposed
* GIANT SANDMAN is also too exposed from a 6f race
* CHACHAMAIDEE is on the borderline with 14 runs
* There are some factors about her I dislike
* CHACHAMAIDEE is a Filly
* No Fillies aged 4 or 5 have won this race and she is 4
* No fillies won with 13 or more runs
* No fillies won dropping from a  Mile like her
* CHACHAMAIDEE is not like any female winners
* There are just 3 winners that had 13 or more runs
* None of these dropped from a Mile
* CHACHAMAIDEE  doesnt seem safe
* MAQAASID is a 3yo filly as were 4 winners
* None however were absent more than 7 weeks
* MAQAASID has been absent over 10 weeks
* All fillies aged 3 had at least 6 runs that season
* MAQAASID only has 5 runs this year
* MAQAASID just falls short because of these issues
* LECHEVALIER CHOISI has a shaky profile
* He is 3 and has an absence
* No 3 year old with 9 + runs won with his absence
* He is also short on backclass as well
* RIMTH just falls short as a 3yo filly
* She has a lot of positives but two negatives
* All 3yo fillies had more runs that season than her
* They all achieved more than she did last time out

S h o r t l i s t

* STRONG SUIT is the highest rated horse here
* He is 3 and has a 74 days absence
* There were 10 winners aged 3
* None of these were absent 7 or more weeks
* That raises a doubt about STRONG SUIT
* STRONG SUIT has raced just 4 times this year
* Horses aged 3 with 1-2-3-4 runs this year are 1-39
* That was Kahal back in 1997
* He was lighter raced and had a recent race
* There is an argument against STRONG SUIT
* His absence and runs this year may leave him short
* His Class and rating demands he gets full respect

* ELSHABAKIYA was my 16/1 each way bet last Saturday
* She finished fast and came second at Ascot
* Fillies aged 3 have won 4 renewals of this race
* They all had 7-12 runs like her
* They all finished 1-2-3-4 last time out
* They all had 6-7-8 runs that season like her
* Similar horses had a 4-7 record in this race
* ELSHABAKIYA comes out very well
* She is similar to 2007 winner Miss Lucifer
* She came from the October Stakes just as she does
* Dont worry about the price
* This is a race that has seen several big shocks

Selection – ELSHABAKIYA 33/1 Each Way
Go with bet365 ladbrokes or stanjames who pay 1/4 odds
33/1 also available at paddypower but they only pay out 1/5 odds

Best wishes
Guy

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Posted under horse racing tips