KEMPTON 12.30

TAKE A BREAK/EUROPEAN BREEDERS’ FUND
“NATIONAL HUNT” NOVICES’ HURDLE (QUALIFIER)
(CLASS 4) (4-6yo) 2m

4/1 Lord Ragnar, 9/2 Somersby, 13/2 Gershwin, 7/1 In Vino,
8/1 Seefin Mountain, 12/1 Clova Island, Firedog, 14/1 Master Charm, 16/1 Ruby Isabel, 20/1 High Carol, Rapid Return, 25/1 Mr Presley, 33/1 Rothres, Smart N Sharp, Ushiro Emery, 50/1 Junior Jimble, 100/1 Cool Contender.

SELECTION – SOMERSBY 3/1

* This is a 2m Novice Hurdle for horses aged 4-5-6
* There has been 112 of these races run in November-December
* There has been 497 similar races for all aged horses
* I want to oppose LORD RAGMAR and FIREDOG in this race
* Both come from a Bumper – and it was this season
* 13 of the 497 winners came from a recent bumper
* However LORD RAGMAR was beaten 20 lengths in that bumper
* FIREDOG was beaten 40 lengths in that bumper
* I looked at horses that had ran recently in bumpers
* Horses that did it beaten 8 lengths or more were 0-220
* Those that were not 1-2-3-4-5 last time out were 0-170
* Horses well beaten in bumpers are awful if having run recently
* FIREDOG-LORD RAGMAR fails the same statistic
* They both look very opposable
* IN VINO was entitled to hate his seasonal debut
* That was on heavy ground and he had no hurdling form
* The issue with him is did he run well enough last time to consider
* He had excuses – but was still beaten 27 lengths
* Not many of the 497 winners had similar profiles
* In 497 races I looked at 4 year olds that had 1 run that year
* Looked at those beaten 16 + lengths in these races as IN VINO was
* The record was 10-531 a very poor 1.88% strike rate
* When these 4 year olds had more than 1 run it became 2-184
* Those like IN VINO with 2-3 career starts were 0-121
* That suggests to me IN VINO has too much to do
* MASTER CHARM fails the same angles and is also opposed
* I dont think GERSHWIN did enough last time out
* I would shortlist SEEFIN MOUNTAIN
* He comes from a Graded Bumper after 2 runs
* There were 4 horses with his profile and they were W 4th 4th Lost
* It has been done and Graded Bumper form is respected
* I would have to strongly prefer SOMERSBY

SELECTION – SOMERSBY 3/1

* SOMERSBY comes from a maiden hurdle this year
* Several 4 year olds did that in similar races
* Those like SOMERSBY that were 1-2-3-4 last time out were strong
* His run this year must give him a very strong chance
* He is reported as one of Henrietta Knights best prospects
* When he ran the stable were out of form and struggling
* They have now had their 1st winner this year
* He was bound to have badly needed that opening run 3 weeks ago

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