Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats

You will have no trouble finding stats for the Gold Cup.

Below however are some of my own extracted from my 50 page
Cheltenham stats document. Use them to supplement your own
study of the race or even better perhaps, save your brain
cells and read my own final interpretation of this race on
race day as a client.

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

We did well in this race year using the excessive media hype
around the the Kauto Star Long Run battle to pick of value
odds on Synchronised. See a copy of our reasoning at this
link    Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

 

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2013 Stats

Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

 

* The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y

* 16 of the last 17 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts

* The exception was Kauto Star with 20 Chases in 2009

* The last 16 winners ran in the following number of chases

* 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11

* Exposed horses with 21 + runs in England struggled

* Ignoring French runs they had a 0-88 record

* You are best with an improving lightly raced horse

* Horses aged between 7 and 9 have the best record.

* They’ve won 17 of the last 19 Cheltenham Gold Cups.

* Horses aged 10 do not have a great record

* Horses aged 10 have a 1-93 record since 1992

* Horses aged 11 and over haven’t won since 1969

* All 38 that ran in the last 18 years lost.

* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season.

* I wouldn’t’t want a horse with fewer runs that season

* Horses absent more than 10 weeks are fine

* Previous track form is a serious advantage in this race.

* This advantage is increased if horse had Festival form.

* 12 of the last 15 winners placed at a previous Festival.

* Almost all past winners placed or fell last time out

* The only exception was 2011 winner 5th in a Grade 1

* Every winner had won in one of their last 6 races.

* A rating of around 166 is needed to win this race

* Horses from a Grade 1 – Grade 2 chase last time are best

* Horses that placed or won a Grade 1/Grade 2 were best

* Every winner since 1992 had managed that

* A Novice has not won the Gold Cup since 1974

* Two recent winners came from Handicaps

* Both those winners had Grade 1 Form before

* No winners since 1979 had ran on the Flat

 

 

Service News

Cheltenham betting action has started already with a long
odds ante post tip advised to clients this morning. Ante Post
betting before the start of the Festival is safer these days
with an abundance of non runner no bet offers.

We are playing in the 2.40 on Tuesday – The JLT Specialty
Handicap Chase

This was yet another good race for us in 2012 with advised
bet ALFIE SHERRIN winning nicely for us. ALFIE SHERRIN was
available at 20/1 at bookmakers for hours after we tipped
him and probably even greater odds were available on betfair
.

We said at the time:

* ALFIE SHERRIN is very interesting

* Go back to the 2010 Cheltenham Festival

* He was a huge gamble starting 11/4 for the Pertemps

* He was Paul Nicholls trained then moved to Jonjo

* Had his quirks – been hard to train – but has some positives

* ALFIE SHERRIN is rated 147 over hurdles

* Today over fences he is rated 129

* The first thing we know is he is very well treated

* The next thing we know are his connections

* JP McManus and Jonjo O’Neill

* We know we can put a line through several runs

* There is every chance he has been saved for this race

* I opposed him in the Midlands Grand National

* He was too inexperienced and after than he was unreadable

* Switched between Hurdles and Chases and different distances

* I think he is being conditioned to win a good race

* His jumping may not be as safe as I’d like

* Not sure how robust or reliable he is

* I watched both his last two races though

* Both left me certain he was given quiet rides

* JPMcManus paid £110k for this horse. He wasn’t cheap.

* He should be much happier on this ground

* Not keen he comes from hurdles or out or the handicap

* I do think the good outweighs the bad at 20/1 +

* Tony McCoy can’t do 10st which is why he doesn’t ride

* I see him very much as the Stables Number 1 option

* He could easily fall or go missing without trace

* Equally he is thrown in and this could be his day

 

But who are we on this year?

 

Take the secret cheap deal and find out.

Be sure to pick up today’s message in our member area when
you do.

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

 

Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races