Mathematician 1839
2 Account Bets
Cheltenham 2.40
TOUR DES CHAMPS 14/1
Each Way
Three Savers
Standing Ovation 20/1
Time For Rupert 14/1
Wrong Turn 14/1
Staking guidance for every #10 Staked
#4 Each Way TOUR DES CHAMPS 14/1
#0.75 Win Time For Rupert 14/1
#0.75 Win Wrong Turn 14/1
#0.50 Win Standing Ovation 20/1
Second Bet
Cheltenham 4.00
FOXROCK 4/1 +
Each Way
Two Bets Today
Cheltenham 2.40
Messy staking with an each way bet and 3 savers
but It takes only buttons to save on these 3 horses
and they could be valuable savers when we have
9 Generic Negatives and several no hopers as well.
Cheltenham 4.40
Straight forward staking with Foxrock each way and
unless he falls or makes a howler he should go close.
Cheltenham Selections
Cheltenham 1.30 – IRVING 7/2 Win Bet
Cheltenham 1.30 – VAUTOUR 4/1 Saver Bet
Cheltenham 2.05 – DODGING BULLETS 11/2 Each Way
Cheltenham 2.40 – TOUR DES CHAMPS 14/1 Each Way
Cheltenham 2.40 – Standing Ovation 20/1 Saver
Cheltenham 2.40 – Time For Rupert 14/1 Saver
Cheltenham 2.40 – Wrong Turn 14/1 Saver
(Staking guidance given below)
Cheltenham 3.15 – JEZKI 9/1 Each Way
Cheltenham 4.00 – QUEVEGA 10/11 Half Stakes to win
Cheltenham 4.00 – GLENS MELODY 5/2 Half Stakes to Place
Cheltenham 4.00 – FOXROCK 9/2 Each Way
Cheltenham 5.15 – ATTAGLANCE 14/1 Each Way
Cheltenham 5.15 – ERICHT 10/1 Saver
T o d a y ‘s B e t s
At the festival most people will be having bets
in every race so the most important thing is to
get as many winners as possible regardless of
how they are staked. If these happen to be on
account bets then all the better but realistically
the choice of bets is so vast that we could easily
have losing account bets and winners elsewhere.
I wouldn’t put anyone off following the message
in every race as the work has been done but it
is likely some account bets will be in the harder
races and are not as likely to win as other bets.
Interested to see how a new fresh approach to
the Supreme Novice Hurdle gets on but IRVING
does not make the grade as an account bet.
DODGING BULLETS could have been a bet with
a neat field but I will let that one go as well. It’s
one of the more likely winners and worth a bet.
I usually have an account bet in the 2.40pm and
it is a race I love. I fancy TOUR DES CHAMPS but
have staked 3 savers (explained below). Its quite
a complicated stake. Huge emotional interest in
whether the 9 Generic Negatives will get beaten.
I think I have staked this really well. It will be a
fascinating race but the staking is messy this year.
Don’t have a strong view in the Champion hurdle
it looks wide open. I have backed JEZKI recently
and that will stand for me as an interest only bet.
No interest in Quevega’s race. I’ve split staked it
as it make sense but I don’t have any strong view.
The 4m Novice Chase is one of my best races all
week. This year I have gone with 6yo FOXROCK
which is unusual. I am doing this as I feel there’s
a fair chance the favourite won’t stay. My honest
view is that he will win if he jumps and if I had a
big danger it would be the fences not opposition.
I fancy ATTAGLANCE strongly but know that there
is a higher than ideal chance any bets could get
lost in this race. Looks the hardest race today but
this is not a token choice to fill a message I think
he has a very good chance at a generous price.
Generic Statistics
The following horses Fail my Generic Stats.
I’m opposing them all and hope they all fail.
Cheltenham 2.40 – Pacha Du Polder
Cheltenham 2.40 – Hadrian’s Approach
Cheltenham 2.40 – Holywell
Cheltenham 2.40 – Green Flag
Cheltenham 2.40 – Ma Filleule
Cheltenham 2.40 – Vino Griego
Cheltenham 2.40 – Muldoon’s Picnic
Cheltenham 2.40 – The Package
Cheltenham 2.40 – Alfie Sherrin
P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S
C h e l t e n h a m 1.30
Sky Bet Supreme Novices4 Hurdle
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m110y
5/2 Irving, 3/1 Vautour, 13/2 Wicklow Brave, 9/1 Vaniteux
12/1 Gilgamboa, 12/1 Josses Hill, 12/1 Valseur Lido
14/1 The Liquidator, 16/1 Splash Of Ginge, 16/1 Western Boy
20/1 Wilde Blue Yonder, 25/1 Garde La Victoire, 25/1 Sgt Reckless
33/1 Three Kingdoms, 33/1 Un Ace, 100/1 Fantasy King
100/1 Germany Calling, 100/1 Sky Khan.
