Sandown  5.35

For Latest Live Odds See

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-09-01/sandown-park/17-35/betting/

* This is a 10f Handicap for 0-80 rated horses
* Lets start with the Draw and 15 similar races since 2001
* 13 of the 15 winners were drawn 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8
* Horses drawn in Stalls 1-8 have a 13-120 record
* Horses drawn in Stalls 9-16 have a 2-64 record
* Being drawn Under 9 gives you a far better chance
* No winners were drawn 14 or more
* CAPE EXPLORER – His profile is just about acceptable
* Wasnt enough for me to ignore Stall 15 though
* TALK OF THE NORTH – Unsafe profile and draw
* ICEBUSTER is out with a run this season
* SIM SALA BIM – Not right first time out
* HOT SPICE is underraced this year
* HIP HIP HOORAY looks worth opposing
* First of all she isnt  well drawn
* Shes a mare winning an 8f race last time
* No Female horse did that older than 3 and she is 6
* Without a recent race she leaves me cold
* POETIC LORD has problems from 7f
* He is a bit too exposed to be doing that
* Every winner aged 8 + had at least Class 2 form
* EAGLE NEBULA only has Class 4 form and is out
* QUIXOTE  3 and drops from 12f
* He’s a bit exposed doing that and has limited backclass
* I needed far fewer runs or more backclass to match him
* BRIGADOON is 5 and won last time
* I needed more backclass and runs this year

Acceptable Profiles

* KNOW NO FEAR scrapes through but isnt for me
* Huge doubt whether he will stay this far up the hill

* HIGHLAND DUKE – Acceptable profile but no more
* He should improve but he needs to

* MIZBAH is 3 and drops from 12f
* Almost all 3yo’s doing that had under 13 runs he has 14
* There was 1 winner reasonably close to him
* MIZBAH – Not a strong profile but enough to shortlist

* HURAKAN – Definate chance statistically
* Not keen a 7lbs claimer rides though

S e l e c t i o n

* NELSON4S BAY has a very strong profile
* NELSON4S BAY is 3 and comes up in distance from 8f
* Looked at similar types with Class 2 form and 5-8 runs
* Those with 1-5 runs this year and not beaten too far
* Similar horses had a strong 4-11 record
* Those with 9st or more were 4-8
* NELSON4S BAY stands out amongst these

7/1 each way at ladbrokes – blue square

Posted under horse racing tips