N e w b u r y   2.05

This 3m Handicap Hurdle looks too competetive when there
are no past renewals of this race. Just wanted to make one or two
quick points having looked at all similar races.

TARVINI came out  badly as very few exposed horses win these races
if having an absence  of more than 7 weeks. You want backclass in
Graded form with this  profile and he lacks that and I didn’t see him as safe enough.

ALWAYS WAINING looks wrong as an exposed 11 year old with an absence.

LOVE OF TARA is the wrong type as a mare from a Graded hurdle.

I’d be against PAVILLON BLEU and SOUTH O4THE BORDER.

Not keen on THEATRICAL STAR hammered in a Novice Hurdle over 2m 4f last time.

SUPER VILLAN is wrong with just 2 runs so far this year from a Novice Handicap.

BUCK MAGIC is hard to read. I am going to oppose him but I could be wrong and it was close.
I looked at 6 year olds from handicaps with just 1 run this season. Those that had 4-5-6 runs
were excellent so he is not far away with 3 runs. If you take those with between 3 and 4 runs
the only winner had 12lbs less weight and 1 more run as well. I just think BUCK MAGIC falls short.

BENBENS has a testing absence and all similar 7 year old winners with a
break like that had Grade 1 form and he doesnt.

S h o r t l i s t

BLAZING BUCK – GODSMEJUDGE -IMPERIAL CIRCUS
CINDERELLA ROSE – LAMBORO LAD

* LAMBORO LAD is 7 years old with 9-20 runs
* He comes from a 3m Handicap Hurdle
* He has Class 2 form and no higher
* He runs within 2 weeks
* He has 11st or less
* He was beaten last time but ran within 12 lengths
* He has 4 + runs that season
* Only two horses had that profile in similar races
* Both horses won.
* LAMBORO LAD has the best profile of the 5
* Not convinced he has the class to win off bottomweight
* He does have the best profile though and is a fair price

Selection – LAMBORO LAD 10/1 + Each Way

Blog Comment: 10/1 now gone but 9/1 available at Ladbrokes & bet365

Posted under horse racing tips