Close To A Big Cigar

Close to a big Cigar yesterday for full members.

Beaten by a neck in the second leg almost landing an 87/1 win double.

Seeing how a race was assessed and trying to learn from it can often be beneficial. You can follow Guy’s reasoning  below.

 

CHELTENHAM 2.05

Neptune Investment Management Novices? Hurdle
(Registered As Baring Bingham Novices? Hurdle)
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m5f

9/4 So Young, 3/1 Oscars Well, 6/1 First Lieutenant
8/1 Rock On Ruby, 10/1 Minella Class, 10/1 Tornado Bob
14/1 Megastar, 25/1 Aikman, 33/1 Habbie Simpson
50/1 Highland Valley, 100/1 Accordintolawrence
100/1 Ohio Gold.

This is a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle over 2m 5f. Recently
some of the long established biases in this race changed
and several of the strongest angles are now looking out
of date and there has been a sea change. At least we can
argue that this hardly ever goes to a huge price winner.

* Horses aged 5 and 6 dominate this race
* I dont like AIKMAN as a 7 year old
* Not without form in Graded Class before
* MEGASTAR was beaten too far last time
* Horses from similar races to him had a miserable record
* OHIO GOLD is outclassed
* ACCORDINTOLAWRENCE is also outclassed
* HIGHLAND VALLEY looks the wrong type
* You don’t want horses coming from ordinary Novices
* HABBIE SIMPSON showed his limitations last time

POSSIBLES

* SO YOUNG comes with a massive reputation
* It will be interesting to see how good he is
* SO YOUNG has a lot to prove in my view
* He has no form in Graded Class run
* 5 of the last 6 winners came from Graded Class
* 11 of the last 13 winners ran in Grade 1-2 class over hurdles
* 16 of the last 17 winners had Grade 1-2 form before
* SO YOUNG Lacks that and its a problem
* Especially as he comes from a 2m race
* There have been recent winners coming from 2m races
* They all came from Graded races over 2m
* SO YOUNG has only raced twice over hurdles before
* I dont like his profile and felt he wanted Graded backclass

* They are three Grade 1 Novice Hurdles at the festival
* This race – The Supreme Novice – The Albert Bartleyy
* There are 37 renewals of these races in recent years
* I looked at horses that had Never run in Grade 1 or Grade 2
* There was a miserable 4-280 record
* Three of the 4 runners had Under 4 career starts
* Gallileo (1 run) Indefence (3 runs) Shadow Leader (2 runs)
* Horses doing this with 4 or more starts were 1-148
* Last years Supreme winner Menorah did it with 5 runs
* He was the only horse thats done it with 4 + runs
* TORNADO BOB has to try and beat that with 7 runs
* TORNADO BOB has to be a negative
* He has 7 runs yet no Graded form and beaten last time
* SO YOUNG has 3 runs since coming from France
* Thats slightly less of a worry but its still a big issue
* Because of this I would question SO YOUNG

SHORTLIST

OSCARS WELL

I dont have a statistical problem with this horse. Statistically  he appears fine.
My reservations would be the ground as he’s not faced ground as quick as
this and it may trouble him. It’s more than possible his Grade One win last
time may take a  lot out of him.

* MINELLA CLASS can’t be ruled out of this
* He is 6 and comes from a 2m 5f race
* Horses with 4-5-6 runs have a strangely bad record
* MINELLA CLASS casts a seed of doubt because of it

* FIRST LIEUTENANT last ran in December
* All past winners had raced in January or Febuary
* I’d ignore that statistic as he misses it by 3 days only
* He has to come from a  2m race but he looks reasonable
* He looks the right sort to run fresh

* ROCK ON RUBY has a reasonable chance
* I looked at 6 year olds from 2m 5f races
* There were 3 winners and they were different
* They were either very lightly raced
* Or much more experienced
* You have to wonder if his last run was good enough
* I would also have liked more hurdle runs
* I’d see him as no more than a Possible
* I think He will improve on faster ground
* His full sister loved faster ground
* I see him as the second best each way option

SELECTION

My Stats show that SO YOUNG has a strong statistical
problem that no horse at the festival has yet overcome
in any of the Novice Races. My reservation about that
statistic apart from the infectious gossip suggesting he’s
working like a Champion is that there are just 12 horses
in the race. This is the Smallest Field for this race since
the 1980′s and that will help SO YOUNG and undermine
my statistic especially as several of these are outsiders.

