Look For Love At Your Bookmaker

W o l v e r h a m p t o n  2.05

7/2 Monsieur Pontaven, 4/1 Look For Love
9/2 Gala Spirit, 5/1 Blue Noodles, 7/1 Kyncraighe
8/1 Misere, 14/1 Rise To Glory, 16/1 July Days
25/1 Portrush Storm, 25/1 Yours, 33/1 Kwik Time.

* This is a 7f handicap for 0-55 rated horses
* KWIK TIME didnt run well enough just 4 days ago
* MISERE is a 4yo filly down from a Mile
* Similar 4yo fillies were 1-77 which isnt promising
* YOURS – All 4yo fillies to win ran better than her last time
* PORTRUSH STORM is a mare down in distance
* None managed that as old as her and she lacks backclass
* RISE TO GLORY – Beaten a long way over 7f last time
* No 4yo overcame that with a run in the past month
* GALA SPIRIT has a reasonable form chance
* I cant rule her out but something bothers me
* She is an older mare with 1 run in 92 days
* I looked at all mares with recent runs
* They all had at least 1 more in the previous 7 weeks
* GALA SPIRIT doesnt and looks underraced
* She may get away with it but I’d rather take her on
* JULY DAYS is weak as a mare absent 128 days
* Similar horses have a poor strike rate in these races
* If she wins it will be because she is well handicapped
* She faces a tough absence though and is un safe

S h o r t l i s t

* BLUE NOODLES is an exposed 6yo from a 6f race
* He has a recent run and Class 4 form
* That good recent run just scrapes him on a shortlist
* I’d have prefered him not to have come up in trip
* KYNCRAIGHE is an exposed 4yo from a 7f race
* Fit and running well recently he is shortlistable
* The similar 4 year olds that won were highweights though
* MONSIEUR PONTAVEN is an exposed 5yo from 7f
* Not a bad profile but he is very short on backclass
* I still found 1 winner like him
* That horse did have 5lbs less weight
* MONSIEUR PONTAVEN has won twice before
* Both times he won he had blinkers
* He doesnt wear any headgear today and additional worry
* I shortlist him but low backclass leaves him unimpressive
* LOOK FOR LOVE is 4 and has a recent race over 8f
* He is unexposed and has just Class 4 form
* I found 2 similar winners and shortlist him

Selection

So few of these have any backclass and its wide open. I had
4 shortlisted and there are horses that are not that could be capable of winning it. I thought the best option statistically was LOOK FOR LOVE but I am also drawn to the jockey on KYNCRAIGHE a horse thats looked like he was crying out for strong handling and I can see him coming late and going close. This race dangerous as it is might be best approached by a split stake bet giving us a good chance of covering bases.

LOOK FOR LOVE 13/2  Win Bet vc – s james – blue sq

KYNCRAIGHE 7/4 Place Bet on Betfair

 

Also worth a quick note today is the opportunity to bag a bit of free cash from bet365. Worth mentioning here as it is open to existing customers as well as new ones.

On Monday the 6rd February (8pm), Liverpool take on Tottenham at Anfield and bet365 are again offering a £50 free in-play bet offer for the match for new and existing customers. See their site for full info.  Dependign on yoru nature either see it as an extra value  gamble or alternately seek to hedge the qualifing bet to leave a £50 free bet net of significant risk.

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on February 4, 2012

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