Racing Tip At York

Not our main full member bet of the day but we have a piece from our extra race analysis section for you.

YORK 2.45

Coral Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85)  2m2f

7/4 Descaro, 5/1 Head Hunted, 6/1 Tillietudlem, 8/1 Nemo Spirit 10/1 Act Of Kalanisi, 10/1 Dubara Reef, 10/1 Dulcie
12/1 Bollin Judith, 14/1 Sphinx, 25/1 Folk Tune.

* This is a Handicap over 18f for 0-82 rated horses
* October has had 41 handicaps like this over 17f-18f
* There were 85 similar races between September – November
* Horses from 13f or shorter had a 2-72 record
* None of these were exposed (0-22)
* None from 12f races were aged 5 or more (0-35)
* No horse doing had 8st 12lbs or more
* FOLK TUNE comes from 12f and fails all those angles
* NEMO SPIRIT also comes from 13f
* No horse managed that when aged 5 or more like him
* No horse managed that with his weight as well
* Aged 5 with only runs this season would worry me
* I think that and his weight and jump in trip hurt him
* I dont see him overcoming all those factors
* There was only 1 winner aged 9 or more
* SPHINX is surely too old as a 12 year old
* Especially with a 188 day absence as well
* DULCIE is a filly with 2 runs this season
* No filly won without at least 5 runs that season
* DULCIE looks underraced for a filly
* ACT OF KALANISI is a 4yo Male
* 4 year old males with 13 or more career starts are just 1-43
* Those running like him within a month were 0-35
* Those like him coming from 16f or shorter were 0-33
* ACT OF KALANISI doesnt come out well
* Its the Fillies aged 4 that do well in these races
* Male 4 year olds have a much weaker record
* I looked at 85 races between September and November
* I looked at Male 4 year olds coming from 14f or less
* Those that had 4 or more career starts were 0-53
* ACT OF KALANISI has a weak profile in my view
* TILLIETUDLEM  is a exposed 4yo Male
* In 41 similar races in October these types are 0-10
* I did find 3 winners like him in September races
* They all had more backclass than he does
* All 3 winners all ran within 2 weeks and he doesnt
* TILLIETUDLEM was beaten easily by DESCARO last time
* Even on better weight terms he will do well to reverse that form
* This is a harder race and he could well lack the class
* There is no encouragement from his profile
* DUBARA REEF is 3 and comes from a 3yo handicap
* Plenty of 3 year olds won like that with 7-12 starts
* None had 13 or more runs and DUBARA REEF has 14 runs
* DUBARA REEF is more exposed than ideal for a 3yo
* 3 year olds like him from 3yo handicaps over 14f won 2 races
* Those with 9 or more starts doing that were 0-9
* He really needs a few less runs to be ideal

POSSIBLES

* DESCARO is a exposed 4yo Male
* In 41 similar races in October these types are 0-10
* I did find 3 winners like him in September races
* They all had far more runs this year than he does
* They all had a lot more backclass as well
* All 3 winners all ran within 2 weeks and he doesnt
* That said he stays and won very easily last time
* Since running over longer trips he has looked progressive
* He probably has a far better chance than the stats imply
* This is a harder race though and he will be tested

SHORTLIST

* BOLLIN JUDITH is a 4yo filly with 19 career starts
* Fillies aged 4 with 13 or more starts were 3-18
* Those with 9st or lower running with 7 weeks are 3-13
* BOLLIN JUDITH has a good profile
* All her wins are on faster ground at 14f
* She stays 15f on soft ground seems to be fine
* She is from a stamina laden family but will she stay
* Interesting all 3 renewals of this race went to a Filly
* There are some concerns about trip and ground
* She has been underestimated for me in the betting
* I most fear Head Hunted in this race
* HEAD HUNTED is 3 and comes from a 2m handicap
* 3 year olds with that profile and 7-12 runs are 5-33
* Statistically he has a reasonable profile
* HEAD HUNTED has to show he stays

SPLIT STAKE BET

BOLLIN JUDITH 12/1 at bet365BoyleSportsCorals james
HEAD HUNTED 6/1 at bet365betfredLadbrokess james

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on October 9, 2010

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