Mathematician 162

Saturday 6th September

2 Account Bets in the 7.50pm Full Members Only

1 Further Selection in the 7.20pm

Todays Other Non-Account Selection

Wolverhampton 7.20

GARSTANG 16/1

Win Bet

( blog comment: 16/1 earlier when advised to full members best now as I type 14/1 bet365, betfred , betfair )
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The weather has destroyed the Turf Racing today but I like Wolves tonight. GARSTANG (7.20pm) is not an account bet its just a normal selection but at 16/1 well worth a bet. The Racing Post suggest it hasnt been shaping like it was about to win but I disagree and tipped it recently when a non runner and I have seen three races its run recently that suggests to me its about to win somewhere and I think this is a big chance and only the competetiveness of the race stops me making him a Full bet.

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T O D A Y ‘ S R A C I N G

WOLVERHAMPTON 7:20

GET A BONUS AT WILLIAMHILL HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo+,0-65) 5f216y

5/1 Ryedane, Shakespeare´s Son, 6/1 All You Need, Littledodayno, 8/1 Cool Sands, 10/1 Back In The Red, Morse, 14/1 Danzig Fox, Grimes Faith, 16/1 Garstang, Hamaasy, Royal Challenge, 33/1 Sion Hill.

SELECTION – GARSTANG

This is a 0-61 handicap just short of 6f. Wolverhampton have had 31 of these races in September. I think you need an experienced horse with at least 13 runs as 29 of
the 31 winners had that (others 2-72) and I also think you need many runs this year. Horses that didnt have at least 7 runs that year had a 2-109 record. A Good recent run is important as well. You dont really want a horse thats come here off the back of a poor run. I wanted to oppose SHAKESPEARS SON who is one of only 2 that have to come from 5f. He looks underraced and I dont want a horse coming from a 3yo handicap with Topweight. I thought he had a weak profile. I am also going to oppose HAMAASY who looks underraced and has the longest absence to overcome
when the joint oldest horse. SION HILL didnt run well enough last time and neither did GRIMES FAITH. The other 5f horse BACK IN THE RED looks underraced this year and I dont want him. DANZIG FOX looks to have a weak profile as the least experienced runner. I dont want MORSE from the draw. COOL SANDS is not for me drawn in stall 1 having had just 1 runs since July. There will be a lot fitter
horses that him today. ROYAL CHALLENGE wouuldnt be my first choice. I dont want LITTLEDODAYNO whose the only filly in the race. In the 31 races here at Wolverhampton in September fillies that had 9st 6lbs or more had a bad 0-42 record . LITTLEDODAYNO won last time in a key piece of form as she beat RYEDANE half a length and ALL YOU NEED a couple of lengths over Course and Distance last week. Both RYEDANE and ALL YOU NEED are better off at the weights today. Watching the tape I think ALL YOU NEED may just be the weaker of the trio and I think RYEDANE may come out best today. However its G A R S T A N G that is my main interest in this race.

I tipped GARSTANG at Chester a couple of weeks ago when he was a Non runner. I felt at the time that his stable were in form – he was well handicapped. His sand mark has dropped 15lbs this year. GARSTANG had been catching my eye on tape recently having been running himself fit. He really caught my eye at Pontefract two runs ago in a
0-75 handicap where he badly missed the break and was repeatedly stopped in running and finished so well he was capable of far more. I fancied him at Chester but he did not run as rain came down. I swerved him last time out at Lingfield as it was a 0-80 handicap and just out of his depth but his run wasnt without promise. Two furlongs out he was in last place as he had been all race but he came late and made some ground up without being knocked about and I thought that was another encouraging run in a far better race than this contest. This is now a 0-67 contest and a big drop in class for a horse thats won over course
and distance. Not keen on the stable but he is drawn well and at his price GARSTANG should be given the chance to show he’s coming into form. Look at it this way. This is a
Class 6 race. GARSTANGS last 33 races have been in Higher Class. His record in Class 6 when not having a long absence is 8 W W W 2 W 4 2 and some of those defeats are excusable. He has to be worth a bet.

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