Paddy Power Gold Cup Statistics

 

I have been doing a lot of advance research into this
weekend’s Paddy Power Meeting at Cheltenham.

See info on membership special deals at the link below:

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/offers/paddy-power-cheltenham/

The headline race of the weekend is the Paddy Power Gold Cup
This is just one of the key races I will be covering in fine details for clients.

Research such as the below I may term myself as Historic Race Profiling.
The idea is to assess history of the individual race and seek clues as to
form factors that have produced either positive or negative results.

A later stage to what we have here is then to try and match live runners
to the stats to create shortlists of the most credible candidates.

Betting decisions I tend to leave to race day when final declarations, going
and of course market odds are available.

Anyhow I hope the facts below help those of you who are
interested in making your own minds up about horses.

If you want my own personal day of race opinion
well you can get that for less than the price of a pint
via my Saturday day pass offer.

Paddy Power Gold Cup Statistics

* The Paddy Power is a 2m 5f Graded Chase
* The recent winners had the following chase runs
* 5 8 7 6 3 9 5 6 5 12 15 10 5 27 7
* 8 of the last 10 winners had run in less than 10 chases
* The horse with 3 career runs was a Gold Cup winner
* I’d want a horse with 5-15 Chase runs ideally 5-12 runs
 
* The Official Ratings of 16 recent winners were these
* 159-147-146-148-139-146-139-149
* 136-150-154-137-138-139-150-150
* The lowest rated was 136 and I’d avoid all rated lower
* Horses rated 135 or under are 0-31 in recent years
* 14 of the last 15 were rated between 136 and 150
* With last years winner beating that (159) I’d ignore this
 
* Every past winner had form in a Graded race before
* 19 of the last 21 winners had Grade 1 or Grade 2 form
* The 2011 winner (Age 7) didn’t but had Grade 3 form
* The last 18 all won at least a Class 2 race or better
 
* Experience at Cheltenham before is a big advantage
* 8 of the last 11 winners had previously won at Cheltenham

* Horses aged 5 have a 1-20 record since 1997
* That was Cyfor Malta (1998) a seasonal debutant
* He had 4 Chase runs in England and 3 more in France
* He was the only 5yo winner since as far back as 1960

* Horses aged 6 have a 3-38 record
* The 6 year old winners were rated 136 138 139
* 2 were seasonal debutants both having 5 chase runs
* They other ran 5 days beforehand and also had 5 chases
* Horses aged 6 with 6 or more chase runs were 0-23
* Allow leniency but the more over 5 chase runs the weaker
* None aged 6 had 11st 3lbs or more (0-7)

* Horses aged 7 had a 7-64 record
* The 7 year old winners had these official ratings
* 150 149 146 139 148 147 159
* 5 winners aged 7 were seasonal debutants
* They were Males with 3 5 6 8 12 previous chase runs
* They all came from Aintree or Cheltenham last season
* They all ran over 2m 4f or longer last time
* 2 winners aged 7 had ran this season
* They both won last time out within 2 weeks
* They  were Male and had 4 and 9 Chase runs
 
* Horses aged 8 had a 3-62 record
* The 8 year old winners were rated 150 137 146
* All 3 winners aged 8 ran within 2 weeks
* They were either 1st or 2nd last time out
* They also had 7-8-10 previous Chase runs
* Seasonal debutants aged 8 have struggled
* In the last 16 renewals they were 0-29
* The last 8yo to win first time out was in before 1988

* Horses aged 9 have a 2-33 record
* The 9 year old winners were rated  139 154
* One was a seasonal debutant with 12 Chase runs
* The other ran this season with 10 Chase runs

* The last winner aged 10 or more was back in 1975
* The winner of this should be aged 6-7-8-9

* Horses that raced that season were 7-135
* Horses having their seasonal debuts are 9-109

* Seasonal debutants do have the best record
* Look at the 7 winners that ran this season
* They all ran within the past 17 days
* Horses running this season
* Absent 18 or more days have a 0-59 record

* Past winners last Racing Post Rating was this
* 152 134 156 142 122 0 148 0 134 158 158 155 117

* Past winners Career best Chase Racing Post Rating
* 163 154 156 146 138 152  148 166 144 158 158 169 155

* Past winners best Cheltenham Racing Post Rating
* 159 154 126 132 138 152 144 166 144 158 147 161 155

* Past winners best Cheltenham 2m 5f Racing Post Rating
* Dnr stands for Did Not run  
 * Dnr 151 Dnr Dnr 138 152 144 166 Dnr 158 147 161 155

* All recent winners had won beyond 2m 3f
* No past winner came from a hurdles race
* I would want at least 2 previous chasing wins

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on November 14, 2013

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