* The Supreme Novice is a Grade 1 hurdle over 2m
* IRVING has divided opinion after 4 wins
* Many argue he lacks stamina and may not like Cheltenham
* Go back to 1998 and look at horses placing 1-2-3 in this
* Only Binocular in 2008 had a Flat race background
* Almost all placed horses had National Hunt beginnings
* IRVING does not have that. This is his Flaw.
* Then again on quicker ground that could change
* IRVING does have advantages as well as I soon explain
* Look at the number of hurdle runs past winners had
* 4 4 4 4 5 2 2 4 4 7 3 4 2 3 2 2 3
* The last 5 winners had at least 4 hurdle runs
* I would rather have a horse with 4 or more hurdle runs
* There are winners that won with just 2 hurdle runs
* Interesting that these were all aged 6 or 7
* Horses aged 5 that had under 3 hurdle runs have struggled
* French Ballerina did it in 1998 but she was different
* She was a mare and had a sex allowance
* She was also a Grade 1 horse on the Flat
* Flown in 1992 was a lightly raced 5yo winner so it can be done
* Recent evidence suggest these horses struggle
* I looked at 5 year old Males with under 3 hurdle runs
* Since 1998 these horses have a 0-45 record
* I would view a 5 year old with 1-2 hurdle runs sceptically
* The last 4 winners aged 5 had 4 4 4 4 Hurdle runs
* The only one that did not before that was a Mare
* I do not want a 5 year old with under 3 hurdle runs
* The following horses have this problem
* WICKLOW BRAVE – VALSEUR LIDO – WESTERN BOY
* WILD BLUE YONDER fell on his last 2 starts
* I looked at Grade 1 Hurdle races at the Festival
* Looked for horses that fell last time out
* Since 1996 all 56 that tried failed
* Hard to bet a horse coming here after 2 hurdle falls
* We know horses from handicaps have a poor record
* SPLASH OF GINGE fails this winning the Betfair hurdle
* He only had 10st 2lbs last time. Unlikely to be good enough.
* JOSSES HILL is classy but has just 2 hurdle runs
* As a 6 year old with 2 hurdle runs I can respect him
* The 2007 winner was a 6yo with 2 hurdle runs
* This is a future 2m 4f + chasing sort though
* Not sure he will be slick enough over hurdles at 2m
* I’d have been much happier with more hurdling experience
* VANITEUX is 5 and has 3 hurdle runs
* He is slowly maturing and should run a career best
* Hard to know if that is going to be enough
* As a 5yo with 3 runs he takes on 6 year olds with 4 runs
* VANITEUX also comes from a 2m 4f race
* No recent winner managed that and he is not safe statistically
* VAUTOUR is a 5 year old with 3 hurdle runs
* Count his French form and you can argue he has 5 runs
* VAUTOUR has an acceptable profile and is a big runner
* I want to mention 6 year olds with 4 hurdle runs
* Much better than 5 year olds with 2 hurdle runs
* Look at 6yo’s with 4 hurdle runs
* 2013 Champagne Fever beat My Tent or Yours
* Both the 1st and 2nd last year were 6yo’s with 4 hurdle
* IRVING has this profile
* GILGAMBOA has this profile
* IRVING – I share the reservations about the track
* Foolish to say he can’t win given other advantages
* GILGAMBOA comes from a handicap
* Thats not ideal and has not happened recently
* Last years second did it though. The stat will fail soon
* GILGAMBOA as a 6yo with 4 hurdle starts is otherwise ideal
* Very impressive last time in that handicap
* Statistically I should ignore GILGAMBOA
* As a 6yo with 4 hurdle starts I’d keep him on side
Number of Racecourse Appearances
I thought the following was relevant. I want a horse
that has enough experience and conditioning for a
race like this. I looked at the last 21 winners of this.
I counted How many previous races they had before,
This is any kind of race. Flat runs, Bumpers, Hurdles
just how many times they had ran in any kind of race.
* 8 9 8 5 8 9 8 6 21 9 7 7 26 17 13 29 18 10 8 7 15
* 20 of the last 21 winners had ran at least 6 times before
* 21 of the last 21 winners had ran at least 5 times before
* Horses with 1-2-3-4 Racecourse Appearances look wrong
* The following horses are therefore opposed
* These have not had the same level of racecourse experience
* GILGAMBOA – 4 Racecourse Appearances
* JOSSES HILL – 4 Racecourse Appearances
* VALSEUR LIDO – 4 Racecourse Appearances
* VANITEUX – 3 Racecourse Appearances
* THE LIQUIDATOR is ok as a 6yo with 3 runs
* Especially as he has 8 racecourse appearances as well
* It is just a dismal last run that badly hurts him
* Very unusual a winner will have ran so badly last time
* Horses unplaced last time out were 0-130 in recent years
* He is not a very well built horse
* Soft ground at Kempton may not have suited
* Even so do we want a lightly framed horse in this race ?
