Imperial Cup

Just a quick copy of Guy’s analysis
for last Saturday’s Imperial Cup.

Some of the stats, angles and thought
train may be of use to you for next year’s running
if you copy and save or bookmark.

Call Me Lord was beaten by a mere neck.
Frustratingly close to a proper win and not just place money.

If seeking a general wider point of learning from the below
it could perhaps be to note Guy’s willingness to slightly buck
elements of trend research. In this particular instance it was
the weight issue.

Some will use trend research too brutally at times.
A stat they will use as a reason not to think any deeper.

For Guy they are often more so a starting point.
Most definitely a useful tool in the armoury
but never to be trusted blindly.
More so they are a foundation upon
which extra thought is then layered.


Saturdays Imperial Cup

Each Way
1/4 Odds 1,2,3,4

Scenario 1

Call Me Lord has an impossible weight
In a race where highweights never win
As a 5yo on bad ground with Topweight
It is probably asking far too much of him
Giving weight to older talented horses

Scenario 2

Call Me Lord is comfortably the class horse
He should overcome his large weight
The frame of the weights favours him
He’s a 152 rated horse facing just a 0-140
He has a significant class advantage
And he should at least make the 1-2-3-4

Obviously we are hoping it’s Scenario 2

SANDOWN 2.25 – Imperial Cup

9/2 Whatswrongwithyou, 6/1 Le Patriote, 13/2 Call Me Lord,
8/1 Silver Streak, 8/1 Friday Night Light, 12/1 Octagon,
12/1 Huntsman Son, 14/1 Master Of Irony, 14/1 Fidux,
14/1 Highway One O One, 16/1 Mr Antolini, 20/1 Gassin Golf,
20/1 Castafiore, 25/1 Man Of Plenty, 25/1 Birch Hill,
25/1 Chti Balko, 25/1 Shanroe Saint
Graded Handicap Hurdle over 2 miles

This traditionally goes to lightweights
But this year may well be different

CALL ME LORD has topweight of 11st 12lbs
He fails my weight statistics because of this
But I have to see him as the class horse

CALL ME LORD is rated 152
He only faces a 0-140 class field
Before he ran in the Kingswell Hurdle
He was 25/1 to win the Champion Hurdle

Topweight or not
He surely is better than 0-140 Grade
I am asking myself that around 7/1
With 4 places available with 17 runners
Can we not expect him to at least place ?

The ideal profile in this race
A Horse aged 4-5-6
With under 10 hurdle runs
And under 11st 3lbs weight
Most past winners had this profile

Horses aged 7 or more
Have a 3-138 record since 2001
All 3 winners of these older
Had 10st 5lbs or less
Horses aged 7 or older
Who carry 10st 6lbs or more
Have a miserable 0-92 record in this  

Horses failing these angles
GASSIN GOLF is 9 with 25 hurdle runs
MAN OF PLENTY is 9 with 21 hurdle runs
MR ANTOLINI is an 8yo with 15 hurdle runs
That is not the kind of horse that won this

OCTAGON is an 8yo older than ideal
You can argue he has a light weight
And is not too exposed over hurdles
But 74 days off could be a problem
Horses aged 7 or more like him
Absent more than 6 weeks were 0-41

HUNTSMAN SON is an 8 year old
We know horses aged 7 or more
Have a 0-92 record with 10st 6lbs +
HUNTSMAN SON fails this statistic
Nicky Henderson has 2 huge runners
CALL ME LORD the class horse
WHATSWRONGWITHYOU could easily win
He does have a few little profile problems
Horses aged 7 + with 10st 6lbs or more
Have a miserable 0-92 record in this race
WHATSWRONGWITHYOU fails this angle
He is a 7 year old with 10st 13lbs
He only has 3 hurdle starts as well
Past winners had the following hurdle starts
4 5 4 4 19 8 6 5 3 3 9
The 2008 -2009 winners had 3 hurdle runs
They were younger horses though
One came from a Class 2 handicap hurdle
They other was a Group horse in France
WHATSWRONGWITHYOU is not a perfect fit
Horses from Novice or Maiden Hurdles
Have won a few races in the dim and distant
But since 2009 the last 26 have been beaten
WHATSWRONGWITHYOU has this problem
Not sure he is that well treated off 139
His Best Racing Post Rating is just 133
He’s Sired by a sprinter on the flat
Who has a stamina index of only 6.5 furlongs
I prefer the other Henderson runner

I am avoiding horses with light season
Look at the recent winners of this race
They had the following runs that season   
8 5 8 4 8 3 6 6 3 3 8
I’d demand at least 3 runs this year
BIRCH HILL is an 8yo
He looks underraced this year

SILVER STREAK could be as well
He is a 5 year old
He unseated rider at the 2nd last time
That means he has just 2 full races this year
We know all past winners had 3 or more
That could well cost him in the closing stages
SILVER STREAK fails another serious angle
Go back as far as 2001
Horses from Handicap Hurdles
9 or more previous hurdle runs
Have a 0-110 record in this race
SILVER STREAK fails this 0-110 record
FIDUX is a 5 year old
He looks a bit too exposed to me
Horses aged 5 have a 4-55 record
These had 4 5 8 4 hurdle starts
FIDUX has 10 hurdle runs
Not to mention 24 career starts as well
SHANROE SAINT is still a maiden
He lacks backclass and looks outclassed
CASTAFIORE is a 5 year old
He won last time and is up 10lbs
Probably too exposed to overcome that
CHTI BALKO is a 6yo
Has plenty of weight with 9 hurdle runs

MASTER OF IRONY has 98 days off
That’s longer than every  past winner
With 20 lifetime starts he is quite exposed

HIGHWAY ONE O ONE is absent 74 days  
12 of the last 13 winners
Ran in the previous 55 days
Longest absent winner was 92 days
His absence is not helpful
But his numbers are progressive
He is lightly raced so respected


FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHT has a decent profile
Lightly raced 5 year old lightweight
LE PATRIOTE won last time out
Lots to like as an improving 6yo
Career best Racing Post Rating last time

CALL ME LORD has 11st 12lbs
So far hasn’t been a race for high weights
Last years winner had 11st 2lbs
The previous 12 had 11st or less  

Horses with 11st or more are 1-85
Horses with 11st 3lbs or more are 0-50

CALL ME LORD has a very tough weight
In his favour he is the class horse
Rated 152 He only takes on a 0-140 field
As explained earlier I do like that angle
Look at his win here in April 2017
It was the last day of the 2017 season
CALL ME LORD had topweight
He had the second longest absence
He won the Juvenile Handicap easily
CALL ME LORD has a W W track record
He won again here in January
That was just as good a race as this
He was 13/8 favourite in the Kingswell Hurdle
That was a strangely run race
He was racing on the worst ground that day
The horses beating him raced apart from him
I think he should be capable of taking this



£4 Each Way

1/4 Odds 1,2,3,4

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 12, 2018

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