SOUTHWELL 1.50

Toteexacta The Better Value Forecast Handicap
(CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100)  6f

5/2 Ingleby Arch, 7/2 Felday, 4/1 Esprit De Midas,
9/2 Confuchias, 6/1 Flowing Cape, 33/1 Indian Skipper.

This is a classy 6f handicap for 0-101 rated horses and we
have had 28 similar races at this time of year. Considering
the class of the race INDIAN SKIPPER shouldnt be able to
win from a seller.   GREAT CHARM  comes from a 0-75 in
Class 5 to a 0-101 in Class 2 and thats a stiff jump in class that may find him out. ESPRIT DE MIDAS has to go as a
3yo absent 200 days. No 3 year old had that absence and
none came from a 3yo handicap either. FLOWING CAPE
may not have done enough last time. Look at horses in the
28 races that were beaten 10 lengths or more last time out
you find older horses like FLOWING CAPE having a 0-43
record. I can give INGLEBY ARCH a chance but he has a
45 day absence. No horse aged 6 or more won when absent
over a month or more so statistically he does have question
marks to answer. CONFUCHIAS has one of those difficult
to read profiles and is respected but he has never run here
at Southwell. Neither has FELDAY but he has the strongest
profile for me because of the following.

* Horses from 7f Handicaps running within 7 weeks
* Finishing 1-2-3 last time out
* No Form in Group Class before
* 6 or more runs this season
* The record of all horses with that profile were 6-11
* They finished W 8 W 5 W 2 7 W 3 W W
* Horses aged 3 in that group had a 3-4 record
* FELDAY has the best profile for me

Felday now currently best priced 9/4 Betfred, ladbrokes, sky

Posted under horse racing tips