What A Complete Disaster

Copy of Paddy Power Cheltenham Meeting Day 1

Was your own day as a disasterous as this?

Must try harder tomorrow

Join me at http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/offers/paddy-power-cheltenham/ppcheltdeal.asp if you fancy it.

 

Mathematician 1733

No Account Bet Today

Message Content
 
Today is the start of the three day Cheltenham
November meeting. It is time consuming work
here so decisions needs to be made about the
other cards and how much we should do. This
is a difficult balancing act we have to get right
each day. I was going to leave Lingfield’s card
but I got dragged into the 3.05 and included it.

I don’t like anything at Newcastle. I’m pleased
with my Cheltenham work at least as much as
I can be given how competitive it is. We face
the same problem for the next three days. No
problem doing most Cheltenham races but if
I do then lots of other races wont be covered.

No Account Bet

M e s s a g e    H i g h l i g h t s
 
Happy with my Cheltenham work. The game
today is surely to try back winners here and
enjoy the meeting. I shall list the  selections
but first of all a quick mention at Lingfield.

Lingfield 3.05

GREAT GABRIAL 9/4

There was definitely a potential bet here in
THE GREAT GABRIAL. I do not like favourite
Leonard Thomas with just one career start.
Several others had flaws. I thought the safe
bet here was GREAT GABRIAL each way so
did consider him as a bet. However that’s a
decision that could have been taken away.
He has been backed from 4/1 to 9/4 which
kills my interest in an each way bet. There
is always the option of a win bet and that’s
still the best option in the race. I’d suggest
a bet but at the new price not a strong one.

C h e l t e n h a m   S e l e c t i o n s

Cheltenham 1.05 – STANDING OVATION 6/4 Half Stakes 
Cheltenham 1.05 – VICTRIX GALE 7/1 Half Stakes

Cheltenham 1.35 – ANAY TURGE 8/1 Each Way

Cheltenham 2.05 – THE ROMFORD PELE 7/1  Win Bet
Cheltenham 2.05 – TAQUIN DU SEUIL 5/2  Saver Bet

Cheltenham 2.40 – WHISPER  7/1 Each Way

Cheltenham 3.15 – BALTHAZAR KING 7/4 Win Bet

Cheltenham 3.50 – QUICK JACK 5/2 Win Bet

 
I don’t think there is anything award winning here
but I like them all. The question is now whether I
want to frame a bet from all the possible options.

The strongest two bets are below. I will suggest
combining them in 2 wins and each way double.

Todays Best Bet

Lingfield 3.05 – GREAT GABRIAL 2/1

Cheltenham 3.50 – QUICK JACK 5/2

* Win Bet on Both horses

* Each Way Double on Both

* For each #10 Staked on this bet
* #3 on Both and #2 Each Way Double

I really wanted the each way single on
GREAT GABRIAL. I could stake this bet
on the account but I feel we have lost
a lot of the value and why now create
an artificially new bet with more risks.
Happy to bet these myself and suggest
a bet but I’ll keep it off the account. No
doubt the value has gone for any bet.

T h u r s d a y s  S u m m a r y

That was simply a master class and I warned
you it might have been. I suggested that was
worth following. One serious message done
properly and we routed Southwell. Happy to
be self critical when its deserved but I nailed
it. Started with a saver Dynastic winning 10/1.

That was a good save in a very hard race. In
the next race we backed two and a saver so
to get the 1st 2nd and 3rd was lovely and as
Black Geronimo was one of the main bets it
returned a good profit. Sky Ranger finished
3rd but a non runner made it 7 runners. That
means a loser but I think its obvious I would
not have done that if I had known about the
withdrawal. We got the favourite beaten as
well and shortlisted the winner but we were
done by a non runner. BARBADOS BOB won
and was my best bet on that card. This race
was affected by the favourite not running so
many backing him earlier will have suffered
the Rule 4. He ended up short but at least he
won. I underestimated Silly Billy and that is
the only race we got wrong. BITAPHON won
easily yet another winner. Whilst it was only
a split stake bet I finished with SHARAARAH
winning at 6/1. The highlight for me was the
Racing Post Ratings analysis. I used it twice.

