Mathematician Christmas Newsletters

As I mentioned in the previous newsletter

I promised you I would be sending you a sample of a Negative Profile

I have that for you here today for am upcoming Saturday race
where we have a horse trying to do something no horse has done in the last 21 years.

Also for the Welsh National I have some early research into sire stats.

These sire stats are of course just one componant of a total race assessment.

I will give you more later as research is done.

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Don’t Forget – Christmas Sale Now On

Get my analysis of multiple live races each day

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/christmas-offer-2012.asp

*****************************************

 

S a t u r d a y s R a c i n g

C h e l t e n h a m 2.30

Paul Stewart IronSpine Charity Challenge Gold Cup

(Handicap Chase) Grade 3 Cl1 2m5f

UNIONISTE v WALKON

This race is run on Saturday. I will be doing full analysis

in my daily message on the day but I wanted to show a

very interesting difference between these two horses as

they are Joint Favourites and both are fancied to win it.

UNIONISTE

On Saturday Paul Nicholls will probably be upbeat and

positive about this 4 year old. There will be many people

backing him and if UNIONISTE manages to win then the

majority will collect their winnings without any idea that

he is trying to do something no horse like him has done

before. Thats not to say he wont win. He could easily do

it but unless you understand the Context of the bet you

are placing and appreciate what you are backing him to

do then you may as well not worry about the intelligent

side of gambling and go and buy a scratch card instead.

* Consider the following

* Since 1991 Cheltenham have had 477 Handicap Chases

* Thats 477 Handicap Chase at any distance in any class

* No 4 year old has ever won one of these 477 races

* No 4 year old has ever placed in one of these 477 races

* UNIONISTE is trying to become the first to do that

* Admittedly only 3 horses aged 4 have tried

* These 3 horses all failed to finish

* Original Fly- Always behind – tailed off and pulled up

* Whimper – Towards rear of midfield struggling when Fell

* Frosted Grape – Weakening and No Chance when Fell

Now if UNIONISTE wins he will have done something no

horse has done in the last 21 years. If he does win many

that back him will congratulate themselves saying how a

4 year olds was throw in and how skillfull it was to choose

him. Very few will understand how 4 year olds have done

and they will collect their winnings ignorant of the facts.

WALKON

This horse is the Joint Favourite with Unioniste and has

the more interesting profile of the two.

* Horses with 6-7-8-9 Chase stars dominate this race

* They have won 8 of the last 9 renewals of this race

* WALKON matches that with 6 Chase starts

* Horses with recent races dominate this race

* WALKON comes from the Paddy Power Gold Cup

* The 1997 2006 2009 2010 2011 winners did the same

* They all finished 1-2-3-4-5 in the Paddy Power like him

I thought the WALKON v UNIONISTE comparison was

fascinating and on the above data surely WALKON is

the better bet at the prices and I would also consider

him in the match bet if anything around even money.

 

 

W E L S H N A T I O N A L

SIRES PERFORMANCE RATINGS

BASED ON A COMBINATION OF 3 FACTORS

STAMINA – CLASS – GROUND

Using Sire Statistics is interesting and helpful and there

is merit in this approach but it is a bit Amateurish if not

done properly. You can fully trust Sire statistics. Partly

as many racecourses have misleading distances. This

sounds stupid but some races are run over an entirely

different distance to those advetised. Then you have a

lot of Clerk of the Courses calling the ground wrong as

I’m sure you will know. After that you have many races

that are falsly run which undermines the stats anyway.

That said it is still usefull to understand how likely any

horse is to perform under certain conditions. It can help

and although this method is only a smaller piece of the

overall jigsaw it is a nevertheless a piece we should do.

 

* What we do know is this

* The Welsh National winner has to stay 3m 5f

* He has to do that in a High Class race

* He will have to do that on Soft or Heavy ground too

 

I dont want to just look at a Sires record. After all I may

find that a Sire has bred a 3m 5f winner but if thats won

in a selling race on fast ground it’s meaningless when I

try and work out if a horse can win a Welsh National.

* I have looked at all the Sires in the Welsh National

* I have looked for their winners over 3m 3f or more

* I have then looked at how many did it in Class races

* Finally how many of those did that on bad ground

 

 

WELSH NATIONAL

SIRE PERFORMANCE RESULTS

* The following results are in order of my findings

* The Top of the table have the best records

* These are most likely to win Class long distance races

* And most likely to do that on bad ground

 

Winners at 3m 3f + in Class 2 + on Softer Ground

JOIN TOGETHER 5-53 record

TEAFORTHREE 3-30 record

GILES CROSS 2-34 record

BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE 1-15 record

LE BEAU BAI 1-17 record

MICHEL LE BON 1-20 record

VIKING BLOND 0-3 record

ALFIE SPINNER 0-3 record

SONA SASTA 0-5 record

QUARTZ DE THAIX 0-6 record

BRADLEY 0-8 record

UNIVERSAL SOLDIER 0-9 record

ROALCO DE FARGES 0-14 record

ALFIE SHERRIN- 0-16 record

 

 

Detailed Results of the Findings

JOIN TOGETHER

* His sire has 610 winners

* 43 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 8 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 5-53 record

* Includes a Midlands National winner and Grand National 2nd

 

TEAFORTHREE

* His sire has 608 winners

* 20 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 4 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 3-30 record

 

GILES CROSS

* His sire has 471 winners

* 20 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 5 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 2-34 record

 

BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE

* His sire has 611 winners

* 8 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 3 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 1-15 record

* The sires had a Midlands N ational winner on Heavy 4m 1f

 

LE BEAU BAI

* His sire has 150 winners

* 7 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 1-17 record

* That winner was Le Beau Bai winning last years race

 

MICHEL LE BON

* His sire has 71 winners

* 2 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 1-20 record

* That winner came in a Cross Country race though

 

VIKING BLOND

* His sire has 11 winners

* None of these came at 3m 3f or more

* None of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-3 record

* Best return was this horse placing over 3m 3f on heavy

 

ALFIE SPINNER

* His sire has 481 winners

* 9 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-3 record

* The best match was a second in a Hennessy Gold Cup

 

SONA SASTA

* His sire has 29 winners

* 2 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 0 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-1 record

* Sires got a 0-5 record at 3m 3f + in Class 2 + none placed

 

QUARTZ DE THAIX

* His sire has 37 winners

* 1 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 0 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-6 record

* None of the 6 losers even placed

 

BRADLEY

* His sire has 361 winners

* 14 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 0 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-8 record

* Best match is a 3rd place over 3m 4f on heavy

 

UNIVERSAL SOLDIER

* His sire has 141 winners

* 5 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 0 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-9 record

* The sires had a 2nd in the Eider Chase on Heavy 4m 1f

 

ROALCO DE FARGES

* His sire has 91 winners

* 4 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-14 record

* There was a Grand National winner on good ground

* Several in the 0-14 record placed in these races

 

ALFIE SHERRIN

* His sire has 347 winners

* 9 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-16 record

* Only 1 of 16 placed and that was Alfie Sherrin in Irish National

*****************************************

Don’t Forget – Christmas Sale Now On

Get my analysis of multiple live races each day

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/christmas-offer-2012.asp

*****************************************

Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

Posted under horse racing tips