Grand National Tip 2014

Ok our tuppence worth on the Grand National for you as promised.

 

Aintree 4.15

Grand National (Staked to £10 nominal total stakes for clarity)

COLBERT STATION 50/1 £4 Win £1 Place

RAZ DE MAREE 50/1 £2 Each Way

BURTON POINT 16/1 £1 Win

 

Today is mainly about trying to get the National
winner and for reasons given later I have ended
up on a couple of outsiders. I decided against a
Full account bet. In no hurry. I can’t imagine we
can do any better today than the last two days

G r a n d N a t i o n a l

I have spent a lot of time on the race perhaps a
bit too long and I am not confident this year. My
biggest headache is that since the race became
easier and the fences smaller it is hard to know
what to do with the smaller undersized horses.

Pre the changes I’d have ruled these out with a
bit of confidence but It isn’t safe to do this now.

It’s a problem as there are several smaller types
this year. Burton Port has one of the best profiles
and is well treated but he is undersized. He had
to make my shortlist. So too did Raz De Maree a
small horse again. The modifications have only
made judging these horses harder and the race
is more a burden than a pleasure at the moment.

 

 

A i n t r e e 4.15

Crabbie4s Grand National Chase
(Handicap) (Grade 3) 4m3f110y

8/1 Teaforthree, 10/1 Monbeg Dude, 12/1 Double Seven
12/1 Long Run, 14/1 Tidal Bay, 16/1 Burton Port, 16/1 Pineau De Re
16/1 Prince De Beauchene, 16/1 Rocky Creek, 20/1 Balthazar King
20/1 Big Shu, 20/1 The Package, 20/1 Triolo D4alene, 25/1 Lion Na Bearnai
25/1 Shakalakaboomboom, 33/1 Alvarado, 33/1 Chance Du Roy
33/1 Colbert Station, 33/1 Hawkes Point, 33/1 The Rainbow Hunter
40/1 Mountainous, 40/1 Mr Moonshine, 50/1 Across The Bay
50/1 Battle Group, 50/1 Last Time D4albain, 50/1 One In A Milan
50/1 Our Father, 50/1 Quito De La Roque, 50/1 Raz De Maree
50/1 Rose Of The Moon, 50/1 Vesper Bell, 50/1 Vintage Star
50/1 Walkon, 66/1 Buckers Bridge, 66/1 Golan Way, 66/1 Hunt Ball
66/1 Kruzhlinin, 66/1 Twirling Magnet, 66/1 Wayward Prince
80/1 Swing Bill.

The Grand National has changed recently and not many
people think for the better. The Fences have been made
easier making a level playing field. There were only two
fallers in last years race. No horses fell yesterday in the
Foxhunters either. It makes ruling out horses harder and
with several small undersized horses this year we can’t
make the safe assumptions we could in past years. That
said there are still many trends that have stood up over
many years in this race and still have since modifications.

I ran my angles very quickly just to see if there was any
stand out horse and they returned me 6 I could shortlist.

BALTHAZAR KING
LION NA BEARNA
MONBEG DUDE
BURTON PORT
SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM
RAZ DE MAREE

It is only the first of several steps to trying to find the winner.

* The last 24 winners had the following runs that season
* 7 4 3 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 2 5 4 6 7 6
* Clearly having 4-5-6-7 runs this year is ideal
* I can live with 3 runs if the horse is unexposed
* If he has under 21 National Hunt runs and 9-20 chase runs
* Only won Miinnehoma 1994 with 2 runs that year
* The following horses look underraced to me
* ROCKY CREEK – WALKON – THE PACKAGE
* RAINBOW HUNTER -CHANCE DU ROY – GOLAN WAY
* ROSE OF THE MOON – ALVARADO – LAST TIME D’ALBAIN
* SWING BILL – BIG SHU

 

* It is very important to have a recent race
* The past 21 winners all ran within 8 weeks
* I do not want a horse absent more than 60 days
* The last 21 winners were absent this many days
* 35 56 35 23 21 41 32 27 48 28 20 25 42 20 24 35 23 16 35 23 35 23 25
* Look at the absences of the Runner Ups
* Horses 2nd in the National had the following absences
* 49 30 45 49 25 27 21 22 22 100 35 23 63 345 28 16 44 18 42 21 23 23 102
* 19 of the past 23 Runners Ups also ran within 7 weeks
* I am prepared to have some leeway with 60 days absence
* The following horses fail this statistic
* ROCKY CREEK – BATTLE GROUP- MOUNTAINOUS
* PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE – RAINBOW HUNTER
* VESPER BELL – ROSE OF THE MOON
* MINELLA FOR VALUE – ALVARADO

 

* Horses aged 6 and 7 have appalling records
* They haven’t won since 1940 and few even finish the race
* Horses aged 6 and 7 are too young
* The following horses fail this
* TRIOLO D’ALENE – KRUZHLININ