In the 12.50pm they gave us the 1st 2nd 3rd.
In the 3.50pm they showed without a doubt
that SHARAARAH despite a problem profile
and a bad last run was completely different
class and he won like it. They were part of
the reasons why it was so good a message.

 

P R O F I L E S   &   P R EV I E W S

C h e l t e n h a m   1.05

13/8 Standing Ovation, 6/1 Victrix Gale
7/1 Ruben Cotter, 8/1 Handy Andy, 8/1 Hunters Lodge
9/1 Fredo, 10/1 Imperial Circus, 10/1 Mr Moss
16/1 Major Malarkey, 33/1 Charingworth.

* This is a 3m Amateur Riders Handicap Chase
* 17 renewals of this race and no similar elsewhere
* STANDING OVATION will be hard to beat
* His stable love this race and have won it 5 times
* This is easier than the Wincanton race he won
* Less runners and lower Average Official Ratings
* He’s still well handicapped and progressive
* Against him is no Cheltenham experience
* He has a better record on right handed tracks
* I don’t buy that. He has only just come right
* He hasn’t ran left handed since he started to improve

* MR MOSS isn’t badly handicapped off 126
* He prepped over hurdles recently and none did that
* His weight and rating of 138 worries me
* High weights won when this was a Class 5 races
* That was years ago and the race has been upgraded
* Since it was upgraded to a Class 3-2 Handicap
* The highest rated winner was rated 134
* The Highest weight carried was 11st 4lbs
* MR MOSS fails both those angles
* RUBEN COTTER also fails that as well
* RUBEN COTTER is a seasonal debutant aged 7
* No horse aged 7 or 8 won this race first time out
* None won first time out with his weight either
* RUBEN COTTER also comes from a Novice Chase
* No horse won this from a Novice Chase
* It’s asking a lot to give the favourite 12lbs
* Especially when a seasonal debutant
* CHARINGWORTH – Not for me first time out
* Not sure he will stay 3 miles either
* MAJOR MALARKEY has never won off his rating
* Not sure I’d trust him with a long absence
* His only race here was when he fell at the 3rd
* HANDY ANDY may not appreciate the track
* He didn’t do enough for me last time
* FREDO – He finished just behind Handy Andy last time
* I’d have to question whether he did enough
* He needed his first run of the season
* He looks one of the more reasonable e/w options
* There are flaws in parts of his profile though
* Not keen he is exposed without Grade 1-2 backclass
* IMPERIAL CIRCUS is a positive and could win
* I just don’t think he will beat the favourite
* Not off the same weight with an inexperienced rider
* HUNTERS LODGE was 3rd in this race last year
* That was a good run after just 2 Chase starts
* He has just won the October Amateur race here
* He still looks quite well treated given his wins here
* VICTRIX GALE – This mare needs a career best
* It’s not unreasonable to think she could deliver it
* With an absence and from hurdles she looks unsafe
* You couldn’t rule her out and she is like many
* If the favourite doesn’t deliver she could do

Selection

This does revolve around STANDING OVATION our
winner last Saturday. He has the best chance here
and may easily bolt up. There are question marks
he has to answer like the track and several races
in a short period of time.  If he fails then I think it
could be any of three or four. I think you have to
make sure you can’t lose if he wins. You could be
wise to have a split stake bet. STANDING OVATION
to win to 1/2 stakes which buys him out of the race
and the other half on something else. Personally
I think he will win. He is a short price and there’s
a sensible case for the split stake bet at the odds.

Split Stake Bet

STANDING OVATION 6/4 Half Stakes to win

VICTRIX GALE 7/1 Half Stakes to win

C h e l t e n h a m   1.35

5/1 Eastlake, 7/1 Renard, 10/1 Anay Turge
10/1 Elenika, 10/1 Parsnip Pete, 12/1 Ballygarvey
12/1 Have You Seen Me, 12/1 Sew On Target
12/1 Tindaro, 14/1 Ballyadam Brook, 14/1 Shadows Lengthen
14/1 Theatrical Star, 16/1 De Faoithesdream
16/1 Gus Macrae, 16/1 Oh Crick, 20/1 Havingotascoobydo
25/1 Consigliere.

