Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup

Full members had an exciting ride yesterday
with an advised each way double on  JESSIES DREAM
and  FIRST LIEUTENANT.

FIRST LIEUTENANT won setting up JESSIES DREAM
to complete an 87/1 double at Starting Price. Agony to watch with
JESSIES DREAM going odds on in running and looking
like winning. Wasn’t to be though with Jessies Dream
beaten by a mere neck.

Still a decent payout on the place side but so so close to a monster payout
for Full members.

You can read Guy’s reasoning and logic for these two  at link below

Close To Big Cigar

As Sods law would dicate the free blog race was a bit of a dog.

Sticking to our long term value principles however we ae not going for a
short priced hot pot on the free blog today.

Another big price horse for you.

CHELTENHAM 4.40

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup (Handicap Chase)
(Amateur Riders) (CLASS 2) (5yo+ 0-140) 3m1f110y

6/1 Junior, 15/2 Galant Nuit, 10/1 Saddlers Storm
12/1 Pomme Tiepy, 14/1 Can´t Buy Time, Galaxy Rock
16/1 Faasel, 16/1 Far More Serious, 16/1 Mostly Bob
16/1 Richard´s Sundance, 18/1 Fredo, 20/1 Alderley Rover
20/1 Billie Magern, 25/1 Cornish Sett, 25/1 Khachaturian
25/1 Minella Theatre, Sheriff Hutton, 28/1 Massini Man
33/1 Burren Legend, 33/1 Dance Island, 33/1 Deal Done
33/1 Den Of Iniquity, 33/1 Teddy´s Reflection
40/1 Palypso De Creek.

* The Kim Muir is a 25f Handicap Chase for Amateurs
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* GALANT NUIT was 3rd in last years race
* I have a problem with him having 1 run this year
* I looked at every handicap chase in March at 3m +
* Those with 13 or more career starts and 1 run that year
* There were a few winners but none were aged 7 like him
* They also scored very badly with absences
* GALANT NUIT has been off 96 days as well
* There are 75 Handicap Chases at the festival at all trips
* Since 1993 that has meant 75 Festival Handicap Chases
* Horses aged 6 and 7 won 16 of these races
* None of these had just 1 or 2 runs that season
* No 6 or 7 year old won with 1-2 runs this season
* In fact there were only 3 that did it with 1-2-3 that year
* All 3 of those horses had Under 11st weight
* GALANT NUIT fails that as well
* I think he would be better on softer ground
* Only 2 horses aged 7 have won this since 1992
* Both had 5 + runs that season and ran within a month
* GALANT NUIT has just 1 run and a long break