* Chasing Experience is of obvious importance
* The previous 22 winners had the following Chase runs
* 23 27 12 12 24 14 13 10 11 37 41 14 12 24 17 25 10 23 16 9 14 28 14
* The least Experienced Chaser was Miinnehoma in 1994
* He had 9 previous Chase runs
* There were two more that had 10 Chase starts
* Horses with Under 9 Chase runs are unlike any past winners
* I looked at the Chase runs of the last 20 Runner Ups
* 9 11 10 24 18 11 13 15 23 14 20 10 11 9 19 14 9 8 24 32 22 8
* I would be wary of any horses with under 9 Chase starts
* The following horses and fail this statistic
* ROCKY CREEK (7) OUR FATHER (6) HAWKES POINT (7)
* VESPER BELL (8) ROSE OF THE MOON (6) ONCE IN A MILAN (6)
* MINELLA FOR VALUE (8)
* We have to bear in mind the race is changing
* The 2012 4th (Cappa Blue) had just 6 chase runs
* Mely Moss was 2nd in 2000 with 5 Chase starts
* Lord Atterbury was 3rd in 2004 with 4 Chase starts
* The race has been made easier recently

 

* 22 of the last 23 had raced in Graded Class before
* The vast majority of the runner ups also did this
* The ones that did not were mainly lightly raced
* Having No Graded form is not acceptable
* The following horses and fail this statistic
* KRUZHLININ is 7 and fails it lacking any Graded form
* MINELLA FOR VALUE also lacks Graded form

* DOUBLE SEVEN fails it despite having had 27 career runs
* He has never raced in Graded Class before either
* Half the price because MCCoy rides any value has gone
* Another thing I don’t like is that he is a small horse

 

* Class is important in a Grand National Winner
* 12 of the last 13 winners won in Listed Grade or higher
* The exception was Ballabriggs (2011)
* He had won in Class 2 race but hadn’t been tested in higher
* I’d argue he should be seen as a Graded winner
* He won the 2010 Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival
* It was a Class 2 handicap but he did that with Topweight
* That was more than worthy or a Graded win
* The following horses and fail this statistic

* MR MOONSHINE – TEAFORTHREE- BIG SHU – OUR FATHER
* VINTAGE STAR – HAWKES POINT- KRUZHLININ – PINEAR DU RE
* TWIRLING MAGIC – VESPER BELL- LAST TIME D’ALBAIN
* SWING BILL – ONCE IN A MILAN – NIGHT IN MILAN
* MINELLA FOR VALUE- ROSE OF THE MOON

 

* I think we should ignore the weight statistics
* The 2012 winner won with 11st 6lbs
* The 2010 winner won with 11st 5lbs
* Red Rum won with 11st 8lbs and again with 12st
* Corbiere won with 11st 4lbs and Grittar with 11st 5lbs
* L’Escargot won with 11st 3lbs and Gay Trip with 11st 5lbs
* I wont be ruling any horse out on their weight

* HUNT BALL seems an unlikely winner to me
* He fails only minor statistics though
* Such as winning more than 6 handicap Chases
* No past winner had won more than that
* Every winner since 1970 had won over at least 3m
* HUNT BALL hasn’t so I would ignore him

* PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE has not run in 79 days
* The last 21 winners all ran within 56 days and that’s a worry
* He also has to come from a 2m 4f race which is not ideal
* No recent winner did that when as exposed as he is
* He also has to prove he will stay
* His sire hasn’t yet bred a winner over 3m 2f or more

* TEAFORTHREE was 3rd in last years race
* He carries 5lbs less weight this year
* The main stat he fails is failing to win in Listed Grade or higher
* We know 12 of the last 13 winners had done that
* Personally 3rd last year is good enough to ignore that
* He is 1 year older this year and has 1 fewer runs this season
* When Ballabriggs won he has 12 Chase runs and 3 that year
* TEAFORTHREE has 14 chase runs and 3 this season
* TEAFORTHREE has also never won a Handicap Chase
* Past winners had won the following number of handicaps
* 3 3 3 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 6 0 4 4 5 4 3 3 1 1 2
* Only Bindaree won with 0 Handicap Chase wins
* TEAFORTHREE has more positives than negatives
* I don’t like his price though
* I don’t think a prep run in the Gold Cup helps him much either

* ACROSS THE BAY unseated rider last time
* Not the best preparation for a race like this
* He was 14th last year beaten 87 lengths in this race
* He has only finished in 10 of his 15 Chase runs
* I don’t like his lack of form in big field Handicap chases
* Look at his record in Handicap Chases with 11 + runners
* UR 8 14 7 PU PU PU UR
* His Sire’s won bred a winner over further than 3m 5f yet
* Too many doubts given a poor run in last years race

* BALTHAZAR KING may not get this distance by King’s Theatre
* I don’t want a Cross Country horse much as Silver Birch did it
* Won at Cheltenham I don’t like him enough here
* He was thrashed in this last year
* His trainer said after the race he did not get the trip
* Look at his sire King’s Theatre
* His runners in Listed and Graded races
* When running over 3m 2f they are 0-24
* He has winners in 3m 7f Cross Country races (Class 2)