Hard to judge VAUTOUR as he has only had 3 runs but
include his French form and you can argue he has had
5 runs so I see him very much as a borderline case here.
IRVING has the right number of starts and much as there
is a question mark about the track I would far rather rely
on him and chance that than go for a horse that has less
experience and half the number of hurdle starts.
Little bit frustrated as I feel I have developed some good
angles here yet these point to the shortest priced horses
in the race. I think IRVING or VATOUR will win this. I can
see a case for a win bet and a saver. I prefer IRVING just
on profile but I accept the track’s an issue. We don’t know.
Selection
IRVING 7/2 Win Bet
VAUTOUR 4/1 Saver Bet
Alternative Staking
* You could consider having the saver as a place bet
* Irving to win and Vautour to place (Evens) is another option
* Vautour each way looks an acceptable bet as well
* Don’t forget the Paddy Power offer in this race
* They’re refunding all losing bets if your 2nd 3rd 4th
* If you can bet with them that surely must be taken
IRVING 7/2 Win Bet
VAUTOUR 4/1 Saver Bet
C h e l t e n h a m 2.05
Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m
5/2 Champagne Fever, 4/1 Rock On Ruby
5/1 Dodging Bullets, 5/1 Trifolium, 8/1 Grandouet, 8/1 Valdez
16/1 Ted Veale, 33/1 Brick Red, 33/1 Western Warhorse.
* The Arkle is a Grade 1 Chase over 2 Miles
* This year we look to have 6 main runners
* ROCK ON RUBY has positives and negatives
* The biggest positive is his 167 rating
* His main rivals are rated 158 157 156 153 153
* ROCK ON RUBY is rated 9lbs higher than anything
* That is based on his hurdles form though
* ROCK ON RUBY has only had 2 Chase starts
* He is also a 9yo and the last 9yo winner was in 1988
* The last 24 winners were younger than Rock On Ruby
* Go back to 1988 and you find just 3 winners aged 8 +
* These had 4-5-3 Chase runs – all more than he does
* ROCK ON RUBY – I don’t want a 9yo with just 2 chase runs
* VALDEZ is the lowest rated hurdler of the main runners
* 15 of the last 16 winners were rated between 154 and 169
* VALDEZ only has a rating of 153
* If he wins it will be with an unusually low rating
* He is unbeaten though and ratings are not everything
* Not for me though. He isn’t the biggest of horses
* GRANDOUET has 3 Chase runs but is still yet to win one
* This includes defeats at 4/11 and 1/2
* He unseated rider in one and also fell twice over hurdles
* We know only 1 of the last 16 winners had fallen before
* That would worry me in a race that can punish mistakes
* He has so much talent but is only a small horse
* That must contribute to his chequered record
* Could easily win but I don’t want an undersized horse
* Not one that has never yet won a chase and has hurdle falls
* CHAMPAGNE FEVER deserves maximum respect
* If only for the fact he is trained by Willie Mullins
* Crossed my mind he is lightly raced this year
* Only 2 Chase runs and they were his only runs this year
* Several of these have had more runs than that
* CHAMPAGNE FEVER also has a longer absence than most
* I wouldn’t fail him on his absence
* I have read that he is not an easy horse to get fit though
* Hard to know whether to trust that and if so how far to
* His disappointing 3rd last time knocks points off his score
* After all 24 of the last 26 winners were 1st or 2nd last time
* It means he doesn’t have a very strong profile
* Not sure he is a big enough price to interest me
* TRIFOLIUM was impressive in the Irish Arkle
* That earnt him only the 4th best Racing Post Rating
* Probably because his opponents ran below par
* That’s something to bear in mind
* So to is a problem he has had with his wind
* Take away his Irish Arkle win and he looks weaker
* It was heavy ground last time and his main opponents flopped
* His previous form is not good enough
* He is improving and should be competitive
* If you bet him it is on the back of just 1 good run
* Against horses who disappointed as well
* TED VEALE has 3 chase runs and 3 heavy defeats
* I can’t make a good enough case for a shock result
* DODGING BULLETS comes here W W W 2 over fences
