The Saturday before the big festival at York and that means
Great St Wilfrid day at Ripon.
This year it will be run on soft ground like most of the races today.

I have tried to sort out the Great St Wilfrid a fascinating race today.
It’s a  tough sprint so wont be easy  to get right but as the major race today
I know many of you want an opinion on it.

RIPON 3.30

William Hill Great St Wilfrid (Heritage Handicap)
(CLASS 2) (3yo+) 6f

3/1 Tajneed,  8/1 Rileyskeepingfaith 8/1 Tiddliwinks
12/1 Favourite Girl 12/1 Hitchens, 14/1 Midnight Martini
14/1 Signor Peltro  16/1 Advanced, 16/1 Johannes
16/1 Knot In Wood 16/1 Lowdown, 16/1 Pavershooz
16/1 Quest For Success 20/1 Damika, 20/1 Fullandby
25/1 Novellen Lad 40/1 Everymanforhimself.

* The Great St Wilfred is a 0-105 handicap over 6f
* Ripon has had 18 renewals of this race
* There are 57 similar Class 2 handicaps in August
* Horses beaten 10 lengths or more last time were 0-67
* EVERYMANFORHIMSELF fails that
* Horses beaten 6 lengths or more are interesting
* I looked at 57 similar handicaps in August
* Horses beaten 6 + lengths had a poor 4-365 record
* Those with 1-2-3-4 runs that year doing that were 0-111
* JOHANNES – KNOT IN WOOD fail that
* HITCHENS -NOVELLEN LAD  also fail that
* Those beaten that far over 7f or more last time were 0-61
* SIGNOR PELTRO fails that
* Horses beaten 6 lengths or more aged 3 are 0-37
* LOWDOWN fails that
* Unexposed horses beaten 6 + lengths last time are 1-119
* LOWDOWN fails that
* Horses from 5f races has a 3-74 record
* None managed without a very recent run
* Horses from 5f without a run in 2 weeks were 0-28
* FAVOURITE GIRL fails that
* No filly came from a 5f like her anyway
* In 56 other races fillies from 5f races were 0-31
* PAVERSHOOZ also fails that
* In 56 other races horses from 5f needed a recent run
* Those absent more than 2 weeks were 2-109
* Those with 13 or more runs were 0-92
* PAVERSHOOZ fails that
* Exposed horses won 9 of the 18 renewals
* Those exposed and aged 5 were 0-76
* PAVERSHOOZ -NOVELLEN LAD fail that
* HITCHENS is also an exposed 5yo (0-76)
* QUEST FOR SUCCESS is an exposed 5yo
* I see him having the worst draw as well
* Those exposed and carrying 8st 11lbs or less were 1-125
* FULLANDBY -NOVELLEN LAD –  PAVERSHOOZ fail that
* Exposed horses aged 8 or more won 1 renewal
* That horse had past Group form and 9 + runs this season
* He also ran within 7 days
* FULLANDBY looks underaced for an 8yo
* KNOT IN WOOD looks underaced for an 8yo
* I looked at 56 similar handicaps
* Exposed horses aged 8 were 3-101
* Those with under 9 runs that season were 0-65
* That reinforces negatives for FULLANDBY – KNOT IN WOOD
* Exposed horses from 6f handicaps were 5-153 in this race
* None of these were aged 4 (0-25) or 5 (0-46)
* RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH fails that aged 4
* No past winner came from an 8f race
* None did it in any of the 56 other races
* SIGNOR PELTRO fails that
* 3 year olds won 2 races but none were Male
* 3yo Males are 0-28 in this race
* LOWDOWN fails that
* I looked at 3yo males in 56 other races
* They had a 1-93 record
* Those 3yo Males with 9 + runs were 0-64
* LOWDOWN looks opposable on that front
* 3 year olds with under 13 runs were 0-25 in this race
* MIDNIGHT MARTINI fails that
* In 56 other races 3yo fillies with under 13 runs were 1-17
* That winner was slightly different coming from a 3yo handicap
* I wouldnt entirely rule her out though
* Horses aged 7 or more had a 3-73 record
* Those with under 9 runs that year were 0-33
* I looked at 56 similar races for 7 year olds
* Horses aged 7 and older were 7-213
* Those with under 9 runs that year were 2-196
* None had 1-2-3-4 runs that season
* JOHANNES fails that and has just 4 runs
* ADVANCED  fails that and has just 4 runs
* TAJNEED  fails that and has just 4 runs

SHORTLIST

* MIDNIGHT MARTINI is just shortlistable
* DAMIKA is 7 years old but shortlistable
* He has a recent run and is fit enough with backclass
* TIDDLIWINKS is an unexposed 4 year olds
* 4 year olds with 13-20 runs and a run in 2 weeks did well
* Those beaten under 3 lengths were 3-8
* Those from 6f handicaps are 2-6
* These 3 horses all have that profile
* TIDDLIWINKS has that profile

THE DRAW

* Since 2006 Ripon has 23 of these races with 13 + runners
* The recent winners came from these stalls
* 6 13 15 10 15 11 11 14 11 10 5 11 12 22 15 4 3 12 6 15
* Horses draw 1-2 had a 0-46 record
* Horses drawn 16 or more had a 1-55 record
* That clearly shows a middle draw is best

SELECTION

Split Stake Bet

DAMIKA 20/1 looks overpriced and underestimated
( now best priced 18/1 canbet VC bet365 )

TIDDLIWINKS 10/1  bet365 ladbrokes skybet

For best current odds see
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-08-14/ripon/15-30/betting/

I think Tiddliwinks  has the outstanding profile. He made massive
improvement on the sand a year ago which has left him
well handicapped on Grass. He hasnt won yet on turf but
I dont see that as important as his last 2 runs show there
is serious ability on Grass. His last 3 runs were interesting.
He wont have been fit at York in July.
He did nothing at all wrong at York in the Skybet Dash when 4th
when he still might have needed the run.
Last time at Goodwood he had a horrible draw and still managed a creditable 4th.
The ground is an issue as he is not proven on soft ground but he has not
shown he doesnt handle it.
His Dam won on soft and placed on Heavy.
His father won on softer ground and has bred many that have done as well.
I’d risk it as I dont see a better profile in this race.

Posted under Major Horse Races