* This is a 0-145 Handicap Chase over 2 Miles
* The majority of winners were aged 6-7-8-9
* Only 1 of the past winners of this race was a 5yo
* None were seasonal debutants
* ELENIKA – You don’t want a 5yo with an absence
* Horses aged 10 have won this just once
* That horse had a good recent run
* I would avoid horses aged 10 with long breaks
* HAVE YOU SEEN ME fails this and looks unsafe
* All his wins are in lower grades than this
* Look at the horses that raced this season
* There were 8 of these winners in this race
* They almost all ran close last time out or fell
* Those that were beaten 5 + lengths last time struggled
* They had a 1-39 record that winner running 2m 3f last time
* If you have run this season you want a good last run
* CONSIGLIERE didn’t do enough last time
* He’s never won off this mark and this field isn’t right
* In fields of 11 or more he has a 0-21 record
* OH CRICK didn’t do enough for me last time
* It’s too early for him to be winning
* SHADOWS LENGTHEN – His last run wasn’t enough
* RENARD was beaten further than ideal last time
* He has only even won in small fields in lower grade
* HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO didn’t do enough last time
* THEATRICAL STAR didn’t do well enough last time
* You’d think he wants further than 2m anyway
* GUS MACRAE – I wanted a better last run
* I have my doubts about this track as well
* BALLYADAM BROOK doesn’t look good enough
* He hasn’t looked the same horse since an injury
* PARSNIP PETE has just won a Novice Hurdle
* His Chasing form doesn’t convince me
* Not sure the track will suit or the big field
* DE FAOITHESDREAM has a recent run
* None did that from a Novice Handicap Chase
* I don’t think you want a horse doing that
* Certainly not one that was beaten last time
* SEW ON TARGET ran over 2m 4f recently
* Two winners did that both were younger
* Both had fewer chase starts
* My biggest worry is the class at 2m
* His previous wins are in lower grade
* They are over further or on softer ground
* He could get caught out in this class on this ground
* TINDARO – Wouldnt rule him out on the ground
* He is a much more complicated horse that ideal
* Not sure he has the guts for this course
* I’d have been much happier in a smaller field

* EASTLAKE is a smart horse and won last time
* This is a Career high mark though
* I don’t like the mix of a high weight and no Graded form
* The winners of this with high weights all had more
* I don’t like that he has no Cheltenham form
* The ground may not be ideal for him either
* Entitled to serious respect but there are doubts

Shortlist

* BALLYGARVEY is a seasonal debutant
* He comes from a Novice Handicap Chase
* 4 horses did that in this race
* They finished 3rd 4th WON 11th
* The 2010 winner did the same
* He was a 7yo with 4 Chase starts
* BALLYGARVEY is 7 with 6 Chase starts
* That gets him shortlisted
* He may just want it softer though

* ANAY TURGE  has 18 Chase runs
* Little bit more than ideal but other positives
* He has more recent runs than these
* He is fitter than most horses in this race
* Last years winner was also 8 and did the same
* He simply has far fewer flaws than most
* He has won at the track before
* Any number could beat him on the day
* It’s asking a lot for 3 horses to do that though
* If 16 horses run you have 4 places as well
* This seems the least riSky option

Selection

ANAY TURGE 8/1

Each Way

C h e l t e n h a m  2.05

4/7 Oscar WhiSky, 9/4 Taquin Du Seuil
10/1 The Romford Pele, 20/1 The Cockney Mackem.

