Mathematician Christmas Newsletter

This is the last message before my Welsh National

preview and I have decided to have a look today at

the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot which looks wide open.

I don’t expect to get the winner here given its heavy

ground and I could have chosen a much easier race

but it is the main race today so I will try and sort it.

Before I do that a look back at my last newsletter.

 

……….S t o p P r e s s ………..

The Private Service had just one bet yesterday

OVERRIDER WON by 7 lengths

Advised at 11/8 backed into 4/5

 

You can upgrade to the full service with a special offer

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/christmas-offer-2012.asp

 

Last Saturday’s Free Message

Never Been Done in 21 Years (Part 1)

If you remember in the last message I gave you a

statistic that showed no 4 year old has even won

a handicap chase at Cheltenham before. Many will

have been dissapointed that UNIONISTE overcame

that statistic to win last Saturday but I wasn’t. The

result was not good for me. I went with WALKON

and to finish second to UNIONISTE was a slightly

bitter result but I have always said that statistics

are simply a truthful checkable reflection of what

has happened in the past and I open admitted in

the message that only 3 horses aged 4 had tried.

You should not be thinking negatively about using

statistics because of that race. What you should

be thinking is where on earth you would ever find

a service that can give you that statistic and also

put it in its full context. I did say the horse could

easily win and all I was doing was trying to place

the race in it’s full context. Thats what I try to do.

 

Never Been Done in 21 Years (Part 2)

 

By some extraordinary coincidence I managed

to find another horse that was trying to win his

race trying to do something no horse has done.

It also shows the strength in depth of the service

that another horse was unearthed on the same

day when also doing something not done before.

He ran in a 2yo seller over 9f at Wolverhampton.

* I looked at every 2yo seller run before over 9f +

* Going 9f or more for a 2yo is a marathon distance

* No 2yo has ever won one without at least 3 races

* Inexperienced horses score very badly in these races

* RAINFORD GLORY started odds on with just 2 runs

* He was trying something no horse had done before

It seems incredible now to think we found two horses

on the day that were trying something no horses did

in 21 years. I told members that RAINFORD GLORY

had to be opposed despite being odds on in the race.

 

Advised Bet

WOZA MOYA

WON 4/1

 

Full members were given this as a bet last Saturday.

That more than made up for choosing Walkon rather

than Unioniste earlier in the day. It shows the range

our messages have. From high class chases to low

grade juvenile sellers and to find two horses having

to do something not done before it proves just that.

The win on WOZA MOYA ensured we won that day.

 

A s c o t 3.10

The Ladbroke (Handicap Hurdle)

(Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m

5/1 Balder Succes, 7/1 Cash And Go, 8/1 Lyvius

8/1 Ranjaan, 9/1 It´s A Gimme, 12/1 Olofi, Cause Of Causes

14/1 Into Wain, 16/1 Double Ross, 16/1 Kazlian

16/1 Princeton Plains, 20/1 Petit Robin, 20/1 Rattan

20/1 Rigidity, 20/1 Thomas Edison, 25/1 Bothy, 25/1 Dan Breen

25/1 First In The Queue, 25/1 Urbain De Sivola

40/1 Bar De Ligne, 40/1 First Avenue.

