Racing at Lingfield

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Hollow Lane Handicap (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-95) 1m4f

9/4 Lovers Causeway, 5/1 King Olav, 6/1 Distinctive Image
6/1 Taaresh, 8/1 Mighty Clarets, 8/1 Scamperdale
14/1 Record Breaker, 20/1 Pelham Crescent
25/1 Mister New York, 100/1 Rugell.

This is a 12f Handicap for horses rated 0-91 and we have 176 similar races at this time of year.
Taking a few of these out It is hard to see RUGELL winning.
PELHAM CRESCENT doesnt look fit or ready to win.
MISTER NEW YORK looks unsafe to me.
SCAMPERDALE ‘s done all his winning at 10f and shorter and may not be at his best trip.
He’s 9 and comes up in distance and the only horses his age doing that had Group Class
form in the past and he does not.
RECORD BREAKER is another up in trip.
For him to have matched any winners he needed to have a more recent run
and ran better last time out. TAARESH won a 12f handicap last time out.
It was a weaker race and he won it
with a long absence. It bothers me he moves from 0-75 to this 0-91 grade and has a 10lbs higher mark.
He is up 2 grades and with 1 run only since last June I think he’s unsafe.
I don’t have a big problem statistically with DISTINCTIVE IMAGE but
we have better profiles and he doesn’t look well handicapped. I do respect
KING OLAV but I prefer others in this race.
I thought  MIGHTY CLARETS came out well but there is a strong profile.

* LOVERS CAUSEWAY has a strong profile
* Horses aged 4
* Winning a 12f Handicap last time
* Running within 2 weeks
* Carrying less than 9st 9lbs
* No form beyond a Class 3 Grade before
* Between 9 and 20 career starts
* Horses with this profile had a 8-11 record
* Those ridden by Professional jockeys were 8-9
* They finished W W W W 3 W W W W
* LOVERS CAUSEWAY has that profile


currently 5/2 at s james

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