* Not keen that he started life as a Miler on the Flat
* The last winner to have run on the flat was 2005
* That winner (Contaband) won in a poor year
* There was a false pace that year as well
* There have been others that started life on the flat though
* Not keen on his Spring festival records either
* His 2 Cheltenham Festival runs were 4th and 9th
* His 2 Aintree Festival runs were 6th and 7th
* His form when we get to Spring is a concern
* That said he has got excuses for some of those runs
* He didn’t stay at Aintree 2013 and broke a blood vessel
* Cheltenham 2013 he was a big negative with a long absence
* I’m very reluctant to pigeon hole him on limited evidence
* Yes there are concerns but also positives as well
* He is a big strong horse with 3 wins at Cheltenham before
* On Racing Post Ratings he has the 1st and 3rd best numbers
Racing Post Ratings
Chase Ratings over 140
161 Dodging Bullets
159 Valdez
158 Dodging Bullets
158 Trifolium
157 Grandouet
154 Valdez
152 Rock On Ruby
149 Trifolium
147 Trifolium
146 Dodging Bullets
144 Grandouet
142 Champagne Fever
142 Champagne Fever
141 Trifolium
These ratings show that Champagne Fever is some way
behind and his position as favourite is partly down to his
brilliant trainer and festival record. That’s not to say that
he can’t win. The above suggest DODGING BULLETS may
be the bet each way. His poor record in the Spring plays
on my mind a bit as does the fact he is younger than the
other main players. Statistically that shouldn’t matter at
all but what puts me off a bit is that he’s by Dubawi a flat
horse who hasn’t bred a winner at Cheltenham’s festival.
He does look a sensible each way bet given purely on his
chase runs he has the 1st and 3rd best racing post ratings.
Selection
DODGING BULLETS 11/2
Each Way
C h e l t e n h a m 2.40
Baylis & Harding Affordable Luxury
Handicap Chase Grade 3 (5yo+) 3m110y
15/2 Alfie Sherrin, 8/1 Hadrian4s Approach, 8/1 Holywell
12/1 Cantlow, 12/1 Green Flag, 14/1 Wrong Turn, 16/1 Restless Harry
16/1 The Package, 16/1 Time For Rupert, 16/1 Tour Des Champs
16/1 Vintage Star, 20/1 Golden Chieftain, 20/1 Ma Filleule
20/1 Shakalakaboomboom, 20/1 Standing Ovation, 25/1 Ackertac
25/1 Fruity O4rooney, 25/1 King Massini, 25/1 Vino Griego
33/1 Muldoon4s Picnic, 33/1 Pacha Du Polder, 33/1 Relax
33/1 Renard, 40/1 Solix.
* This is a 3m Handicap Chase
* I will start with GENERIC Statistic 1
* 7 year olds in every Cheltenham Festival Handicap Chase
* We know those carrying 11st 1lbs or more were 0-73
* PACHA DU POLDER fails this with 11st 9lbs
* HADRIANS APPROACH fails this with 11st 7lbs
* HOLYWELL fails this with 11st 6lbs
* GREEN FLAG fails this with 11st 4lbs
* GENERIC Statistic 2 is about horses aged 5-6-7
* These ages in all handicap chases struggle with absences
* Those absent 50 or more days are just 1-77
* HADRIANS APPROACH fails this aged 7 absent 83 days
* MA FILLEULE fails it as a 6yo absent 74 days
* GENERIC Statistic 3 is about horses From Grade 1-2 races
* None of these carried 11st 3lbs or more
* VINO GRIEGO falls down on this statistic
* GREEN FLAG also fails this
* GENERIC Statistic 4 is about Novice Handicap Chasers
* None won ordinary handicap chases from Novice Handicaps
* All 21 have lost and none have placed either
* MULDOONS PICNIC fails this statistic
* GENERIC Statistic 5 is about 6 and 7 year olds
* It involves the number of prep runs each horse has
* HADRIANS APPROACH could be questioned on this statistic
* He has 3 runs this year but he fell early in one of those
* I think this statistic just hints he has something to prove
* GENERIC Statistic 6 is about horses absent 80 + days
* It shows what backclass these horses need if well raced
* THE PACKAGE also fails this angle
* ALFIE SHERRIN also fails this statistic
* GENERIC Statistic 7 is about horses aged 11 or more
* It shows how these have never won absent a month
* The following horses fails this statistic
* THE PACKAGE – ALFIE SHERRIN
I have 9 of the 24 runners failing one or more of my
Generic Statistic. I just want to double check to see
if I am making any mistakes in ignoring these nine.
