Cheltenham Gold Cup 2018 – Initial Thoughts

Posted up below are some initial thoughts on the 2018 Cheltenham Gold Cup.

They were sent to full members as part of our Future Betting Angles sub section on March the 4th.

This is early thought stuff from Guy.

More information will have slotted into place by the day of the race itself.

- Who is definitely running?

- What will the going be?

- What are the morning odds on offer?

- Where is the value?

 

We will post up his day of race final conclusion here on this blog too.

Guy has a strong long term profit record in the race as you can judge at this link

Cheltenham Gold Cup Free Tip

 

Free feel to follow on twitter as we will tweet when his day of race analysis is up here for you.

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup – Thoughts From March 4th

Might Bite (4) Native River (13/2) Sizing John (7)
Our Duke (9) Killultagh Vic (10) Road To Respect (10)
Definitly Red (20) Total Recall (20)Edwulf (25)
Minella Rocco (25) Cue Card (33) Djakadam (33)
Outlander (33) Anibale Fly (40) Bachasson (40)
Double Shuffle (40) Tea For Two (66) Saphir Du Rheu (100)

Could this be a Soft Ground Gold Cup ?
Only 2 of the last 20 were run on soft/heavy

What effect will that have ?

MIGHT BITE’s may not want it soft
As his stamina will be tested more
His Sire is Scorpion
Scorpions runners in Class 4 or higher
Have yet to win any race past 3m 1f

NATIVE RIVER has just 1 run this season
That is not a good sign statistically
Soft ground could compound that
SAPHIR DU RHEU has the same problem

DJAKADAM has 18 Chase runs
Thats too exposed these days
Has he not had his chance ?
His sire has not bred a winner
On softer ground in Class 2 +beyond 3m 1f

OUR DUKE has a 27 day absence
Cheltenham Gold Cup since 1997
Horses running in the last 32 days
Have a 0-62 record in the last 21 years
OUR DUKE will fail this 0-62 record
Has his last run left it’s mark ?
He also comes from a 2m 4f race
The only horses that managed that
Were 9 year olds and he is younger
He also has no Cheltenham form

We know that the past 7yo winners
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
I would be worried about a 7 year old
If having just 1-2 runs this season
And if the ground is softer than usual
That could well hurt BACHASSON

SIZING JOHN won this last year
But he has raced just twice this season
He has now had 13 Chase starts
Thats more than any past winner
Who had under 3 runs this season
He ran badly last time as well
And it is not easy to retain your title
His Breeding stats are weaker on soft
Horses sired by Midnight Legend
Soft and heavy ground
Class 2 grade and higher
Have a 0-19 record over 3m 2f +

TOTAL RECALL has breeding issues
Horses sired by Westerner
3m 2f or more
Good to soft or worse
Class 2 or higher
Return a 0-23 record
He also comes from a hurdle race
None have done that in decades
And he has no Grade 1 winning form

KILLULTAGH VIC is inexperienced
The last 21 winners had the following chase runs
18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
He only has 3 Chase starts
The 2016 winners managed that
But he had more runs that season
And did not come here after a fall

ANIBALE FLY 33/1 fell last time
Hardly the best preparation
Neither trainer or sire look welcoming
Stamina has to be proven as well
The last 16 winners of this race
Had won a Grade 1 race and he hasn’t

 
 
If we take out the rank outsiders
Available at 100/1 and more on Betfair
We are left with the following horses

 

Potential Shock Winners

MINELLA ROCCO 33/1
EDWULF 25/1
ROAD TO RESPECT 10/1
DEFINITELY RED 20/1
DOUBLE SHUFFLE 40/1

 

MINELLA ROCCO 33/1

Horrible trainer to trust
But you can trust him in this race
He was 2nd last year after all
You have to see him as a spring horse
My worry is that on soft or heavy
His Racing Post Ratings drop badly
The better the ground the better his chance
And he has yet to win a Grade 1

 
EDWULF 25/1

Surely his last run suggests
That his injury last year is overcome
I fancied him big time at Cheltenham
May have won without breaking down
Just imagine if he had won that race
Would he not be half the price than he is

 
ROAD TO RESPECT 10/1

I like 10 chase runs and much about him
His last 2 runs were career bests
Is he bred to win a Gold Cup though
Sire was a 12f Flat horse after all
But positives far outweigh negatives

 
DEFINITELY RED 20/1

Unfashionable but solid
Consider his Cotswold Chase win
His Racing Post Rating was 172 that day
When Sizing John won the 2017 Gold Cup
His Racing Post Rating was only 171
That surely gets him shortlisted
If he stays no shock if he won
He has not yet won a Grade 1 though
Been a long time since a winner didn’t

 
DOUBLE SHUFFLE 40/1

Second in a King George is significant
What if he wasn’t flattered that day ?
Profile and sire stats are positive
He has placed at a Cheltenham Festival
Needed his first 2 runs this season
There are a lot worse bets at 40/1

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 6, 2018

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