* LONG RUN is a top class horse in regression
* After year of Grade 1 races this is his first handicap chase
* Past winners had ran in the following Handicap Chases
* 17 9 7 5 21 8 8 6 6 24 33 7 12 14 12 15 7 16 7 4 7
* LONG RUN has no experience in this kind of race
* He is Sired by Cadoudal who’s runners at 4m + are 0-16
* All 16 lost and just 1 managed to place over 4m +
* LONG RUN has ran 14 times since 2011
* His Worse 4 Racing Post Ratings were his last 4 races
* That shows regression and he lacks big field experience
* His Class may get him through but there are holes in his profile

* MONBEG DUDE has a reasonable profile
* Nothing statistical worries me about his chance
* Far from convinced his jumping is good enough
* He may want the ground to be softer as well
* You would also worry if a Flat track suited him
* At 14/1 he does not tempt me

* LION NA BEARNAI – I don’t really want a 12yo if I can help it
* Not sure he will stay this far either
* I did a search for all Graded Handicap Chases
* In recent years horses aged 12 or more are 1-174 in these
* LION NA BEARNAI fails that and looks wrong

* TIDAL BAY is 13 and has topweight
* The last winner aged 13 was back in 1923
* He certainly has the class and he may well win
* I just can’t live with a 13yo Topweight in the race
* Not given that 1-173 statistic that Lion Na Bearnai also fails

* BUCKERS BRIDGE has never won beyond 2m 4f
* I don’t think he will have the stamina or substance
* WAYWARD PRINCE probably wont cope in this race
* Not given the form he has shown recently
* QUITO DE LA ROQUE has to prove he will stay
* His Sire hasn’t bred a winner beyond 3m 1f yet
* He is a Mudlark without a turn of foot
* He may not find ideal conditions
* The last 21 winners had ran in at least 4 Handicap Chases
* QUITO DE LA ROQUE has only ran in one
* He hasn’t shown enough recently to risk him

* MOUNTAINOUS won the Welsh National
* He has 9 Chase starts which is borderline
* He has a longer absence than any past winner
* I’d prefer a more recent run and softer ground

* SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM may not have achieved fitness
* His recent form also suggests he is not fit enough yet
* Sometimes you have to look beyond these things
* This is a horse I would keep on side around 40/1
* I like his age and breeding
* May well have gone off to fast at Cheltenham
* Very nearly made the shortlist

 

S h o r t l i s t

* RAZ DE MAREE gets through all my main angles
* Biggest concern is he in smaller than ideal
* Another horse giving us a dilemma now the fences are easier
* He has won a Munster National easily albeit off a low weight
* He is riSky but his profile and price do offer something

 

* BURTON POINT has a very solid profile
* One of the strongest in the race and very attractive
* He is handicapped to win if he can return to his best
* My only worry with him is his size and the big field
* He is a small undersized horse and I don’t like that
* He won over hurdles in a 15 runner race
* He led all the way that day avoiding any traffic
* He was 2nd in a Hennessy in a big field which will reassure some
* He had a featherweight that day and was at his peak
* He has clearly been laid out for the race
* Big field and Aintree fences will be his main worry
* I find it hard to bet a small undersized horse in a big field

 

* COLBERT STATION – I have backed him at 75/1
* He passes all my “Must have” statistics
* At that price I’d expect some problems though
* Tony MCCoy has rejected him
* Not worried. Mc Coy doesn’t think statistically
* He chose wrong twice at Cheltenham in big races
* He has chosen a small horse without any Graded form
* His reasons for doing this were simply ridiculous
* COLBERT STATION Fell in last years race
* I would think he did considering he had just 5 Chase starts
* He had a longer absence than the previous 21 winners as well
* He shouldn’t really have run
* This is a good horse though
* He has a Racing Post Rating of 159
* He has won a 22 runner Chase worth 89k very easily before
* He now has 9 Chase starts which is my bare minimum
* I appreciate that’s not many but he is a 75/1 chance
* He was going very well before falling at the 15th last year
* Clearly his jumping is a worry
* COLBERT STATION has not finished in 2 of his last 3 Chases
* That worries me but last years winner fell several times before
* Since the Fences were made easier it’s less of a problem
* I can live with that considering he is a 75/1 chance on Betfair
* Trained by Ted Walsh he has several recent excuses
* He has probably been trained for this race all season
* He is too smart to right off
* His experience in last years race shouldn’t be considered
* I think it has been and that’s why he is such a big price
* Don’t forget he was a 12/1 chance last year with more weight
* I also like he is a 10 year old as this statistic shows

This is an interesting statistic. Older horses dominated recently.

2010 – The 1st 2nd 3rd 5th 6th 7th 8th were aged 10 or more

2011 – The 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th were aged 10 or more

2012 – The 1st 4th 5th 6th 7th were aged 10 or more

2013 – The 1st 2nd 4th 5th 6th were aged 10 or more

 

Selection

COLBERT STATION 50/1 £4 Win £1 Place

RAZ DE MAREE 50/1 £2 Each Way

BURTON POINT 16/1 £1 Win

 

Best Wishes

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on April 5, 2014

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