* MA FILLEULE is as 6 year old
* Horses aged 6 have struggled in this race
* They won it in 1956 1972 and 1994 since the first race in 1946
* The 1994 winner was 6 but that was a small field of 11 runners
* I’d be very wary about betting a 6 year old
* ALFIE SHERRIN is 11 and clearly underraced this season
* THE PACKAGE has to go as an 11yo debutant
* PACHA DU POLDER is clearly underraced with a big weight
* HADRIAN4S APPROACH – If he wins then he wins
* He does however fail 2 Generic Stats and possibly 3
* MULDOON4S PICNIC – No novice handicapper has won
* I couldn’t bet him with an absence
* VINO GRIEGO has a big weight and comes here PU PU
* GREEN FLAG fails 2 Generic Statistics but only just
* He was unlucky unseating rider last time
* He’s been a credit to connections but isn’t safe enough
* He has more weight than any 7yo winners
* He has never raced at Cheltenham before either
* GREEN FLAG – Might be a mistake but opposing him
* HOLYWELL won’t find 11st 6lbs easy as a 7 year old
* We know no 7yo won any handicap chase with 11st 1lbs +
* This horse has made mistakes and isn’t a safe jumper
* He is a small horse which could be part of the problem
* I’d avoid unsafe jumpers and small horses here
* As he also fails a Generic Statistic he has to go
* CANTLOW passes all my Generic statistics
* He does have statistical problems elsewhere
* Much of this is to do with his weight of 11st 12lbs
* Horses that had 11st 6lbs or more had a 1-43 record
* 18 of the last 20 winners had no more than 11st 2lbs
* The only 9yo winners were lightweights
* All winners since the early 1980’s were rated 149 or less
* CANTLOW has to defy a mark of 151 here
* He has a big weight and a very tough absence
* CANTLOW looks unsafe to me
* RESTLESS HARRY is a high class horse in good form
* Bothers me he is 0-12 when racing in fields of 12 or more
* Not overkeen he is an exposed horse but these do win
* He has a bit too much weight for comfort
* He is like the past high weighted winners though
* They were exposed with Grade 1 form and recent runs
* I like his chance more than I should though
* He has tried 3m at Cheltenham 9 times before
* He’s never looked like winning and may not stay this far here
* GOLDEN CHIEFTAIN won this race last year
* He had 7 prep runs last year and a low weight
* This year 1 prep run and a big weight so he is out
* SOLIX looks outclassed
* SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM hasn’t had enough runs this season
* RENARD – Track and Distance worry me
* RELAX hasn’t had the best preparation and looks unsafe here
* ACKERTAC wouldn’t me my first choice
* Not keen on 17 Chase runs with 9 weeks absence
* His trainer has a 0-106 record with his Cheltenham runners
* Every past winner has ran in at least Listed Class before
* KING MASSINI has never been in a Class 2 race before
* He is inexperienced and without backclass is rejected
* FRUITY O4ROONEY is 11 which is older than ideal
* Almost all his winning form comes on sharp tracks
* Not keen he comes from only a Veterans Chase
* FRUITY O4ROONEY was 5th and 2nd in the last 2 renewals
* More exposed now and no more than an outside chance
Possibles
* VINTAGE STAR has bits I quite like
* I like 9 Chase runs for starts
* Past winners had 14-6-5-9-3-6-17-9-7-5-9-11-10-10 Chase runs
* We don’t know if he will appreciate this track
* Jumped badly on his only run here but it was a Grade 1 race
* Not proven himself in a big field either
* TIME FOR RUPERT is now a 10 year old
* He has had some injury problems in the last 2 seasons
* He has 3 runs this year and the last was a reasonable run
* He has some serious Cheltenham Festival form
* Not keen he comes from a Veterans Chase
* Not sure if this ground may be too quick
* I would respect and shortlist him
* WRONG TURN is a lightly raced Irish raider
* Hard to read and we have to guess his ability
* No track form and has fallen twice in his last 4 runs
* Stamina Unproven but you wouldn’t rule him out
* STANDING OVATION has an excellent period last Autumn
* He was rested over the winter until 17 days ago
* He was bound to have needed the run
* It was on ground softer than ideal for him
* STANDING OVATION is a very well treated horse
* What I don’t like is his record left handed
* He has far better form going right handed at the moment
* Much of that was before he started to improve
* It may not be as important as it looks
* Not sure I want a 7yo with just 1 run in over 3 months either
* That said he could easily win from his current mark
* TOUR DES CHAMPS was 8th in this race last year
* Beaten 25 lengths he has to improve a lot
* That said he was a 6yo last year and a negative
* It was a huge ask last year for a younger 6 year old
* He was racing off a handicap mark of 139 last year
* This year he is 10lbs lower and a much better age
* Kelami (2005) won this aged 7 having lost in this race aged 6
* TOUR DES CHAMPS is 0-15 in Class 2 or higher
* That’s a misleading statistic for a number of reasons
* He did place in a Graded Chase at Kempton last time
* I’d give him a great chance on his last run
* I like his light weight and if everything clicks he could win
Selection
TOUR DES CHAMPS 16/1 Each Way
STANDING OVATION 20/1 Saver
TIME FOR RUPERT 14/1 Saver
WRONG TURN 14/1 Saver
Staking Guidance to #10
TOUR DES CHAMPS 16/1 #4 Each Way
STANDING OVATION 20/1 #0.50 Win
TIME FOR RUPERT 14/1 #0.75 Win
WRONG TURN 14/1 #0.75 Win
C h e l t e n h a m 3.15
Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m110y
5/2 Hurricane Fly, 11/4 The New One, 4/1 My Tent Or Yours
4/1 Our Conor, 8/1 Jezki, 20/1 Melodic Rendezvous, 40/1 Ptit Zig
100/1 Grumeti, 200/1 Captain Cee Bee.
