Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)  3m2f110y

7/4 Long Run, 7/2 Kauto Star, 15/2 Burton Port
11/1 Synchronised, 12/1 Midnight Chase, 12/1 Weird Al
20/1 What A Friend, 33/1 Diamond Harry
40/1 Time For Rupert, 50/1 China Rock, 66/1 Carruthers
66/1 The Giant Bolster, 100/1 Knockara Beau
100/1 The Midnight Club.

The Gold Cup is always fascinating and is again this year
as well. You will no doubt have your own views about it
and may already be involved. I am going to see where a
few of my statistics lead me. It was 1969 before we last
had a winner aged 11 or more and for all his brilliance I
do oppose KAUTO STAR as a 12 year old. I dont think
its relevant what he has done at Kempton or Haydock
this season. Judge him on Gold Cup form and he failed
in 2011 and 2010 and never looked like winning either
of the last two renewals. I think something should beat
him. I would also go as far as saying he might not place
either. DIAMOND HARRY isn’t safe enough and dont
think he’s about to win a Gold Cup on this course. I’m
against BURTON POINT with just one run so far this
season. Every past winners had more. There must be a
chance he will bounce after his Newbury run and I feel
he is too risky. He’s also a small horse that wont enjoy
this race of it gets rough in any way. I couldnt be with
him having just that one race. MIDNIGHT CHASE is
now an exposed 10 year old and whilst not a negative
horses his age have struggled recently. He doesn’t have
the right exposure and is rated a bit lower than is ideal.

P o s s i b l e s

WEIRD AL

WEIRD AL pulled up in last years race but He has been
quietly shortening in the betting this year and now 12/1
a much shorter price than you may expect. He is hard
to read. I can argue he’s lower than the minimum rating
I think you want. I can argue he did not quite do enough
on his last start but there is nothing statistically wrong
with his chance other than minor infringments. I also
think its quite interesting he has upgraded stables since
last year. He had a larynx problem that required surgery
after the Hennessy in 2001 and Bled in last years Gold
Cup. He is now with Donald McCain who has not raced
him since November. This horse is Best Fresh. The big
doubt is whether he is Man enough for the race. He was
a Boy last year. A Sickly child needing operations and
having physical problems. He was asked to do a bit too
much and wasn’t finishing races and getting distressed.

He was out of his depth and couldn’t cope. Now he has
a new trainer another year on his back and has shown
he isn’t far away from his best. Has that extra year or
new stable made him a Man Has he gone through the
process of Boy to Man or is he still weak and waiting
to crumble once tested to the maximum stress of any
Gold Cup. I dont know but he’s one of those that may
win or finish last and may be a win bet and a place lay.

S h o r t l i s t

LONG RUN

* LONG RUN – Statistically there are no problems
* Like many I haven’t been impressed with him this year
* My own view is winning this aged 6 knocked him back
* He is shortlistable and probably around the right price
* He will have to run and jump his best this year to win

WHAT A FRIEND

* Statistically I pass him as fine
* He fails 3 stats but only by the width of an Atom
* I want a 166 rating and he is 165
* I want a 1st or 2nd last time and he was 3rd
* I want a win within 6 runs and his came 7 runs ago
* I can ignore All that especially as he is 25/1 +
* I think this horse has been unfairly pidgeon holed
* He gets a lot of criticism as being ungenuine
* Many dont realise what he was up against
* I want to put the case for the defence
* WHAT A FRIEND won his first 2 chases in 2009
* Nothing wrong at all with that
* He was then hammered in the Sun Alliance
* When he flopped in the Sun Alliance I expected it
* Big negative that day with only 2 Chase starts
* We opposed him and he had the wrong preparation
* He won next time at Stratford
* First time out 2009-2010 he was 2nd in the Hennessy
* Second in Denmans Hennessy was a creditable effort
* WHAT A FRIEND won a Grade 1 next time
* He then went and won another Grade 1 after that
* He was beaten then at Haydock in November 2010
* That was first time out so hardly worth damming him
* He was odds on in the 2001 Aon Chase
* People criticised him but he did come second
* That day he had just 1 run that year and a long break
* I had him as a negative in that race and not safe
* His 2011 Gold Cup run was very good
* He was only beaten 11 lengths by Long run
* Ignore his run in the 2011 Grand National
* He didnt stay and he was technically still a 7yo
* None have won in decades and that was no shame
* This year he had a reasonable prep race at Newbury
* That will set him up with a chance in this race
* Whenever this horse has lost he has been criticised
* Almost every time he has there was a genuine excuse.
* WHAT A FRIEND should be half his price

SYNCHRONISED

I said in the January 21st message that my early choice
for the Gold Cup was SYNCHRONISED and nothing has
changed my mind. I see Pricewise have tipped him so it
may be a point shorter than expected but this horse has
a massive chance. His 2011 Welsh National win was so
impressive statistically he looked at Gold Cup horse at
that point. His Lexus chase win may have been a slow
time but thast wasn’t his fault as he oozed class. I have
never felt he was ground dependant and its clear he has
been trained like a Gold Cup winner and not overfaced
in unneccesary races and I get the impression his yard
have known for a while he could be up to this class.

SELECTION

LONG RUN 2/1
WHAT A FRIEND 25/1
SYNCHRONISED  10/1

I think one of these will win. LONG RUN is clearly the
most likely winner but he’s short and with 3 shortlisted
staking becomes a problem. There is a market which is
“without the two favourites” Long Run and Kauto Star
and I was tempted by WHAT A FRIEND each way in
that market around 10/1. Thats tempting and I have a
small bet on that myself but for several weeks now I’ve
been very keen on SYNCHRONISED and he is my bet.

SYNCHRONISED 10/1

Nb blog comment:  10/1 now gone but was about earlier when full members got this.

9/1 available at ladbrokes – s james – bet365

PS Chelt Deal offer available for the rest of this week

see http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

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Posted under Major Horse Races