CHELTENHAM 2.40

RSA Chase Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m110y

9/4 Time For Rupert, 7/1 Aiteen Thirtythree
7/1 Jessies Dream, 9/1 Wayward Prince , 10/1 Mikael
D´haguenet, 10/1 Wymott, 12/1 Bostons Angel
14/1 Master Of The Hall, 14/1 Quel Esprit
14/1 The Giant Bolster, 20/1 Magnanimity
100/1 Elysian Rock.

* This is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m

TIME FOR RUPERT

Second in last years World Hurdle TIME FOR RUPERT is
a Grade 1 winner in waiting. If he wins this one it will have to be
without my money. I have some problems with him.
The last 10 winners had 5 3 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4 chase starts
and he looks inexperienced to me with only 2 races. He is
going to have to try and overcome that with an absence of
95 days. We havent had a winner defy more than 53 days
since 1991 in this race and that could impact on his fencing
considering his inexperienced. On top of that just two races
this year leave him short of runs. He has fewer than any of the
past winners in recent years. Not from a top stable he’s got
flaws in his profile and looks underpriced to me.

* THE GIANT BOLSTER is the only 6yo in the race
* Not the best aged group and from a small stable
* No winners came from Novice Handicaps over 21f or less
* I see that as unsatisfactory and he looks wrong
* I’d want at least 3 or more runs this season
* Only 1 of the last 16 winners had under 3 runs that year
* ELYSIAN ROCK is not up to this class
* MASTER OF THE HALL looks unsafe to me
* I find him a little bit on the inexperienecd side
* Not convinced he will stay or like this course
* His Trainer has questioned his stamina over this far
* He made mistakes on his only run here
* He has too much form on flat tracks for me
* AITEEN THIRTYTHREE only has 2 Chase starts
* He has less experience than any recent winners
* That troubles me and he is not for me
* Not sure how comfortable he will be in this sort of race
* I looked at 7 year olds without Grade 1 form before
* There were 4 winners and they all had 4 + runs that year
* AITEEN THIRTYTHREE fails that with just 3 runs
* QUEL ESPRIT only has 2 Chase starts and fell in one
* He looks short of chase experience

SHORTLIST

* BOSTONS ANGEL looks fine statistically
* Not sure if he will be good enough though
* His 2 Graded Chase wins came out of the blue
* Faster ground could be a problem as well
* MAGNANIMITY comes from the same race
* MAGNANIMITY has no obvious profile issues
* I would worry most about the faster ground
* He looks a horse that may want it softer
* MIKAEL D´HAGUENET has the right number of runs
* He fits my profile like a glove in that regard
* The only angle he fails is he wasnt 1st or 2nd last time
* I don’t mind that as it was in a Grade 1 race and was 3rd
* He has also won at festival before over hurdles
* It is off putting he has not won any of 3 chase starts
* There are doubts about his jumping
* He does tend to jump right handed
* His sire has a far better record with his hurdling runners
* WYMOTT has just had enough experience
* He would appeat to have a reasonably solid chance
* I did look at 7 year olds without Grade 1 form before
* There were 4 winners and they all had 4 + runs that year
* WYMOTT has 3 runs and I’d have liked another
* All 4 winners  also prepped at 3m and he didnt
* One to two minor flaws in his profile for me
* I also dont like the  cheekpieces for a RSA horse
* WAYWARD PRINCE is a little on the inexperienced side
* He has a bare minimum of runs but I’d like a few more
* I looked at all similar 7yo’s with 1-2-3 runs that year
* There were 2 winners in recent years
* Those winning Novice Chases last time were 0-15
* Not a bad overall profile but not a very close match

SELECTION

* JESSIES DREAM has 5 Chase starts
* That will give him an edge over several of these
* The only statistic he fails is a run 66 days ago
* Every Past winner since 1991 ran within 52 days
* I think that has to be forgiveable
* You can argue just 1 of the last 12 winners were 8yo’s
* Several won before that though and I dont see an issue
* He will appreciate the better ground as well
* There is the fact he has no Cheltenham form
* That is a worry but he also has advantages
* I love the fact he has 5 runs over fences
* His market dangers all conceded him that experience
* Time For Rupert and Ainteen Thirty Three have just 2 runs
* Wymott -Wayward Prince – Mikael Dhaguenet  just 3 runs
* JESSIES DREAM could be best placed to handle this race

CHELTENHAM 2.05  – FIRST LIEUTENANT 7/1

CHELTENHAM 2.40  – JESSIES DREAM 8/1

Each Way Double

Posted under Major Horse Races

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