* The Champion Hurdle is a Grade 1 over 2 miles
* GRUMETI and CAPTAIN CEE BEE are outclassed
* MELODIC RENDEZVOUS – Not for me on this ground
* OUR CONNOR is a 5 year old and we know these struggle
* You can argue he looks top class on his Triumph form
* My issue with him is simple
* He is a bad age and has just 2 hurdle runs this season
* Several horses have more and are better ages
* It’s all right saying Katchit won as a 5 year old
* He had twice as many recent runs and won a weak renewal
* OUR CONNOR can’t be ruled out in a small field
* I just feel his age and lack of runs detract from his chance
* PTIT ZIG is also a 5 year old
* I don’t see enough positives to overlook his age
* HURRICANE FLY is a 10 year old
* Sea Pigeon in 1981 was the last horse aged over 9 to win
* He won last year but it did look a weaker race
* Win Lose or Draw Statistically we should oppose him
* MY TENT OR YOURS has had a recent injury scare
* He’s won the Fighting Fifth and Christmas Hurdle
* Not many win both and then this race
* Not peaking 3 times in a season although Kribensis did it
* Sure to go well and every chance
* THE NEW ONE must have a decent chance
* Beaten last time out knocks points off his score
* Neptune winners like him have won this race
* All his Cheltenham wins have come on the New course though
* The issue for me is whether he may just want a bit further
* JEZKI can obviously be questioned on recent defeats
* His price compensates for many of these concerns
* Barry Geraghty rides and he is W W W W on the horse
* This race could easily be won by tactics or pace
* I have always liked his chance at a sporting bet
Conclusion
JEZKI 9/1 Each Way
My angles won’t sort this. The market is settled and
the race has just been a delightful puzzle for quite
a while. I don’t feel my view is likely to be any more
insightful than anyone else’s. It is down to hunches
and what you want to happen really. Several could
be considered placed only. You should follow your
own opinion here. I’m taking a chance of JEZKI e/w.
C h e l t e n h a m 4.00
OLBG Mares4 Hurdle
(Registered As The David Nicholson Mares4 Hurdle Race)
Grade 2 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m4f
4/6 Quevega, 8/1 Cockney Sparrow, 8/1 Sirene D4ainay
10/1 Glens Melody, 12/1 Down Ace, 14/1 Cailin Annamh
14/1 Highland Retreat, 20/1 Doyly Carte, 25/1 Jennies Jewel
25/1 L4unique, 50/1 Hidden Identity, 50/1 Top Totti, 50/1 Uddy
66/1 Little King Robin, 66/1 Pass The Time, 200/1 Epee Celeste.
Hard to know what to do here with QUEVEGA trying
to win for the 6th time. She is a 10yo mare and that
is such an obscene prospect she will probably win.
I tried to oppose her two years ago as an 8 year old.
Last year I made a token effort without the favourite.
That could be the strategy here. Some horses are
immune to statistics and she could be one. I do not
want to bet her but I’m open minded she may win.
* HIGHLAND RETREAT – All 10 runs are on right handed tracks
* She’s progressive but the track must be a worry
* DOWN ACE has only had 3 hurdle runs
* She has to come up in distance as well
* I don’t feel she has the numbers to win
* COCKNEY SPARROW fell last time out
* Never a good preparation in a race like this
* Not keen on a 5 year old coming up in distance
* She has never raced beyond 17f yet
* Her Sire who was a miler hasn’t yet bred a 2m 3f + winner
* CAILIN ANNAMH has a difficult 145 day absence
* GLENS MELODY – I like her profile and numbers
* The main worry is whether the ground is too quick
* SIRENE D4AINAY – French raider second last year
Alternatives to Quevega
There is the Place Market and Without The Favourite
markets as well. I wanted to try and isolate the Main
danger to the favourite. I made some notes earlier on
and I also wanted to look at Racing Post Ratings too.
