N e w m a r k e t 2.05
11/4 Pekan Star, 7/2 Kirthill, 7/1 Licence To Till
8/1 Taqleed, 8/1 Tiger Reigns, 10/1 Classic Punch
10/1 Demolition, 12/1 Prince Of Johanne
16/1 Sour Mash, 25/1 Starkat, 33/1 World Heritage.
* This is a 10f Handicap in Class 2
* There are only 33 of these handicaps in August.
* SOUR MASH and STARKAT lack fitness
* WORLD HERITAGE doesnt appeal
* I want to take on PEKAN STAR the favourite
* Horses aged 4 won 16 of the 33 races
* None like PEKAN STAR had under 5 runs
* Those like him with 1-2 runs that year were 0-26
* Those beaten 6 + lengths last time were 0-60
* PEKAN STAR fails all these angles
* He has much potential but he comes out badly
* PRINCE OF JOHANNE – Doesnt come out well enough
* TIGER REIGNS is an exposed 5yo from a 10f race
* I found 2 similar winners but they had 11lbs less weight
* DEMOLITION is underraced this season
* None of the 33 winners were aged 7 or more like him
* CLASSIC PUNCH is a little underraced for an 8yo
* None of the 33 winners were aged 7 or more like him
* I see him as unsafe but not out of it
S h o r t l i s t
* LICENCE TO TILL – Good profile if handling ground
* KIRTHILL has a decent profile
* TAQLEED is 4 with 5-12 runs and 1-2-3 that year
* I found 4 similar winners but all were 1-2-3-4 last time out
* TAQLEED was beaten a bit further than all of these
* I still respect him as he had excuses last time
* I hated his profile and he was eased once beaten
* He is priced up here on his last run
* Several of todays horses beat him that day
* Only just though and TAQLEED was favourite last time
* Excuses before that he shouldnt be 8/1
* TAQLEED each way looks a decent option
8/1 at various including bet 365, ladbrokes , tote , sky bet
Cheers Guy
PS Ladbrokes have just upped their new account free bet offer to £50 to tie in with the soccer season kicking off. Knowing them this is a temporary thing and it will probably drop again to something smaller in the near future.
So if you don’t yet have a ladbrokes account today might be a smart day to open one
Posted under horse racing tips
This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on August 6, 2011