Moet & Chandon International Stakes Handicap

Moet & Chandon International Stakes Handicap

This is one race Guy has been looking at over the past few days
in his Future Betting Angles sub section for Full Members.

These are his comments as made over the past few days.
The time line of things may be semi typical here.
Note how certain aspects such as research into many years
history of the race ( or perhaps of races of similar characteristic )
can be researched early on.

Other things are best left to later on.
Final declarations and draw for example
are usually only known shortly before race day.

This race below Guy has brought up to provisional selection stage.
More often than not final selections or advised bets if any
will be made on race day morning. It did not happen in this race
but sometimes the early work will highlight something stand out enough
to merit the extra risk associated with an ante post bet.
Morning of race however is much more so par for the course
for betting decissions.

For those of you with an interest in assessing your own races
perhaps one take away concept may be the idea of trying to get
ahead of the curve advance research wise.

Major races with long term history are a bit easier for this.
But bread and butter daily racing as well the core thinking can be applied to.
eg Research Thursday racing on Wednesday.
Final touches and bets if any then on Thursday morning.
After than you start to prepare for Friday racing etc.

Such “Be Prepared” thinking is hardly rocket science style theory.
Is it not sort of obvious that a punter with homework done
before race day will have a bit of edge over the punter
who tries to cram all research and thinking into a short period of pressured time?

Fingers crossed at least one reader will have a lightbulb flash above their head
and change their old ways for a new improved way.

 

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From message of Wed 24th July

Saturday Ascot 3.00

Moet & Chandon International Stakes Handicap

10/1 Kynren 10/1 Ripp Orf 10/1 Land of Legends
12/1 Mubhij 12/1 Spanish City 12/1 Raising Sand
16/1 Flaming Spear 16/1 Makzeem 16/1 Fanaar
20/1 Burnt Sugar 16/1 Vale of Kent 16/1 Blue Mist
16/1 Librisa Breeze 20/1 Lush Life 20/1 Firmament
20/1 Kaeso 20/1 Admirality 20/1 Diocles of Rome
20/1 Raydiance 20/1 Hey Jonesy 25/1 Maries Diamond
25/1 Arbalet 25/1 Cold Stare 25/1 Summerghand
25/1 Kimifive 25/1 Wise Counsel 25/1 Blown By Wind
25/1 Alemaratalyoum 25/1 Island of Life 25/1 Lake Volta
33/1 Documenting 33/1 Hajjam 33/1 Another Batt
33/1 Aces 33/1 Good Effort 33/1 Intisaab 33/1 Jacks Point
33/1 Love Dreams 33/1 Presidential 33/1Straight Right
33/1 Zhui Feng 40/1 Reputation 40/1Tommy Taylor
40/1 Shady McCoy 50/1 Larchmont Lad 50/1 Zap
50/1 Whinmoor 50/1 Markazi 50/1 Larchmont Lad
66/1 Reeves

Top class 7f handicap

Last previewed this race in 2014
My statistics since strengthened
Enough angles to cover this race

Age

Horses aged 6 or more
Have a horrible 1-124 record
The only winner was last year
A horse in red hot form
Who won the best trial race

Horses aged 3 struggled
They have a 1-47 record since 2000
All 28 have failed since then

Weight

Horses with 9st 3lbs or more
Have a worrying 1-61 record
Only 2008 winner had a big weight

Absence

Longest absent winner 38 days
Those absent longer were 0-46
Longer than 6 weeks a problem

The last 10 renewals since 2009
9 of them ran within 3 weeks
Horses absent longer were 1-98

Jockeys

5lbs- 7lbs Claiming jockeys
Have a 0-35 record in the race

Recent runs

Horses with under 3 runs
In the previous 12 weeks
Have a 1-73 record since 2003
Those with 9 or more runs 0-49

Previous race

Horses from Listed or Group races
Have a 0-53 record since 2001
No horse won from Class 4 or lower

Horses coming from 6f of shorter
Have a 1-71 record since 2003

Best trial race the Bunbury Cup
6 past winners came from there
Including 3 of the last 4 winners
No horse won after a heavy defeat
Those beaten over 15 lengths 0-27

Ideal Profile

Male horse
Aged 4 of 5
Running within 6 weeks
Coming from 7f or 8f
9st 2lbs or less
Not ridden by 5lbs-7lbs claimer
At least 3 runs since late April
If the horse has 9 or more runs
Coming from Class 2-3 races
Not beaten more than 15 lengths
Consider it an added bonus
If coming from the Bunbury Cup

Will be coming back to this race

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From message of Thur 25th July

Saturday Ascot 3.00

Moet & Chandon International Stakes Handicap

Sent some statistics yesterday

Betfair have no market on the race

ARBALET was backed yesterday
Because he was tipped in the Press
Fails my angles from a Listed race
Horses from Pattern races
Have a 0-53 record since 2001