* This is a Novice Chase over an extended 2m 4f
* OSCAR WHISky has his Chasing debut
* He comes from a Grade 1 Hurdle last year
* So did the last 3 winners and others as well
* I looked at horses in this race like him
* Horses from Grade 1 Hurdles last season
* Several won but most were younger than him
* Horses aged 6 were best like the last 3 winners
* However Tarxien won this race in 2002
* He was an 8yo with 18 Hurdle starts
* OSCAR WHISky has a similar profile
* Therefore no statistical objection
* I don’t like his price much though
* Especially when there is a better profile
 
* TAQUIN DU SEUIL shouldn’t be underestimated
* Horses aged 6
* Horses winning a recent Novice Chase 
* Having 5-6-7-8 National Hunt starts
* Horses with this profile are W W W 2 in this race
* The 2006 2007 2008 winners of this had that profile
* The 2012 runner up had this profile as well
* The 1997 winner was also very similar
* He was 6 and won a recent Novice Chase
* He had 13 National Hunt runs just a few more
* The 2001 winner was 7 but had that profile
* Recent Novice Chase winners aged 6 are strong
* TAQUIN DU SEUIL is an inferior horse on Hurdle form
* This is Chasing and he has been out an won
* He has a safer profile and is like many winners

* THE ROMFORD PELE cant be ruled out either
* If he had won last time he’d have a similar profile
* I’m happy to forgive his 2nd last time
* Especially as that was a New Course record
* That run knocked over 3 seconds off the record
* I don’t think you can rule this horse out
* Just a shame there are only 4 runners

Selection

With TAQUIN DU SEUIL and THE ROMFORD PELE
offering serious opposition I can’t bet the favourite
much as he’s the class horse and could easily win.
 
THE ROMFORD PELE 7/1  Win Bet

TAQUIN DU SEUIL 5/2  Saver Bet

C h e l t e n h a m  2.40

4/1 Top Gamble, 6/1 Upswing, 8/1 Whisper
9/1 Atlantic Roller, 10/1 God4s Own, 12/1 Handazan
12/1 Kaylif Aramis, 12/1 Killala Quay, 12/1 Warden Hill
14/1 Thomas Crapper, One Conemara, 16/1 Uncle Jimmy
20/1 Free To Dream, 20/1 Hold Court, 20/1 Scarlet Fire
25/1 Angles Hill, 25/1 Milborough, 33/1 Decimus
33/1 Watered Silk, 40/1 Kellys Brow.

* This is a 2m 5f Handicap Hurdle for 0-137 rated horses.
* TOP GAMBLE has 1 previous hurdle race
* That worries me
* There were 7 winners from novice hurdles last year
* The best record comes from 6 year olds
* There were 2 winners aged 5 doing it like him
* Grand Crus had 3 hurdle runs and 2 bumpers
* Punchestowns had 3 hurdle runs and 4 bumpers
* TOP GAMBLE has just 1 hurdle run and 2 bumpers
* He also comes from a 2m race
* Grand Crus and Punchestowns didn’t do that
* Neither did they win last time like TOP GAMBLE
* TOP GAMBLE looks too short with 1 hurdle run
* There was a winner with 1 hurdle start winning (2004)
* That horse was a 6 year old though
* ATLANTIC ROLLER is 6 from a Novice Hurdle
* He has just 1 hurdle start like the 2004 winner
* ATLANTIC ROLLER has more weight though
* He has much longer off the track as well
* I’m not looking for a once raced horse
* His trainer says he wants 3m over hurdles anyway
* ONE CONEMARA – is 5 first time out from Novice Hurdles
* Not for me going back in trip and likely chasing soon
* HANDAZAN is a 4 year old
* I looked at 4 year olds in this race since 1993
* There was a 0-54 record which says it all
* HANDAZAN has to be opposed
* Look at horses that ran in Novice Hurdles
* We know many did that as seasonal debutants
* I looked at those that did it with recent runs
* I found a 0-20 record with these types
* That tells me recent Novice Hurdlers are unsafe
* KILLALA QUAY fails this and is rejected
* WARDEN HILL also fails this and is out
* ANGLES HILL also fails this and is out
* Past winners had the following hurdle starts
* 9 3 3 5 3 5 5 8 1 10 6 5 10 5 5
* I wouldn’t want a horse with more than 10 runs
* FREE TO DREAM has 14 runs and looks badly treated
* HOLD COURT – I wanted a better last run

