Racing Plus Handicap Hurdle

K e m p t o n   4.45

4/1 Ashbrittle, 5/1 Semi Colon, 6/1 The Reformer
13/2 Oscar Prairie, 8/1 Like A Hurricane, 8/1 So Fine
12/1 Woolfall Treasure, 14/1 Busker Royal, 16/1 Balzaccio
16/1 Glenstal Abbey, 16/1 Pause And Clause, 16/1 Ultravox
20/1 Dantari, 25/1 Tasheba, 33/1 Mister Snowball.

* This is a 2m 5f Handicap Hurdle
* There has been 18 renewals of this race
* The long history suggests two things
* We dont want exposed and experienced types
* Equally we dont want very inexperienced types
* We want to fall between the two extremes
* Past winners had the following National Hunt Runs
* 12 8 12 10 7 9 9 7 17 6 9 5 9 10 9 6
* Past winners had the following Hurdle Starts
* 12 8 9 6 7 9 8 7 16 6

I’d be looking for a horse thats unexposed. I would want
Under 17 National Hunt runs and ideally Under 13 runs.
I would be more interested of they had 6-12 Hurdle runs.

* ASHBRITTLE the favourite has just 3 career starts
* The above stats show all past winners had at least 5
* ASHBRITTLE shouldnt be seen as a negative though
* He is just not like any past winners of this race
* ASHBRITTLE – I dont see enough I like here
* SO FINE has only had 3 Hurdle runs
* Recent past winners had 12 8 9 6 7 9 8 7 16 6
* SO FINE doesnt interest me with just three
* The following horses look outclassed
* TASHEBA – I feel he is too exposed
* Horses aged 9 or more are 0-42 in this race
* LIKE A HURRICANE fails that and comes from a chase
* Just two runs this year I am not convinced
* No past dropped from 3m like him
* BALZACCIO has the same stable and same problem
* He comes from 3m chases and looks wrong
* BUSKER ROYAL – Wrong aged (9) and too exposed
* PAUSE AND CLAUSE is too exposed
* DANTARI is too exposed
* WOOLFALL TREASURE – Has a reasonable exposure
* Not convinced he is in food enough form though

S h o r t l i s t

* OSCAR PRAIRIE is fine 12 runs and 7 hurdle starts
* Not sure his  preparation is safe
* He had been Chasing before a run in a Jumpers Bumper
* Much depens how he takes to hurdling and to 2m 5f
* ULTRAVOX – A  bit too exposed but only just
* Positives elsewhere in his profile
* His stable are also in flying  form and money has come
* ULTRAVOX could be a sensible saver
* SEMI COLON – There are some big doubts about her profile
* No mares came from a Chase in any similar races
* I am shortlisting him for 3 reasons
* His number of runs and exposure is a big positive
* His trainer is outstanding
* Not enough similar types have tried to win with his profile
* That stops me makig him a negative
* SEMI COLON is not like any winners though
* THE REFORMER looks interesting
* He is a lightly raced 7 year old from a handicap
* I like his profile and one past winner was similar
* 1995 winner Fired Earth was uncannily similar
* Like him he dissapointed when last seen
* That was a better class race than this
* THE REFORMER started favourite that day and came 3rd
* Dropped in the weights he could bounce back in this

Split stake on
ULTRAVOX 16/1 Saver Bet

Nb blog comment: Ultravox has steamed in a fair bit since Full members got this earlier today. 10/1 Coral available but looks like it will go soon.

See live market odds at






Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on February 25, 2012

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