Class 2 Handicaps in July
Run over any and every distance
Horses aged 4
With 10 or more career starts
Coming from a pattern race
Have a 0-51 record since 2001
ARBALET fails this as well

KYNREN is a consistent sort
Not running in the Bunbury Cup
Could hurt his chance in this race
He has raced just once in 77 days
Past winners had 3 runs in that time

LAND OF LEGENDS is a 3yo
This age group are 1-47 since 2000
WISE COUNSEL has the same problem
FANAAR also has the same problem

RASING SAND is a 7 year old
In a race horses older than 5 struggle
FLAMING SPEAR fails age statistics
Not to mention his serious absence

SPANISH CITY is older than ideal
Career best win came off a rating of 88
Today whilst his rating of 96 is tough
His numbers suggest he can win off that
He also comes from the best trial race
But he will require a career best to win

MAKZEEM is older than almost all winners
But a recent win last Saturday could help
If he wins that could be the reason why
But 3 career best runs were on good-soft

Ideal Profile

Male horse
Aged 4 of 5
Running within 6 weeks
Coming from 7f or 8f
9st 2lbs or less
Not ridden by 5lbs-7lbs claimer
At least 3 runs since late April
If the horse has 9 or more runs
Coming from Class 2-3 races
Not beaten more than 15 lengths
Consider it an added bonus
If coming from the Bunbury Cup

Applying my statistics

The following horses pass them

10/1 Ripp Orf – 12/1 Mubhij – 16/1 Vale of Kent
20/1 Lush Life – 20/1 Kaeso – 20/1 Diocles of Rome
20/1 Raydiance – 25/1 Kimifive – 25/1 Alemaratalyoum
33/1 Hajjam – 33/1 Love Dreams – 40/1Tommy Taylor
50/1 Zap – 50/1 Larchmont Lad

Not all of these will run
Some of the outsiders won’t get in

Also need to wait for the Draw

Recent renewals
Show the 1st 2nd 3rd home
Had the following draws

2018 – 11 18 16
2017 – 14 26 17 (G-Soft)
2016 – 14 22 2
2015 – 2 18 6 (Soft)
2014 – 15 3 19
2013 – 29 10 5
2012 – 22 18 23
2011 – 24 17 19 (G-Soft)

Draw is not easy to read
I’d be wary about very low numbers

Also worth bearing in mind
The best trial race for this
The Bunbury Cup at Newmarket

The shortlisted horses
Coming from this race are these

RIPP ORF
VALE OF KENT
ALEMARATALYOUM
HAJJAM
ZAP

To be concluded
Once more evidence is known
Draw and Declarations out today

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From message of Friday 26th July

Saturday Ascot 3.00

Moet & Chandon International Stakes Handicap

Ripp Orf 8/1 Arbalet 10/1 Vale Of Kent 10/1
Land Of Legends 11/1 Raising Sand 12/1 Spanish City 12/1
Lake Volta 16/1 Mubhij 16/1 Blue Mist 16/1 Kaeso 16/1
Makzeem 18/1 Hey Jonesy 20/1 Burnt Sugar 20/1
Lush Life 20/1 Fanaar 20/1 Diocles Of Rome 20/1 Admirality 22/1
Firmament 25/1 Good Effort 25/1 Island Of Life 25/1
Intisaab 33/1 Another Batt 33/1 Documenting 33/1
Alemaratalyoum 33/1 Kimifive 33/1 Summerghand 40/1
Reputation 40/1 Zap 40/1 Larchmont Lad 66/1

Declarations are through

29 horses run

KYNREN has not been declared
WISE COUNSEL has missed out

MAKZEEM is running
Was not overkeen on his draw in 3
Has a weight outside the ideal range

HEY JONESY has drawn stall 28
RIPP ORF the favourite stall 26
Neither draw guaranteed to help

VALE OF KENT has 9st 5lbs
Thats a bit higher than the ideal

The draw is quite complicated
Would not be confident about it

Ideal profile

Male horse
Aged 4 of 5
Running within 6 weeks
Coming from 7f or 8f
9st 2lbs or less
Not ridden by 5lbs-7lbs claimer
At least 3 runs since late April
If the horse has 9 or more runs
Coming from Class 2-3 races
Not beaten more than 15 lengths
Consider it an added bonus
If coming from the Bunbury Cup

Horses now passing my angles

10/1 Ripp Orf
12/1 Mubhij
20/1 Lush Life
20/1 Kaeso
20/1 Diocles of Rome
25/1 Kimifive
25/1 Alemaratalyoum
50/1 Zap

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Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on July 26, 2019

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