Racing Post Ratings
Run over 19f 20f 21f
Hurdles only
143 Glens Melody
143 Sirene D’Ainay
143 Sirene D’Ainay
143 Glens Melody
140 Glens Melody
139 Glens Melody
139 Glens Melody
137 Cailin Annamh
136 Sirene D’Ainay
132 Cailin Annamh
125 Glens Melody
122 Cailin Annamh
120 HIghland Retreat
This tells me GLENS MELODY and SIRENE D4AINAY
could be the biggest threats to the favourite. There
is the option of betting these without the favourite.
I think the bet is a split stake bet
Selection
Cheltenham 4.00 – QUEVEGA 10/11 Half Stakes to win
Cheltenham 4.00 – GLENS MELODY 5/2 Half Stakes to Place
C h e l t e n h a m 4.40
Terry Biddlecombe National Hunt Chase
Amateur Riders4 Novices4 Chase (Listed Race) 4m
11/4 Foxrock, 3/1 Shutthefrontdoor, 5/1 Shotgun Paddy
8/1 Midnight Prayer, 8/1 Suntiep, 12/1 Rogue Angel, 16/1 Beeves
20/1 Herdsman, 25/1 According To Trev, 25/1 Living Next Door
25/1 Merlin4s Wish, 25/1 Milborough, 33/1 Firm Order
66/1 Adrenalin Flight, 66/1 American Spin.
* This is a 4m Novice Chase for Amateurs
* Quite a manageable field this year
* ADRENALIN FLIGHT can’t win at the weights. Doubtful stayer.
* AMERICAN SPIN – Badly weighted. Out of form. Doubtful stayer
* FIRM ORDER is another that is badly weighted
* Worries me 26 National Hunt runs and no Pattern form
* 17 of the last 20 winners had form in Class 2 or better
* Those without Class 2 form and 13 + runs were 0-34
* FIRM ORDER fails that and is rejected
* The last 21 winners had the following runs that season
* 4-5-9-4-5-5-4-4-4-5-8-5-6-2-7-7-6-5-10-4-4
* Only 1 of the last 21 winners had under 4 runs that year
* I would prefer at least 4 runs that season
* SUNTIEP has only had 2 runs this year
* He’s only had 2 Chase runs before as well
* The Past 24 winners had the following number of Chases
* 5 9 11 3 3 7 4 4 4 4 12 5 1 4 15 9 13 6 10 4 3 3 8
* SUNTIEP with 2 runs looks inexperienced to me
* SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR has been well backed recently
* Jonjo and JP McManus and many are joining in a gamble
* I have some problems with this horse
* First of all you ideally want 4 or more runs this season
* SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR has only had 3 runs
* I could be prepared to overlook that
* He’s absent 87 days and it’s the longest absence in the race
* Asking a lot of him to mix that with few runs this year
* It’s not as of he is a guaranteed stayer
* SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR is sired by Accordion
* This sire’s runners over 3m 6f and more are 0-42
* I have big problems with this horses stamina
* A poor last run doesn’t do much for the confidence either
* Good prospect. Could be a future Gold Cup horse
* Not bred for 4m though. Long absence. Short of runs
* SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR – I am opposing him
* We know Horses by Accordion are 0-42 at 3m 6f or more
* ACCORDING TO TREV is also out of Accordion
* His official rating is lower than ideal
* He comes here F and PU and not for me
* LIVING NEXT DOOR – Failed to complete on last 2 chase runs
* Far from certain to stay as well
* Looks an average handicap badly treated at weights
* MERLIN4S WISH also looks an average handicapper
* Doesn’t look right as a lightly raced 9 year old
* I don’t think he has the class
* MILBOROUGH may lack the class
* He has 3 Chase runs but fell in one of those
* I’d have liked another run and his trainer is awful at Cheltenham
* HERDSMAN is another from an average handicap
* His owner demands respect here but he needs improvement
* The ground could quicker than ideal for him
* BEEVES is average but should stay
* He may not have the guts and is light on backclass
* What bothers me most is he is undersized
* I don’t want a smaller horse with no Cheltenham form
* ROGUE ANGEL was hammered last time
* Not the ideal preparation for a 6 year old
* Won’t be a total shock if he wins
* His profile is wrong and Foxrock has just thrashed him
* MIDNIGHT PRAYER has a reasonable profile
* I’m not keen on his lack of backclass though
* He’s never been in a class 2 race before
* Not convinced he has the class to take this
Shortlist
* SHOTGUN PADDY comes from a Handicap Chase
* There are some past winners that managed that
* Those like him from handicaps over 3m 4f + were 0-25
* I can overlook that given a reasonable profile otherwise
* His profile is certainly shortlistable