* This is a 2m Handicap Hurdle

* There are 8 past renewals of this race

* The race was abandoned in 2009 and 2010

* I looked at all similar races in December

* These are 2m Handicaps in Class 2 + with 12 + runners

* There are 17 of these races run since 2002

* These are at Ascot Sandown Newbury and Doncaster

4 Y e a r O l d s

* Horses aged are 0-34 in the 8 past renewals

* I look at all 17 similar races

* The last 20 horses aged 4 have been beaten

* Since 2006 they have a 1-41 record

* In the 17 races since 2002 they have a 4-65 record

* These were Verasi, Mon Michel, Monte Cinto and Overstrand

* The 4 year old winners had this in common

* They had 7 8 5 6 previous hurdle runs

* They had 1 2 2 2 runs since the previous June

* They had absences of 28 14 15 9 days

* 3 of the 4 winners aged 4 had Grade 1 form

* They all had a recent run finishing W 3 W W

* They all came from All aged races including 3 handicaps

* They all had 10st 13lbs or less

* BALDER SUCCES is a 4yo

* We know horses aged 4 are 0-34 in this race

* There were 4 winners aged 4 in other races

* Its a big help he won last time and has 8 hurdle runs

* It was a 4yo only race though

* All the 4yo winners came from all aged races

* They all had more weight than he does

* RANJAAN is a seasonal debutant absent 338 days

* RANJAAN is wrong and therefore opposed

* Theres an argument his stable are so good he shouldnt be

* Its a big ask though with just 4 hurdle runs

* He’s really had 3 as he fell very early in one race

* The 4yo winners had 7 8 5 6 hurdle starts and recent runs

* I cant justify going with RANJAAN

* KAZLIAN is also opposed as a 4yo

* I dont think he ran well enough last time out

* He doesnt have Grade 1 form either like most 4yo winners

* I just dont feel he can be backed after his last run

* LYVIUS is a 4yo and they are 0-34 in this race

* There were 4 that won other races

* Most of these had 2 runs that year and he has 1

* I looked at 4 year olds with 1 run this season

* I found 1 winner but he had 7 runs and Lyvius has 5

* LYVIUS won last time out which helps but there are doubts

* Very few 4yo winners came from high class races

* None that did it won or placed in them as Lyvius did

P r e v i o u s H u r d l e S t a r t s

* Past winners of this had the following hurdle starts

* 7 5 5 6 5 9 4

* Look at the 17 similar races run in December

* They had the following Hurdle runs

* 8 7 4 5 4 5 9 8 6 27 7 5 5 6 9 11 4

* 15 of the 17 winners had between 4 and 9 hurdle runs

* The only others had 11 and 27

* You want between 4 and 11 hurdle runs if possible

* PRINCETON PLAINS has 11 runs and an absence

* He also looks very harshly handicapped

* FIRST IN THE QUEUE is also badly handicapped

* With 17 Hurdle runs I cant see where improvement comes

* FIRST AVENUE has the same problem with 18 runs

R e c e n t R a c e s

* There are 17 similar races run in December

* They were won by horses with the following days absence

* 15 21 21 49 21 8 6 14 224 6 28 2 15 9 8 28 22

* Only 1 winner was absent more than 7 weeks

* Horses with long absences have plenty to prove

* The following horses fail this

* PRINCETON PLAINS – RANJAAN

Age

* This the age of the 17 winners of similar races

* 9 5 5 6 5 5 6 4 5 7 4 5 4 4 5 6 7

* PETIT ROBIN is 9 and there was one winner aged 9

* The vast majority of winners were at least 2 years younger

* PETIT ROBIN won last time of a mark of 147

* Today a rating of 155 may be beyond him

* The race he won at Sandown isnt a good trial race

Recent Form

* Its very rare to win these races without a good last run

* Look at the 17 Clas 2 handicaps with 12 + runners

* This is the last time out finishing position of the 17 winners

* W 3 W W W W W 9 W W W W W W 3 W

* 14 of these won last time out which is remarakable

* Only failed to win on their last start

* Two were placed in Listed and Graded Handicaps

* The other placed in a Graded Chase

* I would ignore all those horses with poor last runs

* URBAIN DE SIVOLA didnt do enough last time

* BOTHY ran poorly last time and isnt safe

* DAN BREEN isnt running well enough to take this

* BAR DE LIGNE also looks wrong

* RIGIDITY was 2nd in this last year as a 4yo

* He never progressed after that run

* He has been chasing twice this season

* Its not a safe preparation and no winners were like him

* INTO WAIN is 5 and has 1 run this season

* There were 3 horses aged 5 winning with 1 run that year

* These had 4-9-10 previous hurdle runs

* INTO WAIN has 7 and thats fine

* I dont like that he came from Sandown last time

* Thats not been a good trial race

* All 16 that came from there lost and just one came 1-2-3

* Not a strong stat but it does worry me about him

* I also dont like that he’s 7lbs higher for losing

* IT´S A GIMME is 5 and has 1 run this season

* With 6 Hurdle runs I’d give him a fair chance

* He has the 2nd joint longest absence

* Comes from the same race as the 2008 winner 49 days ago

* That horse was older though

* IT´S A GIMME has enough to be shortlisted

* I’d rather he’d won last time though in a more recent race

* Look at horses from handicaps over a month ago

* There were 2 winners and both were 6 year olds

* Those aged 5 like IT´S A GIMME were 0-18

* THOMAS EDISON fails the same statistic

* He is 5 and has 1 run this season

* He also has an absence of over a month

* I cant match him to a winner because of that

* All 18 horses aged 5 doing that failed

* He’s no English form before

* He’s only won a Maiden hurdle before as well

* CAUSE OF CAUSES is a 4yo which is an issue

* We know these are 0-34 in this race

* I’d ignore that as he is very well raced this year

* Lots of big priced 4yo’s have placed in this

* My suspicion is he has been too busy this year

* He’s been running in Ireland all summer

* It wouldnt shock me if he won but I’m not convinced

* I fancy him a bit but I just fancy others more

* OLOFI now has 16 hurdle starts

* Thats a bit more than is ideal

* OLOFI is 6 and has 1 run this season

* He comes from a Handicap Hurdle

* There were 2 winners with this profile

* These had 5 and 9 career starts

* OLOFI with 16 is a bit too exposed form comfort

* He has also ran once right handed and flopped

* Its a big ask on a career high mark

* OLIFI might have squeezed on the shortlist

* I had him as my 4th choice

S h o r t l i s t

* CASH AND GO is 5 and has 1 run this season

* Overall a positive profile

* There were 3 winners with this profile from 17 winners

* They won with absences of 21 22 8 days

* CASH AND GO absent 34 days is off just a bit longer

* RATTAN has 15 hurdle runs

* Thats a big more than ideal

* I’m ignoring that for two reasons

* Its heavy ground and he is well raced this year

* On a career high mark he does have a lot to prove

* With so many 4yo’s we may need his fitness and experience

* DOUBLE ROSS has 11 hurdle runs

* Thats acceptable and I would respect him

* He isnt well treated but he will has more stamina than most

* If he makes all he could take some stopping

* This will ride like 2m 4f and he is very dangerous

 

Selection

DOUBLE ROSS 16/1 Win Bet Stan James

RATTAN 16/1 Win Bet Stan James Ladbrokes Bet365

 

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

 

Posted under horse racing tips