* GOD4S OWN is 5 and ran this season
* Horses aged 5 doing this were 3-48
* These 3 winners were all beaten last time out
* Look at 5 year olds that won recent races
* All 16 of these lost
* GOD4S OWN may not be up to winning again

* UPSWING has the same problem
* He’s 5 and won recently and all 16 doing that lost
* It would be no surprise if he went and won
* I just can’t match him to a winner

* KAYLIF ARAMIS is 6
* He comes from a recent handicap hurdle
* 2 winners did that but with much less weight
* I looked at horses that ran recently
* Those that came from Handicap Hurdles were 3-96
* Thats not a great record
* Those with 10st 13lbs or more doing this were 0-43
* KAYLIF ARAMIS fails this and isn’t quite right
* THOMAS CRAPPER fails the same statistic
* UNCLE JIMMY fails the same statistic
* He isn’t the right profile and has no track form

Selection

* WHISPER is 5 and comes from a Novice Hurdle
* We know both Grand Crus and Punchestowns did that
* Punchestown won with 11st 12lbs as he did
* WHISPER can’t be a negative because of that
* If you follow the above angles to the letter
* Then he is just about the only horse without a fault

WHISPER  7/1

Each Way

L i n g f i e l d   3.05

11/8 Leonard Thomas, 9/2 The Great Gabrial
7/1 Piceno, 9/1 Chiswick Bey, 9/1 Rugosa
12/1 Kakapuka, 14/1 Club House, 14/1 Ewell Place
20/1 Striking Echo, 20/1 Timothy T.

* This is a Mile Handicap for 0-74 rated horses
* LEONARD THOMAS has 1 previous race
* Thats very inexperienced for a handicap
* There are 250 similar races at this time of year
* None of them went to a once raced horse
* Not that many tried but none of them did it
* I would rather look for something each way
* LEONARD THOMAS didn’t beat much last time
* His Dam has produced 4 horses
* None were rated any better than this sort of grade
* I think we should try and take him on

I don’t like RUGOSA so lightly raced this season and
a horse that’s clearly had a problem. Neither of the
3 year olds STRIKING ECHO or CLUB HOUSE appeal
with poor last runs and absences. TIMOTHY T does
not look fit. KAKAPUKA is out from a 6f race and an
absence. A big problem here is understanding why
some of these were well beaten recently and trying
to decide if there were excuses or whether they are
simply out of form. EWELL PLACE looks in the wrong
place at the moment and is struggling. PICENO must
be consider but his last run was poor and his profile
suffers because of it. CHISWICK BEY is another with
a poor recent history. It may look obvious but surely
the right bet here is THE GREAT GABRIAL each way.
He hasn’t done badly winning 4 of 18 starts and his
numbers are generally progressive and the best of
them have been on the All Weather. Having looked
at some of these its easier to understand why there
is confidence in LEONARD THOMAS after just 1 run.
This comes down to a choice of taking a short price
about him or betting THE GREAT GABRIAL and  I’d
much rather do that.

Selection

THE GREAT GABRIAL

C h e l t e n h a m  3.15

2/1 Balthazar King, 5/1 Chicago Grey, 6/1 Uncle Junior
8/1 Diamond Harry, 10/1 Quiscover Fontaine
10/1 Sire Collonges, 10/1 Zest For Life
16/1 Gullible Gordon, 16/1 Viking Blond
20/1 Theroadtocroker, 25/1 Any Currency.

