NEWBURY 3.05

Totesport.com Lockinge Stakes (Group 1)
(CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m

5/6 Paco Boy, 100/30 Zacinto, 14/1 Lord Shanakill
14/1 Ouqba, 14/1 Pipedreamer, 14/1 The Cheka
25/1 Stimulation, 40/1 Prince Of Dance, 66/1 Kargali.

It is Lockinge day at Newbury. Purely on profiles I am
going to oppose the odds on favourite with ZACINTO
in this race. Not sure how realistic that is and he would
not appeal as an account bet with a long absence but it
is interesting that since this race was awarded Group 1
status 15 years ago None of the winners were similar to
the odds on Paco Boy yet an incredible 8 of the 15 that
won were very similar to ZACINTO so he’s a decent bet

The Lockinge Stakes has an odds on favourite this year in
last years 4th PACO BOY. Like many I was impressed with
his win in the Sandown Mile. In 2009 PACO BOY won the
Sandown Mile and I opposed him in this race last year as
statistically there was a question mark. Horses that have
run this season have won 3 of the 15 Lockinge’s and they
all ran in the Sandown Mile as PACO BOY has done. The
fact remains that horses winning at Sandown and coming
to this race have a 0-26 record. That has to be a concern
as it beat him last year. It was the horses that Placed last
time at Sandown that won this race like THE CHEKA but
as he is lighter raced than any similar horse and that does
worry me. Given he is odds on and fails a big trend I think
it is worth giving ZACINTO a chance to win this race.

* Horses aged 4 first time out
* Between 4 and 12 career runs
* Previous Grade 1 form
* At least 3 Career wins
* Horses with that profile have a 8-16 record
* Its a better record than it looks
* 5 of the losers were beaten by the same type of horse
* ZACINTO has that profile and looks interesting
* Given the frame of the race I would be with him e/w
* ZACINTO each way is the suggestion.

Best current odds 7/2 bet365 stanjames

For all Odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-05-15/newbury/15-05/betting/

Best Wishes

Guy

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