Cheltenham Gold Cup Part 2

The last day of the Festival
Cheltenham Gold Cup Day

That race is our main target
Edwulf is our ante post bet
We have £5 stake remaining
Increasing stakes on Edwulf
With the saver on Might Bite



Gold Cup Staking Explained

Already Advised Ante Post

Edwulf 20/1 £3 Win
Edwulf 20/1 £2 Place
£5 Staked Ante Post

Remaining £5 Stake Today
£3 Win Edwulf 16/1
£2 Might Bite 4/1

Leaves this final stakes
£3 Win Edwulf 20/1
£3 Win Edwulf 16/1
£2 Place Edwulf 20/1
£2 Saver Might Bite 4/1



EDWULF is given the chance
He is a 16/1 semi-outsider
It would not be any surprise
Were he to win or pull up today
I am hoping it will be the former
And win lose of draw today
I am happy with our 16/1-20/1
He may just have the momentum
And he is close enough on ratings



CHELTENHAM 3.30 – THE GOLD CUP

7/2 Might Bite, 4/1 Native River, 13/2 Our Duke,
9/1 Killultagh Vic, 10/1 Definitly Red, 10/1 Road To Respect,
14/1 Edwulf, 14/1 Total Recall, 20/1 Djakadam,
25/1 American, Anibale Fly, 33/1 Bachasson,
33/1 Outlander, 50/1 Tea For Two, 66/1 Saphir Du Rheu

EDWULF is my Gold Cup horse
He has come here late under the radar
Most presumed he’d never run again
After what happened to him last year
Blew me away at Navan in Feb 2017
My Cheltenham Banker in the 4 miler
Had would have been 1st or 2nd there
EDWULF then collapsed in spasms
Looking like he might even die
Lost his eyesight which has returned

How do we know he is not the best horse
Or the horse best suited to the Gold Cup
He looked a machine to me last season
What happened to him in 2017 is a concern
But he appears to have overcome that now

That should be seen as a sign of courage
Wrong to assume he is soft and damaged
He has just won a Grade 1 Chase in Ireland
Beating several horses he faces today
And he has done that in impressive style
When he had not had a proper race all year
I do not believe that race was any fluke
EDWULF is a guaranteed stayer unlike many
He does not have to improve that much

On Official ratings MIGHT BITE is top rated on 169
EDULF is only 4lbs lower on 165
That is not much to find at all
When on his Racing Post Ratings
EDWULF comes here on a career best



Number of Chase runs

19 Djakadam
17 Outlander
15 Saphir Du Rheu
13 Definitly Red
13 Tea For Two
12 Native River
11 Mala Beach
10 Road To Respect
10 Edwulf
10 Anibale Fly
9 Might Bite
8 Total Recall
7 Our Duke
5 Bachasson
5 American
3 Killultagh Vic

Under 15 Chase runs is ideal
The more over 15 you have
The less your chance of winning
The Previous 22 Gold Cup winners
Had the following career chase runs

9 18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11
12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11

20 of the 22 last Gold Cup winners
Had under 15 previous chase runs
Kauto Star was one of the exceptions
Don Cossack managed it in a weak year
Generally speaking you want <15 chases

DJAKADAM is too exposed
He has already had his chance
His sire has not bred a soft ground winner
In Class 2 or higher beyond 3m 1f

OUTLANDER is too exposed now
Horses aged 10 + are 1-104 since 1992
Doesn’t stay this trip well enough
SAPHIR DU RHEU is overexposed
Especially with just 1 run this season

MALA BEACH is outclassed
Horses aged 10 + are just 1-104 since 1992
TEA FOR TWO is outclassed

BACHASSON is a 7 year old
Past 7yo Gold Cup winners
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
I would be worried about a 7 year old
If having just 2 runs this season
I don’t fancy him given the conditions

There are several unproven stayers
TOTAL RECALL has breeding issues
Horses sired by Westerner
3m 2f or more
Good to soft or worse
Class 2 or higher
Return a 0-23 record
He also comes from a hurdle race
None have done that in decades
And he has no Grade 1 winning form

ANIBALE FLY 33/1 fell last time
Hardly the best preparation
Neither trainer or sire look welcoming
Stamina has to be proven as well
The last 16 winners of this race
Had won a Grade 1 race and he hasn’t

NATIVE RIVER has to be respected
He was 3rd in last years race
But he had 4 prep runs beforehand
This year he only has 1 warm up race
That is not a good sign statistically
Soft ground could compound that
He has raced just once in 364 days
So I do not feel that drawn to him

KILLUTAGH VIC is inexperienced
He only has 3 previous Chase runs
The last 22 winners had the following
9 18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11
12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11

21 of the 22 winners had at least 5 runs
Coneygree (2015) was the only exception
He had a safer profile that Killultagh Vic
Coneygree had more runs that season
And He did not come here after a fall
KILLUTAGH VIC has 2 runs in 14 months
He fell in one of those races as well
Not for me in with 3 chases on bad ground
Not in a big field with so few runs this year

AMERICAN has 5 Chase starts
That would be the bare minimum
He has only raced twice this season
Only 1 and a half times really
As he pulled up in one of those runs
It may be asking too much from him

OUR DUKE is clearly very talented
After beaten in Ireland by Edwulf
He did win last time at Gowran Park
Not sure that is a great preparation
OUR DUKE has a 27 day absence
Cheltenham Gold Cup since 1997
Horses running in the last 32 days
Have a 0-62 record in the last 21 years
OUR DUKE fails this 0-62 record
He also comes from a 2m 4f race
The only horses that managed that
Were 9 year olds and he is younger
He also lacks any Cheltenham form
He would make it on a long shortlist
High class prospect but lots to prove

ROAD TO RESPECT has every chance
But he has to prove his stamina
I like 10 chase runs and much about him
His last 2 runs were career bests
Is he bred to win a Gold Cup though
Sire was a 12f Flat horse after all
Take the sires runners in Class 4 +
None have yet won beyond 3m 1f
I see positives and negatives
But he does not make the staking



Shortlist

DEFINITELY RED is shortlistable
Unfashionable but seems solid
Consider his Cotswold Chase win
Racing Post Rating was 172 that day
Sizing John won the 2017 Gold Cup
His Racing Post Rating was only 171
If he stays no shock if he won this
But I do have some reservations
His last Racing Post Rating of 171
Might well have flattered him
My other problem is his class
He has not yet won a Grade 1 though
Been a long time since a winner didn’t
He has only just come out of handicaps
As Ireland are dominating this game
Can we really expect a Northern winner ?

MIGHT BITE has to prove his stamina
But put that aside for one moment
He is the highest rated horse in the race
He is W W W W W in his last 5 races
That includes a RSA Chase
It also includes a King George Chase
Without a doubt he is the class horse
But he’s not shown that over this far
And heavy ground won’t make it easier
MIGHT BITE is sired by Scorpion
Scorpions runners in Class 4 or higher
Have yet to win any race past 3m 1f
But very few have actually tried yet



Selection

We have an Ante Post Bet

£3 Win £2 Place EDWULF 20/1

The remaining £5 Stake today
£3 EDWULF 16/1
£2 MIGHT BITE 4/1

This leaves this final staking

Leaves this final stakes

EDWULF

£3 Win Edwulf 20/1 [past advised ]
£3 Win Edwulf 16/1
£2 Place Edwulf 20/1 [ past advised ]
£2 Saver Might Bite 4/1

MIGHT BITE 4/1

£2 Saver Bet

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 16, 2018

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