Tanley Lands the Maximum

GREAT LEIGHS 7:20 – BRENTWOOD HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo+,0-50) 5f

5/1 Rann Na Cille, Taboor, 6/1 Tanley, 7/1 Linnet Park,
10/1 Cranworth Blaze, 12/1 Scots W?Hae, Tittle, 14/1
Dubai To Barnsley, Reigning Monarch, 25/1 Young Ivanhoe.

* This is a 5f sprint handicap for 0-50 rated horses
* September and October have had 154 similar races
* This may be the first race I have written up at this track
* Felt it was worth a look in this race
* I am against REIGNING MONARCH
* He has never run at 5f before
* He has also had only 1 run since June
* SCOTS W?HAE is opposed as well
* Male horses that come from 3yo handicaps are weak
* With under 9 runs that season they had a 0-72 record
* SCOTS W’HAE fails that and other factors worry me
* He has had just 1 run since April
* He has never run at 5f before
* He is also coming from a 3yo handicap with 42 days off
* Horses that did that absent over a month were weak
* None of them came from a 6f race
* I want to avoid both Maiden runners as they are weak
* Horses that came from maidens were 2-96 in 154 races
* Those that had 4 or more career starts were 0-79
* CRANWORTH BLAZE is a filly from a maiden after 14 runs
* TITTLE is a filly from a maiden with 7 runs
* LINNET PARK is a 3 year old filly absent 42 days
* 3 year old fillies absent over a month won 5 of the 154 races
* None were claimer ridden as she is (0-37)
* None had 13 or more runs (0-33) as she has
* She also has to come from a 3yo handicap and a 6f handicap
* CHARLOTTE GREY is an exposed filly down from 7f
* I can find only 1 winner like that in 154 races
* She had a very recent run and CHARLOTTE GREY has 26 days off
* CHARLOTTE GREY is also drawn in stall 11
* Great Leighs has had 21 races at this trip so far
* Horses drawn 10 or more are (so far) 0-32 in all 5f races here
* That puts me off CHARLOTTE GREY
* Worries me TABOOR is a 10 year old absent 35 days
* There has been 384 low grade handicaps at 5f and 6f
* Horses aged 9 or more – absent a month or more were 0-52
* I extended the search and found the following
* Since 1993 between July and December we have 1442 races
* Thats 1442 races at 5f and 6f in Class 5-6-7 anywhere
* Horses aged 9 or more absent a month or more were 0-156
* I have to question whether TABOOR will be fit enough
* CARMINE ROCK is a 3yo filly beaten 17 lengths last time
* Looked at 3yo fillies that were beaten 10 + lengths last time
* With under 13 runs (she has 7 runs) they were 1-86
* With under 9 runs that season they were 1-108
* When coming from Class 5-6-7 as she does they were 0-107
* With 9st 9lbs or less they were 0-126
* CARMINE ROCK fails all those trends
* She is also drawn 12 which is the worst draw
* YOUNG IVANHOE was beaten 14 + lengths in a 3yo handicap
* Horses that lost by 10+lengths in low grade 3yo handicaps were 0-61
* YOUNG IVANHOE also has to drop down from 7f
* I looked at 3 year olds that came from 5f handicaps
* When they lost by 10 + lengths last time out they were poor
* With 4 or more career runs they were 1-132
* DUBAI TO BARNSLEY has that against him
* RANN NA CILLE is a filly absent 35 days
* Fillies absent a month or more coming from 5f races were 4-143
* All 42 aged 4 like RANN NA CILLE lost
* Her absence as an exposed filly would concern me
* There is one horse that stands out a mile statistically
* T A N L E Y should win this race in my view
* I have what I believe to be good arguments against every horse
* I rate TANLEY as having by far the strongest profile
* Horses that were Placed in a 3yo handicap within 2 weeks were 5-17
* That improves when you take out unfit and unfancied ones
* Not worried he has a 0-18 career record – so had several others
* Happy to overlook his draw in stall 10
* This is a 0-50 and he was beaten in a 0-66 last time out in a photo
* He was only beaten by a Marcus Tregoning horse last time
* TANLEY is a very confident bet

Posted under horse racing tips

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