* Older horses aged 11 or more are 0-60 in this race
* CORNISH SETT is too old after a heavy defeat last time
* FAR MORE SERIOUS has to go as an 11 year old
* Especially with a high weight and no Graded form
* Exposed horses have to be certain types
* I dont want the ones lightly raced this year
* Horses with 21 + runs in hurdles + chases won 6 races
* Those with 1-2-3 runs that year were 0-47
* FAASEL has to go exposed with 1 run this season
* RICHARD´S SUNDANCE also fails that
* CAN´T BUY TIME looks underraced now he’s exposed
* POMME TIEPY fails that and is a Mare
* I looked at this race and the Festival Handicap
* These two races at the 3m Handicaps at the festival
* I looked at exposed horses in both races
* Those with 1-2-3  runs that season were just 3-116
* None were aged 6-7-8-9 (0-45)
* RICHARD´S SUNDANCE – POMME TIEPY fail that
* CAN´T BUY TIME fail that
* All 3 had form in Grade 1 or Grade 2 before
* RICHARD´S SUNDANCE fails that as well
* CAN´T BUY TIME fails that as well
* Exposed horses with 1-2-3-4 runs this year struggled
* Those absent more than a Month were just 1-58
* None won when carrying more than 11st 1lbs
* RICHARD´S SUNDANCE fails all that and has a poor profile
* CAN´T BUY TIME – POMME TIEPY fail that as well
* BURREN LEGEND comes out badly
* Exposed and lacking Grade 1-2 form he’s weak
* MASSINI MAN is out of his depth
* Inexperienced and winning a Hunter Chase last time
* PALYPSO DE CREEK looks underraced this year to me
* Exposed and coming from hurdles he looks vulnerable
* SHERIFF HUTTON is exposed and comes from 2m 5f
* Exposed horses from 3m or shorter last time were 1-79
* All Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* No exposed horse won carrying more than 11st
* SHERIFF HUTTON also has that against him
* SHERIFF HUTTON could have problems on this track
* TEDDY´S REFLECTION is wrong from a Graded Novice
* BILLIE MAGERN is wrong from a Graded Novice
* DANCE ISLAND  is wrong from a Graded Novice
* DEN OF INIQUITY has been absent 75 days
* No horse as old as him won with that absence
* Horses aged 7 only have a 2-56 record
* None like DEAL DONE had under 5 runs that year
* Horses aged 7 from 3m 1f or shorter were 0-45
* BILLIE MAGERN fails that
* DEAL DONE fails that coming from 2m 5f
* ALDERLEY ROVER fails that as well
* GALAXY ROCK fails that as well
* FREDO fails that as well
* Horses coming from Novice Chases are 0-23 in this race
* ALDERLEY ROVER has that to overcome
* I looked at every Handicap Chase at the festival
* I looked for 7 year olds from Novice Chases
* None won without Grade 1 form before
* ALDERLEY ROVER looks wrong from a Novice Chase
* GALAXY ROCK is also 7 from a Novice Chase
* He has no form beyond a Class 2 race and looks wrong
* No 7yo with his profile has won at the festival before
* FREDO has the same problems as well
* He is 7 from a Novice race with no Graded form
* I looked at this race and the Festival Handicap
* These two races at the 3m Handicaps at the festival
* No winners of either race came from 2n 3f or shorter
* SADDLERS STORM fails that and looks wrong
* I can ignore the fact Irish Horses are 0-35 in this race
* I cant ignore some of his other problems
* SADDLERS STORM has a high weight to overcome
* No horses did that with under 4 runs this season
* With just 2 runs and up in distance he looks opposable
* MINELLA THEATRE has a poor profile
* I dont like him out of form from 2m 6f
* MOSTLY BOB fell in the Racing Post Chase last time
* The 1994 winner was well beaten in that race and won this
* He has a tough weight of 11st 8lbs
* This race has been won by higher weights
* They were all unexposed with 4 + runs that year like him
* He only has 4 Chase starts and thats a problem
* He fell at the 3rd fence last time so he’s really had just 3
* He has fallen in two of his 4 Chase starts so far
* That leaves him quite short on experience
* I feel its asking too much of him with a big weight

POSSIBLES

* JUNIOR has been very well touted for this race
* He is clearly strongly fancied and well handicapped
* JUNIOR  has 1-2-3 Runs this season
* He has Grade 1 form which is important in that regard
* The absence doesnt worry me
* There are so few decent profiles he does stand out
* I do just prefer the chance of KHACHATURIAN more

SELECTION

* KHACHATURIAN stands out to me
* KHACHATURIAN was 5th in last years race
* He was only beaten 10 lengths last year
* He led and jumped the last in second place
* No shame at all in being caught by Ballybriggs
* Last years run proved this track is fine for him
* Statistically he was dead last year
* He ws only a 7yo the weakest age
* He lacked a recent run last year
* He has that today and is now a better age
* He had to come from 2m 5f last time
* Horses of any age doing that have awful records
* He came from Novice Handicaps last year
* This year he doesn’t and has more experience
* Last year he had a crippling weight for a 7yo
* This year he is 8 and races off a 3lbs lower mark
* He may well have gone off too fast last years
* He is a bigger price this year than he was last year

Bet each way

25/1 available at s james and betfred for 4 places
or if you prefer 22/1 at Blue Sq paying 5 places.

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Posted under Major Horse Races

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