Cheltenham Festival Ryanair Chase

Cheltenham Festival   
  
March 14th

Ryanair Chase


Looking at the Ryanair Chase today
Impossible to have an outright selection
I am just shortlisting the ideal types.

Current Rough Ante Post Odds
7/1 Waiting Patiently 7/1 Min 10/1 Top Notch
12/1 Monalee 16/1 Politologue 16/1 Un De Sceaux
18/1 Fox Norton 18/1 Aso 20/1 Balko Des Flos 
20/1 Tout Est Permis 22/1 Frodon 22/1 Footpad 
25/1 Charbel  33/1 Al Boum Photo 33/1 Coney Island  
40/1 Kemboy
  
Grade 1 Chase over 2m 4.5f
14 renewals of this race 
Upgraded to a Grade 1 in 2008

The is an Ante Post nightmare 
Never know which horses will run
Most of them have alternative races

Betfair have 16 horses
that are under 40/1 right now
So trying to filter through a few

Number of Chase runs

21 Frodon
19 Un De Sceaux 
18 Aso
18 Fox Norton 
15 Balko Des Flos 
14 Politologue
12 Top Notch
11 Charbel 
11 Tout Est Permis
9 Min
8  Kemboy
7 Coney Island  
7 Waiting Patiently 
7 Al Boum Photo
7  Footpad  
7 Monalee

 
The last 7 winners

Had 10 11 6 9 7 8 8  Chase runs 
They all had 7-11 previous chases
That would be the ideal mixture

Horses with 12 or more Chases
Have a 0-32 record since 2011

They won a couple before that
But recent years have struggled

FRODON with 21 Chase runs
Is the most exposed of the main runners
That would put me off his chance
He's never performed in the Spring

UN DE SCEAUX is 11 years old
No horse that age has won this race
2 years older than his biggest rivals
With 19 Chase runs looks vulnerable
ASO is exposed with 18 Chases
Well beaten in the race before
FOX NORTON has 18 Chase runs
Not the best age or exposure level
 
BALKO DES FLOS has 15 chases
Thats 4 more than the last 7 winners
He did win the race last year
And his owners sponsor the race
So it is far too early to rule him out
But he is not like recent winners now

POLITOLOGUE has 14 chase runs
Thats more than recent winners
Never seems to deliver at the festival
Unplaced on all 4 Cheltenham runs
He lacks enough positives for me

Some of these look unlikely runners
FOOTPAD may run in the Queen Mother
KEMBOY may run in the Gold Cup
 
TOUT EST PERMIS is only a 6yo
Only 1 horse his age has won this
That was before it was a Grade 1
He is far more exposed than he was

All 14 past winners 
Had 2-3-4 runs that season 
That seems quite significant
CHARBEL has more runs this year
On the go since last September
That is not like any past winner
Not bred like a Ryanair winner

WAITING PATIENTLY has had hold ups
So far he has raced once this season
He only got as far as 9 fences that day
I would want 2-3-4 runs this season
Every past winner had that
He is a long way from that right now
Could and needs to run this Saturday
That will help so asses him after that
But with 1 run and just 9 fences this year
He may look undercooked in March

Shortlist

CONEY ISLAND has 7 chase runs
That gets him on the shortlist
But he has no Cheltenham form
And is well behind on the ratings

AL BOUM PHOTO has 7 runs
Puts him in a good place statistically
Heed another run this season
That will probably come at the weekend
Obvious danger is running elsewhere

TOP NOTCH has 12 chase runs
I'd forgive him just 1 more than ideal
He is obviously a high class horse
Should get the small field he wants
The smaller the better as he is undersized
Could be the one but not problem free
Past 8yo winners were less exposed

MONALEE has 7 chase runs
That is ideal and he is a positive
He could also run this weekend

MIN has 9 Chase starts
I have to see him as a positive
But he has other options elsewhere
He could run in the Queen Mother
At the moment just 1 run this year
Having 1 run would rule him out 
But he is likely to run on Saturday 






Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on January 23, 2019

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