Haydock   5.15

A racing tip for Haydock today

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over 5f
* SHOLAAN is 3 and comes down in trip
* I wanted more runs this year and couldnt match him
* He is not a negative but I see him as unsafe
* SHOLAAN could also bounce with 1 run since June
* Having a run 7 days ago  could also come too quickly
* ELUSIVITY – Not safe statistically from a Group 1 race
* KYLEAKIN LASS – Hard to see this 3yo filly winning again
* Especially as exposed as she is and up in class
* WEST COAST DREAM – Not well in and 1 run since July
* BEAU MISTRAL – Too exposed as a 3yo filly
* FACE THE PROBLEM is 4 and comes from 6f
* He is woefully short of runs this year doing that
* All 4yos doing that had at least 7 runs and he has just 4
* He has been put up 5lbs for getting beaten last time
* He’s not proven on the ground either
* LONG AWAITED – Not sure about his draw in stall 16
* Since 2007 there were 49 races at 5f here with 10 + runners
* Horses drawn 14 or more had a 2-57 record
* Both those winners were drawn 16 like him
* However each race had many non runners reducing the field
* Both horses were running effectively from stall 12
* Statistically I have problems with her
* Looked at 4 year olds with Class 2 form without a recent run
* I found a weak 1-47 record and that winner wasnt unexposed
* Reluctant to ignore him as he loves soft and is very fast
* My stats say No and the Draw also undermines his chance
* STEPS – Not convinced – on a career high mark from stall 1
* Profile wise he is just a bit short of what I want
* STEPS isnt too far away though so I respect him

Shortlist

* JEDWARD – Stats say no – didnt do enough last time
* I’d keep her on side though and promote her weak profile

* CHEVETON has a much better all round profile than most
* He won this race in 2010 with 8lbs more weight

Selection

Each Way CHEVETON 13/2
bet365 – william hill – VC

Posted under horse racing tips