Newmarket  3.20  The July Cup

Latest Odds for this race are at

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-07-14/newmarket/15-20/betting/

* The July Cup is a Group 1 race over 6f.
* This race is dominated by horses aged 3-4-5-6
* The last winner aged 7 or more was back in 1938
* ORTENSIA fails that as a 7yo and she is a mare
* GENKI fails that as a 8yo and is outclassed
* Recent winners raced 5 14 10 18 6 37 5 12 5 20 7 times
* I dont want an exposed horse as they rarely win
* THE CHEKA is exposed and rejected
* HAWKEYETHENOO is also exposed
* He comes from a Handicap no winners did that
* DANDY BOY has the same problem
* He is exposed and comes from a handicap as well
* KRYPTON FACTOR – Too exposed for a 4yo
* 21 of the Last 23 winners ran within a Month
* The two that didnt ran with absences of 45 and 54 days
* SEPOY fails that absent 105 days
* The next longest absence is 30 days
* SEPOY has been absent 3 times longer than all others
* MAYSON – Two poor runs in a row put me off
* He just seems to have gone off the boil
* I looked at all the recent winners aged 3
* They had the following career starts
* 5 5 6 7 5 7 7 8 4
* FIRE LILY has 11 and doesnt fit that well
* REPLY is 3 and comes from 7f race
* None managed that with 5 or more career runs
* REPLY has 8 and looks unsafe
* STRONG SUIT is similar to 2005 winner Pastoral Pursuits
* He is 4 has 1 run this year well beaten in the Queen Anne
* The 2005 winner had the same profile
* What bothers me most is all other horses raced more
* They all have 2 + runs this year and he doesnt
* STRONG SUIT hasnt ran at 6f since he was a 2yo
* I think that will catch him out with 1 run
* LIBRANNO has a small chance
* He is a bit exposed for a 4 year old
* I can live with that but the ground isnt ideal
* SIRIUS PROSPECT is 4 and has a chance
* He is not unlike 1993 winner Hamas
* It puts me off he was 50/1 in a Group 1 last time

S e l e c t i o n

* SOCIETY ROCK is fine statistically
* He is very close to the 2005 winner Marchand D’Or
* His main problem is he starts slowly these days
* He could lose ground at the start which is a worry
* I would trust the trainer to have sorted that
* He has said he wouldnt run if it was a problem
* I think he should be winning this
* None of his main rivals are without serious doubts

7/2 available at blue square and victor chandler

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Posted under horse racing tips