Lincoln Analysis

Last week I posted up here some advance stat work for the Lincoln at Doncaster.

One of Guy’s mantras here would be

 

“It’s not the stats that are important.

It’s the interpratation of the stats that is important”

 

Below for you is how Guy himself interpreted things last Saturday.

He did so very well as you can see with main selection Bravery

going on to win the race.  The market did not fancy Bravery much.

He drifted to 20/1 SP and Betfair paid a whopping 34.67 in the win market.

==================================================

 

DONCASTER 3.35

4/1 Yuften, 6/1 Donncha, 10/1 Top Notch Tonto
12/1 Bravery, 14/1 Battle Of Marathon, Dolphin Vista
Oh This Is Us, 16/1 Third Time Lucky, Zhui Feng
20/1 Gabrial, Instant Attraction, You’re Fired
25/1 Eddystone Rock, Heaven’s Guest
Lucy The Painter, George Cinq, Highland Colori
Master Carpenter, Steel Train, Withernsea
40/1 Dream Walker, Emell.

The Lincoln
I start off here with not much interest
Racing Software can’t be trusted in this race
One of the annual races to ignore software
Just going to have a go and see what happens

I am ignoring the horses aged 7 or more
The Draw could be a factor here
Last years winner came from Stall 22
That put a bit of a spanner in the works

Go back to 2001
Doncaster have had 152 races over 8f
Horses drawn 17 or higher have a 1-64 record
That winner was last year
But he came up the middle of the track
I’d be very wary of extreme low and high draw

DONNCHA looks too riSky drawn 21
When he has a breeding doubt as well
His sires runners over a Mile or more
Have a 0-19 record in Class 3 or higher

The issue with “recent runs” is complicated
Especially with horses aged 5 or more
Not going to try and dissect this issue
But I have problems with some older types
Who have some kind of recent runs

YUFTEN for example has an unsafe profile
As a 6yo coming from a 7f Listed race this year
THIRD TIME LUCKY has 3 runs in 2017
He has Stall 1 though which can’t help
He has a 7lbs claimer who has never ridden him
Never raced here before and rode in just 9 races
5lbs & 7lbs claimers are 0-61 in this and Spring mile
YOUR FIRED has a recent run but over 10f
WITHERNSEA maybe should be shortlisted
But a Mile first time worried me for him
BATTLE OF MARATHON was 3rd last year
But he had 3 warm up races last year
This year he is a seasonal debutant
He also has more weight and no runs since July
No horse has won the Lincoln absent that long

Shortlist

BRAVERY 16/1 – Drawn 20 perhaps a bit high
DOLPHIN VISTA 14/1 not ruled out
STEEL TRAIN 28/1 – 3 runs this year want him onside
OH THIS IS US 12/1 – 2 Meydan runs helpful

Selection

£2 Each Way BRAVERY 16/1

£2 Each Way DOLPHIN VISTA 14/1

£1 Win Bet OH THIS IS US 12/1

£1 Win Bet STEEL TRAIN 28/1

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on April 6, 2017

Tags: ,

Leave a Comment

You must be logged in to post a comment.

More Blog Post