* It’s not a perfect match though and not keen on the stable
* FOXROCK is a 6 year old
* He comes out 3rd best at the weights
* In recent years 6yo’s have a disappointing 1-51 record
* Many were massive prices and not fancied
* Many more have finished 2nd and 3rd in the race
* This is also a weak renewal and fewer runners than normal
* These are FOXROCK’s 5 Chase racing post ratings
* 146 146 143 134 134
* That would be good enough in many past renewals
* The last 3 winners all achieved ratings of at least 153
* I liked him last time. Showed a turn of foot
* Laid out for the race though and could be special
Selection
FOXROCK 5/1
Win Bet
C h e l t e n h a m 5.15
Rewards4Racing Novices4 Handicap Chase
(Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+ 0-140) 2m4f110y
6/1 Pendra, 8/1 Manyriverstocross, 8/1 Present View
10/1 Ericht, 11/1 Persian Snow, 12/1 Art Of Logistics
14/1 Baby Mix, 14/1 Buthelezi, 14/1 Buywise, 14/1 Close House
16/1 Attaglance, 16/1 Festive Affair, 16/1 Ohio Gold
20/1 Ahyaknowyerself, 20/1 Dursey Sound, 20/1 King Vuvuzela
20/1 Tony Star, 20/1 Up To Something, 25/1 Gardefort
33/1 Grandads Horse.
* This is a Novice Handicap Chase over 2m4f110y
* There are 9 past renewals of this race
* These were the age results
* Horses aged 5 are 1-15
* Horses aged 6 are 1-31
* Horses aged 7 are 6-73
* Horses aged 8 are 1-37
* Horses aged 9 + are 0-20
* The 9 winners had 5 9 4 3 3 4 6 3 5 Chase starts
* The 9 winners had 4 7 5 3 3 4 6 3 5 runs this season
* The 9 winners all ran within 60 days
The previous two renewals of this race were radically
different from the other 7 past renewals. The race has
changed shape a bit and personally I would not trust
any angles here.
* PENDRA is absent 80 days longer than all 9 winners
* The 1st 2nd 3rd in every renewal all had more recent runs
* He flopped at last years festival with a difficult absence
* I’d worry about the ground and a big field
* I just don’t feel he offers me enough
* TONY STAR has to go absent 143 days
* KING VUVUZELA looks too exposed
* BABY MIX – Don’t want him with a big weight
* Not a natural chaser. A lightly framed horse
* In a big field he may well get found out
* MANYRIVERSTOCROSS is a 9yo
* He would be the oldest winner of this race
* I don’t like that he had a Flat career
* He’s had injury problems. Stress Fracture. Bad Legs
* I don’t fancy him as a 9 year old
* PRESENT VIEW won a handicap over 2m 5f recently
* It was the same handicap Hunt Ball won before winning this
* Worries me he has a lot of form on shaper tracks
* Worries me he has shown his hand to the handicapper too
* As a 6 year old from a small stable he isn’t first choice
* The longest absence from the track was 60 days
* BUTHELEZI is 6 and absent 99 days
* Not completely genuine he isn’t my choice
* ART OF LOGISTICS is absent 75 days
* That’s longer than every past winner
* He looks a strong traveller that likes fast ground
* Lots to like but his absence isn’t the only challenge he has
* No 6yo has won this coming up in distance
* FESTIVE AFFAIR has the same problem
* He is 6 and up in trip and McCoy has rejected him
* PERSIAN SNOW doesn’t offer enough
* CLOSE HOUSE – His track form looks very untidy
* I wouldn’t trust him and he comes from a 2m race
* BUYWISE has just won 3 races on sharp tracks
* He’s won off 102 109 and 120
* I don’t want him off 134 at Cheltenham
* OHIO GOLD was 3rd in last years race
* He’s a bit exposed and others may improve past him
* He hasn’t seemed to progress from last year
Shortlist
* ERICHT has topweight but that’s not an issue
* He has 2 good festival runs over hurdles and bumpers
* He looks a progressive smart horse with a serious chance
* The ground will suit him and he is one of the more likely winners
* ATTAGLANCE is a bit exposed but has big claims
* He was 4th in the Paddy Power Gold Cup off the same mark
* If he can do that he can win this
* He likes a big field and is a Festival winner over hurdles
* I don’t think he stayed 3 miles last time over hurdles
* His form and breeding raise doubts he can stay 3m
* He had topweight over a distance too far
* I give him a very good chance here
* He will love the drying ground as well
Selection
ATTAGLANCE 14/1 Each Way
ERICHT 10/1 Saver
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Posted under Major Horse Races
This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 12, 2014