I have looked at most of the fancied horses
with a bit more work to do on some of the others.

Today a full set of statistics for this race

Horses aged 11 or more should be opposed
The last ones to win were in 1957 and 1967
Horses aged 10 should also be avoided
The last winner aged 10 was back in 1981
Diamond Edge was the only 10yo winner in 43 years.
Since 1988 horses aged 10 or more are 0-65 in this race

Horses aged 9 are 3-80 since 1992
Horses aged 9 won just 3 of the last 24 renewals
They had 17 7 15 National Hunt runs
They had 12 7 8 Chase runs
Two ran that season having 7 and 8 Chase starts
The other (Denman) was a rare 9yo seasonal debutant
Seasonal debutants aged 9 or more are 1-45
They won from official ratings of 174 139 145

Horses aged 8 are 4-75 since 1992
They had all had a race that season
Horses aged 8 first time out are 0-22 since 1992
The 4 winners aged 8 had 20 18 14 17 National Hunt runs
The 4 winners aged 8 had 14 16 11 13 Chase runs
They won from official ratings of 146 149 162 148

Horses aged 7 have a 11-111 record since 1992
The 10 winners had 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 runs this season
The 10 winners had 16 10 12 23 10 11 18 16 12 5 29 National Hunt runs
The 10 winners had 7 4 3 23 5 4 6 5 6 5 13 previous chase runs
They won from the following official ratings
151 160 156 150 161 151 145 137 136 142 149
The Perfect profile is a lightly raced 7yo debutant
There were 5 seasonal debutant winners aged 7
They all had Grade 1 form before
They had 4 3 5 4 6 previous Chase starts
They won this race in 2001 2005 2007 2010 2012

Horses aged 6 have a 5-49 record since 1992
Horses aged 6 and 7 are the ideal age for the race
The 5 winners aged 6 had 1 0 1 2 1 runs this season
Seasonal debutant 6 year olds were 1-16 in recent years
That winner (State Of Play) had just 4 Chase starts
Horses aged 6 are best with a recent run
They are best with under 8 Chase runs and winning last time
The 5 winners aged 6 had 14 12 6 6 16 National Hunt runs
The 5 winners aged 6 had 11 4 6 4 7 previous chase runs
The 5 winners aged 6 had official ratings of 147 145 142 140 135
One winner age 6 came from a Novice Chase (1993)
The following is an excellent profile
Male horses aged 6
Winning last time out
Running within 18 days
Having 8 or fewer Chase starts
3 horses had this profile
They finished W W W winning in 1994 2003 2004

Recent winners had the following National Hunt runs
16-16-14-10-20-12-16-23-10-12-11-6-6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16
Horses with 6-18 National Hunt runs do best
The last few winners had the following Chase races
7-11-4-14-3-12-23-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
12 of the last 19 winners had between 3-7 Chase starts
The winners had the following runs in Handicaps
0-8-0-5-0-21-0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8
Horses with 0-1 Handicap runs do very well
Horses that were 1st-2nd last time score well
18 of the last 23 winners were 1st or 2nd last time
Three of the five that were not finished 3rd
Second-season chasers are the most interesting
They won 11 of the last 16 renewals
18 of the last 22 winners had form in Grade 1-2 before
There were only 4 horses that did not
3 of these had Under 9 career starts
These 3 had 4 5 7 Chase Starts
Horses with No Grade 1-2 form should be lightly raced
I looked at horses that had raced that season
None of the winners came from a Non Handicap Graded race
No Seasonal debutant won without Grade 1 form
Few Hennessey winners have Headgear
No past winner came from a Hurdles race
No past winner came from a Grade 2 Chase first time out
I’d be wary of horses from the Paddy Power Gold Cup
There is precious little recovery time from a hard race
The double has been done by Celestial Gold (2004)
The previous winner to do that was in 1980
It has been done but it is not ideal as a trial race

Early Conclusions

CONEYGREE is now a Non Runner
This means just a maximum of 20 can take part
It means it is quite a poor renewal this year
None of the 1-2-3-4 in last seasons RSA take place

Saphir Du Rheu – Hoping to find a better option
Smad Place – Stamina and a big world are worries
Bobs Worth – I can’t justify a 10 year old
The Druids Nephew – Stamina might beat him
The Young Master – Mild positive but a stamina issue
If In Doubt – Mild positive
Houblon Des Obeaux – Doesn’t offer enough
Valseur Lido – Can’t be discounted just yet
Theatre Guide – 25/1 + is value in a mixed profile

More detail on a few

VALSEUR LIDO

This is a 6yo seasonal debutant
Seasonal debutant 6 year olds were 1-16 in recent years
That winner (State Of Play) had just 4 Chase starts
With 6 Chase starts I’d see him as a positive
He is a Second-season chaser which helps
This is a weak renewal as well
Much depends on his preparation
Is this a Genuine target or has he other plans
He is going to be second top weight
That would scare me off first time out
I also question his stamina as well

THEATRE GUIDE was 3rd in this 2 years ago
He has positives and negatives
But at the price he does look good value
In terms of his negatives he is a bit exposed
Has a few more runs than you would prefer
He is also going to fail my breeding statistics as well
There will come a time soon that his sire wins one of these
There some positives though
8 year olds need recent runs and he has that
He is strangely cost to the other 8yo winners
The 4 winners aged 8 had 20 18 14 17 National Hunt runs
THEATRE GUIDE has 21 National Hunt runs
The 4 winners aged 8 had 14 16 11 13 Chase runs
THEATRE GUIDE has 15 Chase runs
They won from official ratings of 146 149 162 148
THEATRE GUIDE has an official mark of 139
The weights going up suit him
When he was 3rd in this race in 2013 he had 10st 13lbs
He will be carrying much less weight this year