Mathematician Betting Christmas Newsletters

Welcome to members of the Mathematician Newsletter.
Christmas is approaching and to mark that  I have decided
to run a series of free newsletters for you in the run up to Christmas
or more specifically the Welsh National on Dec 27th.

Over the series of newsletters I hope I can give you some fresh
ideas that might add to your enjoyment of betting

There is also a more tangible offering of a Christmas discount on membership
for those of you seeking to upgrade yourself from free to full member status.

Today’s Newsletter

* Welsh Grand National
* Statistics in Betting
* Profiles – Precedents – Perspective
* A Negative about to run
* A Cheap Price Christmas Deal on Full Membership

I will try and persuade you to join Mathematician betting
but I also want to try and teach you a little about my approach to racing.
My hope is that some of it rubs off on you and benefits you longer term.
But in addition I plan to give you a few winners. I also plan to
talk about the work and analysis we do and why we do it
and when I can apply it to the racing I will. Hopefully I will
give you a couple of winners but my major aim in these
newsletters is to sort one of my favourite races out soon.

 
2012 Welsh  Grand  National

This is a big target race for the service and I will be doing
a lot of work on this race and I will try my best to find the
winner and my plan is to finish the Christmas newsletters with this.

 
Statistics In Betting

Many people talk about whether statistics work in finding
winners. There are lots of statistical punters out there but
many don’t see the value in that approach. That debate is
a red herring. It’s a waste of time. It’s the wrong question.

A Dictionary definition of Statistics

” The mathematics of the collection, organization and
interpretation of numerical data”

The key word there is interpretation. No two people look
at statistics in the same way. It’s too broad a description
and it’s meaningless. Many who dislike using statistics
are using them without even knowing. Many that do like
statistics are not using them properly anyway so as far
as I am concerned it’s a completely meaningless debate.

I myself however would fall firmly in the camp of believing that
it is better to be aware of the lessons history has to teach us
than to be operating completely blind to them.

 

Profiles – Precedents – Perspective

Each Day in my daily message I like to run profiles and
I will give you examples shortly. These profiles could be
individual horses or individual races. I like my bets to be
on horses that have profiles like other winners. If a horse
has won with a certain profile in similar races then I have
found a Precedent. If you find Precedents of horses that
win then you have got a far better perspective in the race.
I will give you an example in last Saturdays Hennessy.

Example One

Hennessy Gold Cup – BOBS WORTH Won 5/1

* Look at 7 year olds having their seasonal debut
* Take those 7 year olds that had Grade 1 form before
* Horses with that profile won 4 past Hennessy’s
* They won in 2001 2005 2007 2010
* Two of the 4 came from the RSA Chase as he does
* The 4 winners had 18 11 11 12 National Hunt starts
* BOBS WORTH was a close match with 10 starts
* These 4 winners had 6-4-5-3 previous Chase runs
* We know 10 of the last 14 winners had 3-7 Chase starts
* BOBS WORTH is ideal with 4 Chase starts
* BOBS WORTH had a smart profile

Thats a simple example of a Good Profile. I told members
to back BOB’S WORTH in the Hennessy because I knew
there were several winners of the race with similar profiles.
I had Precedents and because of that a better perspective.

Example Two

A LITTLE SWIFTER Won 7/2

This was my only bet on Sunday and this was based on
a profile I discovered in a Mares Beginners Chase. These
races are very rare and not many will even think to look
at what sort of horses win these races. I put the time in
and I found a remarkable record from horses just like her.

* Horses that dropped from 2m 4f or more
* Having a run within 50 days
* Aged 5-6-7-8
* Completed their last race without falling
* Having between 8 and 15 National Hunt Starts
* There were 12 horses with this profile and 8 won
* They finished W W 3 W 2 W W F W W 3 W
* A LITTLE SWIFTER has this profile
* The 2004 2007 2008 2009 winners of this race had it
* Not bad when you consider the 2010 2011 were not run
* A LITTLE SWIFTER had to be my bet

The Profile gave me a Precedent and therefore Perspective
and a good priced winner as the only bet of the day. Don’t
get me wrong they don’t all win and I make mistakes and
misjudge things like everybody else but I don’t tip at short
prices and you can afford to do that with good results.

Example Three

ROLAND WON 11/2 ( Advised when 12/1)

This profile was found only yesterday and this is another
great example of the type of analysis this service offers.
The race was a 2yo selling race over a Mile. There aren’t
many people that would see this sort of race as one for
special study but in fact they are. The following analysis
was sent in the members email on Thursday at Lingfield.

* This is a 2yo seller over a Mile
* By far the best record are horses from 8f Nurseries
* Horses coming from 8f Handicaps
* Between 4 and 12 career starts
* No form beyond a Class 4 race
* No previous wins before
* There were 8 horses with this profile
* They finished W 7 W 5 W 3 W W
* ROLAND shares that 5-8 record

Members have had these three profiles given to them
only in the last six days and all were advised as bets.
Analysis like it has kept us amongst the best racing
services in the game for many years. We are about
to enter our Thirteenth year and the proof of success
is that we rarely ever advertise for members. People
who join see the quality of this service and most of
our membership have joined through word of mouth.

 
N e x t   N e w s l e t t e r

A Negative Profile About to Run

I will do one in the next few days and will give you
an example of a Negative profile that has yet to run.
This horse should start favourite but I will show you
that win lose or draw this horse will be attempting
to do something that has “never been done before”.

 
Christmas Deal

As mentioned earlier I would like to offer you
the chance to buy yourself the Christmas present
of a test period of full membership of my service.

There are two key elements to this deal.

#1 – A significantly discounted first months fee.

#2 – An enhanced above normal no quibble refund Guarantee period.

In effect you can decide after Christmas if you believe the
service was worth paying for or not.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/christmas-offer-2012.asp

I will speak to you again soon
Best Wishes

Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
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Posted under horse racing tips