November Handicap Stats – Doncaster – 3.35 Saturday Nov 9th

For those of you that are interested see below some of my advance research

into this Saturday’s November handicap at Doncaster.

The November Handicap is a 12f handicap

* Since 1997 there has been 16 renewals of this race

* The Draw throws up one very interesting statistic
* Since 2005 there has been 18 Handicaps at Doncaster
* That’s only 18 Handicaps that had 16 or more runners
* The winners came from the following Stalls
* 8 9 20 16 9 20 19 9 15 10 14 9 17 22 10 13 18 10
* Horses drawn 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 had a 0-122 record
* I suspect a sharp early bend cuts off the low draws

* Fitness is obviously crucial in this race
* Past winners had the following absences
* 14 51 22 35 57 35 41 36 26 14 15 7 34 15 41 24 days
* In 21 renewals the longest absent winner was 57 days

* All winners had at least 4 runs that season as well
* Horses with 1-2-3 runs this season have struggled
* The last to do this was back in 1990
* Since then all 89 that tried have failed

* This is the official rating of the last 15 winners
* 93 93 97 98 95 97 99 93 97 89 87 75 80 82 105
* Only 1 recent winner was rated 100 or more
* No horse rated 100+ won in the previous 14 renewals
* All 35 that tried to do this failed

* Horses aged 3 have a 11-129 record since 1990
* The 11 winners had the following official ratings
* 97 82 84 97 87 93 73 90 91 91 99
* No 3yo winner had ever ran in Group races before
* All 11 winners aged 3 ran within 36 days
* The 11 winners aged 3 have these career runs
* 9 12 4 13 4 15 6 7 8 8 6
* Most recent 3yo winners were up in class
* They all came from Class 3 or lower
* Look at 3 year olds from Class 2 or better
* Since 1994 these horses were 0-40
* The last 3yo to win from a Class 2 race was 1994
* These days when they win they do so from lower grade
* There were 3 past winners aged 3 going up in trip
* These three winners had 13 15 8 runs

* Horses aged 4 won 9 races since 1988
* They had the following official ratings
* 93 97 98 99 89 75 96 94 70
* They all had at least 9 career starts
* Recent 4yo winners had 24 39 21 26 12 15 14 career starts
* Be wary of 4yo’s who won last time out
* Horses aged 4 doing this were 0-40 since 1988
* No filly aged 4 has won this since before 1988
* The 4yo winners all had at least 6 runs this season
* None had ran in Group races before
* None came from Class 4 or lower (0-55)

* Horses aged 5 have a 4-96 record
* They had official ratings of 80 95 93 90
* They had 32 39 12 39 career starts
* They all came from 13f or further last time out

* No past winners came from Group races
* Its very rare the winner ever raced in Group Class before

* Horses aged 6 or more have a very weak record
* In this race they have a 1-91 record
* Since 1980 only 2 winners of this race were aged 6 or more

* I looked at horses that came from 10f or shorter
* There were 7 winners that did that
* Horses Aged 4 or more doing this had a 0-40 record

I hope the above helps some of you you whittle down your own sensible short list.

I won’t finalise my own final views on the race till tomorrow morning.

The new Saturday daypass option is an easy non commital way to get my end thoughts on this and several other key races tomorrow.

Best of Luck

Guy

Posted under Major Horse Races