Mathematician 429

No Account Bet

1 Selection

Newmarket 5.05

RUN FOR EDE’S   2/1

Just one selection on a Rain hit Saturday.

There is one bit of 9/4 (Bet365) but RUN FOR EDE’S is 2/1 with most bookmakers.

I have done something in the Stewards Cup but have no strong view there after Goodwood has changed the ground. Other than that there are Five Previews in the message. Happy enough with these races but there is only one horse I fancy enough to make a selection and thats RUN FOR EDE’S. Not a brilliant price but she only has 6 opponents. The weather is spoling the summer at the moment and when its lashing down as it is today all we can do is keep mistakes down to a minimum and be selective. Thats why I havent had an account bet today. RUN FOR EDE’S ran really well last week on a Grade 1 track in a much better race. I dont see any of her rivals achieving that level. In a weird twist of handicapping because she’s been underrated for two recent wins and Sir Boss has been hit hard for two recent wins RUN FOR EDE’S gets quite a bit of weight from Sir Boss when really her last two runs suggest that she ought to be conceeding weight not recieving it. I think that makes her look solid. She is my only bet today and I just want to get one winner on a day the weather throws all kinds of danger at us. There will be the planned Sunday Message tomorrow.

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T O D A Y ‘ S    R A C I N G

One selection yesterday. DEAUVILLE FLYER won having
landed a big evening gamble. I suppose it all depends on what sort of price you got. He was 6/1 in plenty of places yesterday and 5/1 for most of the day but the money came in form him late and he has been returned a ridiculous 9/4. Once he was in a dule with Crocus Rose I was always confident he would stay better. Nice way to end a difficult July. Cant do any harm to the confidence and we start a Fresh month today.

Unusually a 2.30 message today on a Saturday. I know from
experience just how difficult todays cards are.
I felt my best chances came later on and with a poor weather forecast there is much more sense in sending a later message and allowing a bit more time to play some videos.

NEWMARKET 5.05

SPORTINGBET HANDICAP (CLASS 4)(4yo+ 0-85) 1m4f

2/1 Run For Ede’s, 9/4 Sir Boss, 5/1 Mubrook,  10/1 Clear Reef, 16/1 Force Group, 25/1 Rowan Rio, 33/1 Coeur De Lionne.

SELECTION –  RUN FOR EDE’S

The market has chosen SIR BOSS as the favourite ahead of
RUN FOR EDE’S and I dont really see why thats justified. I
fully respect SIR BOSS as an improving 4 year old and I dont have any strong objections to him at all but he has won his last 2 races which were only 0-58 and 0-77 races and his last run in that 0-77 was only a Class 5 handicap and having been raised 11lbs by the handicapper he now finds himself topweight. His last 2 handicap wins were hardly in quality races much as he did it well. Consider the fact RUN FOR EDE’S has just also won two handicaps. They were in 0-85 and 0-77 handicaps no worse at all than SIR BOSS and RUN FOR EDE’S has also ran a very decent 4th in a Class 2 handicap. RUN FOR EDE’S was a  strong 4th in a 0-104 handicap at Ascot. It was a C2 Heritage handicap. 12 of her 15 opponents would not even be allowed to run in this race. RUN FOR EDE’S was beaten only 1.75 lengths from 4lbs out of the handicap. Whilst SIR BOSS has seen his rating jump from 68 to 74 and now 85 its highly interesting that RUN FOR EDE’S having achieved a lot more
has seen her rating only go from 70 to 74. She has only gone up 4lbs for winning two handicaps and running 4th in a 0-104 handicap. Bizzarely that means SIR BOSS has to concede 9lbs and a jockeys allowance to RUN FOR EDE’S who surely has achieved much more. RUN FOR EDE’S surely has to be better value around 3/1 notwithstanding SIR BOSS may have more improvement. I think at these weights RUN FOR EDE’S has to be the better option. I respect some of the others but she must be hard to beat. MUBROOK has a chance and he is fine  statistically as a lightly raced 4 year old. He hasnt won a race though and he wasnt handicapped instead just running on merit as a 3 year old and thats left me thinking that he may well be rated accurately and may not be thrown in off his current mark. Neither FORCE GROUP or ROWAN RIO strike me as horses about to win. CLEAR REEF is another big runner with the ground coming right but he is both exposed and coming down over 2f in distance and horses that did that didnt score that well. He is a danger though but I dont see a better option than RUN FOR EDE’S

SELECTION –  RUN FOR EDE’S

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