* This is a Cross Country Chase
* There are 14 past renewals of this race
* Horses aged under 9 have a 1-77 record
* None of the past winners were 7 year olds
* SIRE COLLONGES has to go aged 7
* VIKING BLOND has to aged 8
* ANY CURRENCY didn’t do enough last time
* THEROADTOCROKER is rated far too low
* GULLIBLE GORDON – I don’t like his absence
* His profile has flaws and he may not get home
* DIAMOND HARRY may not get home
* His sire is 0-32 with runners over 3m 4f
* Appreciate its not a standard race
* Sire stats shouldn’t really apply here
* DIAMOND HARRY is hardly the safest to rely on
* He may not want the ground as it is
* UNCLE JUNIOR won this in 2012 and 2011
* He had several recent races before winning then
* This year he is a 12yo debutant
* No statistical problem with 12yo debutants in this race
* Interesting though his wins came after these absences
* 34 44 33 26 36 38 14 13 27 35 days
* UNCLE JUNIOR has never won after an absence
* Thats excluding his Bumper win back in 2007
* That puts me off his chance of a hat trick in the race
* QUISCOVER FONTAINE – Hard to read
* With 3 Falls in his last 7 Chase runs he isn’t for me

Shortlist

* CHICAGO GREY is a 10yo seasonal debutant
* This is his first Cross Country race
* His trainer hints he will come on for the run
* Thats two problems which are hard to forgive

* ZEST FOR LIFE – Hard to read. Don’t know enough
* He has no Cheltenham form not an advantage

* BALTHAZAR KING comes from a handicap chase
* Winners did that much as none won last time like him
* He has the ground in his favour though
* He was 2nd in this race as an 8 year old
* Wrong age last year he is a more suitable 9yo now

Selection

BALTHAZAR KING 7/4

Win Bet

C h e l t e n h a m  3.50

3/1 Quick Jack, 6/1 Edmaaj, 8/1 Rosie Probert
9/1 Vibrato Valtat, 10/1 Three Kingdoms, 12/1 Maxi Chop
12/1 Roberto Pegasus, 14/1 Little Pop, Noche De Reyes
16/1 Dresden, 16/1 Just When, 20/1 Deep Trouble
20/1 Falcarragh, 20/1 Lone Ranger, 20/1 Quite By Chance
25/1 Daliance, 33/1 Expanding Universe
33/1 Mister Bricolage, 40/1 To The Sky, 40/1 Vedani.

* This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle over 2m
* Big field. Untested horses. Wont be easy
* There are a couple of statistical pointers here

* Cheltenham have 110 handicap Hurdles
* Thats 110 handicaps in November and December
* Thats any distance and any kind of handicap
* Look at horses from Maiden Hurdles
* They have a 4-60 record in these races
* None of these were 4 year olds
* VIBRATO VALTAT has this against him
* Horses from Maiden Hurdles with 2 + hurdle runs
* They had a disappointing 1-50 record
* That winner was a 6 year old
* EDMAAJ comes from a Maiden Hurdle
* Its obviously difficult to win a handicap here doing it

* There are 16 renewals of this race
* I looked at horses from Maiden Hurdles
* There was a 0-34 record in this race
* EDMAAJ therefore doesn’t offer me enough
* VIBRATO VALTAT is also opposed
* ROSIE PROBERT is a 4yo filly from a handicap
* Horses aged 4 from handicap hurdles are 0-24
* There were 5 winners aged 4 in the past renewals
* None of these were fillies like ROSIE PROBERT
* With Topweight she has a bit to prove
* NOCHE DE REYES  doesn’t come out well enough
* ROBERTO PEGASUS – I don’t want a 7yo debutant

Possibles

* THREE KINGDOMS – Plenty to prove but no negative
* LITTLE POP – Shortlisted and entitled to go well
* MAXI CHOP – 0 from 6 so far but wouldn’t rule him out
* Tough ask with topweight but will like the ground

* QUICK JACK is clearly a big runner
* Improved on the flat he looks very well treated
* Rated 86 on the flat his 113 hurdle rating is generous
* One of the fittest horses in the race
* I think he will win this

Selection

QUICK JACK 9/4

Win Bet

Best Wishes
Guy Ward   

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

—————————————————————————
Check For Best Prices at http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/odds/horses
—————————————————————————

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on November 15, 2013

Leave a Comment

You must be logged in to post a comment.

More Blog Post