K e m p t o n   4.45

4/1 Ashbrittle, 5/1 Semi Colon, 6/1 The Reformer
13/2 Oscar Prairie, 8/1 Like A Hurricane, 8/1 So Fine
12/1 Woolfall Treasure, 14/1 Busker Royal, 16/1 Balzaccio
16/1 Glenstal Abbey, 16/1 Pause And Clause, 16/1 Ultravox
20/1 Dantari, 25/1 Tasheba, 33/1 Mister Snowball.

* This is a 2m 5f Handicap Hurdle
* There has been 18 renewals of this race
* The long history suggests two things
* We dont want exposed and experienced types
* Equally we dont want very inexperienced types
* We want to fall between the two extremes
* Past winners had the following National Hunt Runs
* 12 8 12 10 7 9 9 7 17 6 9 5 9 10 9 6
* Past winners had the following Hurdle Starts
* 12 8 9 6 7 9 8 7 16 6

I’d be looking for a horse thats unexposed. I would want
Under 17 National Hunt runs and ideally Under 13 runs.
I would be more interested of they had 6-12 Hurdle runs.

* ASHBRITTLE the favourite has just 3 career starts
* The above stats show all past winners had at least 5
* ASHBRITTLE shouldnt be seen as a negative though
* He is just not like any past winners of this race
* ASHBRITTLE – I dont see enough I like here
* SO FINE has only had 3 Hurdle runs
* Recent past winners had 12 8 9 6 7 9 8 7 16 6
* SO FINE doesnt interest me with just three
* The following horses look outclassed
* MISTER SNOWBALL – GLENSTAL ABBEY
* TASHEBA – I feel he is too exposed
* Horses aged 9 or more are 0-42 in this race
* LIKE A HURRICANE fails that and comes from a chase
* Just two runs this year I am not convinced
* No past dropped from 3m like him
* BALZACCIO has the same stable and same problem
* He comes from 3m chases and looks wrong
* BUSKER ROYAL – Wrong aged (9) and too exposed
* PAUSE AND CLAUSE is too exposed
* DANTARI is too exposed
* WOOLFALL TREASURE – Has a reasonable exposure
* Not convinced he is in food enough form though

S h o r t l i s t

* OSCAR PRAIRIE is fine 12 runs and 7 hurdle starts
* Not sure his  preparation is safe
* He had been Chasing before a run in a Jumpers Bumper
* Much depens how he takes to hurdling and to 2m 5f
* ULTRAVOX – A  bit too exposed but only just
* Positives elsewhere in his profile
* His stable are also in flying  form and money has come
* ULTRAVOX could be a sensible saver
* SEMI COLON – There are some big doubts about her profile
* No mares came from a Chase in any similar races
* I am shortlisting him for 3 reasons
* His number of runs and exposure is a big positive
* His trainer is outstanding
* Not enough similar types have tried to win with his profile
* That stops me makig him a negative
* SEMI COLON is not like any winners though
* THE REFORMER looks interesting
* He is a lightly raced 7 year old from a handicap
* I like his profile and one past winner was similar
* 1995 winner Fired Earth was uncannily similar
* Like him he dissapointed when last seen
* That was a better class race than this
* THE REFORMER started favourite that day and came 3rd
* Dropped in the weights he could bounce back in this

Selection
Split stake on
THE REFORMER 7/1 Win Bet
ULTRAVOX 16/1 Saver Bet

Nb blog comment: Ultravox has steamed in a fair bit since Full members got this earlier today. 10/1 coral available but looks like it will go soon.

See live market odds at

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-02-25/kempton-park/16-45/betting/

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Posted under horse racing tips