The Paddy Power Gold Cup
This is the headline race today and judging by my inbox the one most casual punters are interested in.
I thought I would stick up my thoughts on it here on the blog.
This comes from the Profile and Previews section of my larger full member message. There are other races I feel offer better value today but here is my tuppence worth on the big race.
Cheltenham 2.30
The Paddy Power Gold Cup is a 2m 5f Graded Chase
This is a massive early season race but it does
not smell like a traditional renewal. Maybe that
is down to the two market leaders from smaller
stables. I have good angles I do want to follow.
* Horses don’t win this rated 135 or lower
* KING MASSINI fails this angles
* Not sure he has the class to win
* His Rating suggests not so he isn’t for me
* The last winner aged 10 or more was back in 1975
* None have placed since as far back as 1993
* ORPHEUS VALLEY fails this and other angles
* CEDRE BLEU hasn’t done enough after 14 Chase runs
* Horses aged 5 have a 1-20 record since 1997
* That was Cyfor Malta (1998) a seasonal debutant
* He had 4 Chase runs in England and 3 more in France
* He was the only 5yo winner since as far back as 1960
* CAID DU BERLAIS is the only 5yo today
* He only has 3 previous Chase runs – too few for me
* The recent winners had the following chase runs
* 9 5 8 7 6 3 9 5 6 5 12 15 10 5 27 7
* The horse with 3 career runs was a Gold Cup winner
* CAID DU BERLAIS looks short of what I want
* CANTLOW – I don’t want a 9yo with a miserable last run
* EDGARDO SOL is 7 and has run this year
* Both 7yo winners doing that won last time
* EDGARDO SOL didn’t but ran well in second
* I feel he has plenty of weight with 11st 4lbs
* Especially when never run over fences here before
* A Lack of Cheltenham Chase form worries me
* Especially when so proven on flatter tracks
* He is only a small horse and may not get home
* CHAMPION COURT has 20 Chase runs
* The last 9 winners had run in less than 10 chases
* 9 of the last 11 winners had run in less than 10 chases
* I’d prefer a horse with 5-15 Chase runs ideally 5-12 runs
* Not convinced about him after a poor seasonal debut
* I don’t think a big field helps him
* I looked at CHAMPION COURT’s sire
* 2m 4f or more – Listed/Graded race – Soft of Heavy
* So far his sires runners are 0-16 under these conditions
* On the plus side he does seem very well handicapped
* EASTLAKE – 20 Chase runs is far from ideal
* He is not like any 8yo that has won this
* OSCAR WHISKY is a 9 year old
* Clearly very talented but flawed
* I just see him being caught out in such a race
* Big field and fast pace will surely put him under pressure
* He is the Class horse and has a Wind Operation
* Has the ability but like many I expect him to fail
* JOHNS SPIRIT won this last year
* He had 10st 2lbs and a mark of 139
* This year 11st 10lbs and a mark of 156
* 15 of the last 16 winners were rated between 136 and 150
* Clearly a significantly harder task on paper rated 156
* He has a earnt his weight though to be fair
* His last run was a career best Racing Post Rating
* The weight may beat him but he won’t be far away
* Previous 6 year old winners were rated 136 138 139 139
* No 6yo won with 11st 3lbs or more since 1960
* KAPGA DE CERISY is 6 and rated 148
* No 6yo has won rated within 9lbs of that
* He has more weight than all 6yo winners too
* SHANPALLAS is a 6 year old rated 147
* No 6yo has won rated within 9lbs of that
* He won the Munster National last time
* Doesn’t strike me as the best trial for this
* Never won on ground softer than good
* PRESENT VIEW does not have any Graded form
* The vast majority of past winners had that
* That is a big worry but it is eased by last years winner
* He was also 6 and also lacked Graded Class
* He only had 10st 2lbs though
* PRESENT VIEW has a higher weight and mark
* Past 6 year old winners were rated 136 138 139 139
* PRESENT VIEW has to defy a mark of 144 in this race
* He also comes from a Hurdle race and no past winner has
* His Racing Post Ratings are pretty average as well
* Look at Past winners Career best Chase Racing Post Rating
* 141 163 154 156 146 138 152 148 166 144 158 158 169 155
* PRESENT VIEW has achieved a 146
* 10 of the last 14 winners had bettered that
* I don’t see a good enough case to select him
P o s s i b l e s
* ERICHT is 8 and has run twice this season
* He’s surely done enough to argue the track is ok
* He has a 141 Racing Post Rating at Cheltenham
* Thats as good or better as 4 of the last 13 winners had
* The other 9 had higher numbers but he has a chance
* BUYWISE is 7 and won this season
* I don’t have a big statistical problem with him
* You can argue no past winners came from a hurdle
* He has now crucially proven he handles Cheltenham
* The fences though do take some jumping
* He has made several mistakes in 2 races there so far
* This is a much better race off a 12lbs higher mark
* They will go a lot faster than the race he won in April
* Could win but could easily fail on his jumping
* EASTER METEOR is an 8yo seasonal debutant
* Seasonal debutants aged 8 have struggled
* The last 8yo to win first time out was before 1988
* In the last 16 renewals they were 0-31
* None winning makes him unsafe
* With 13 Chase runs he has more than any 8yo winner
* That said he ran a great race in last years race
* He fell 2 fences out when in the lead
* EASTER METEOR has also changed stables
* He has upgraded to the Pipes
* There could be any amount of improvement
* I fancy him more than I should do on his profile
* Statistically though he should not be the choice
* PERSIAN SNOW is 8 as were 3 recent winners
* All 3 winners aged 8 ran within 2 weeks
* His 28 day absence doesn’t worry me much
* He comes here after a career best R.P.Rating
* That rating was better than 3 of the last 14 winners
* In a bad year with a bit of luck he could win
* I think he has to be considered here
* INDIAN CASTLE is a 6yo seasonal debutant
* He was favourite for the Kim Muir at Cheltenham
* He failed my Generic Stats in that race
* There were 2 recent 6yo’s winning first time out
* They had 5 5 Chase runs and a light weight
* INDIAN CASTLE has 4 Chase runs and 10st 8lbs
* I can live with that profile but he has another problem
* INDIAN CASTLE has no Graded form which is a worry
* That’s easier to overlook as he is lightly raced
Selection
INDIAN CASTLE 10/1 Win Bet
PERSIAN SNOW 14/1 Saver Bet
EASTER METEOR 12/1 Saver Bet
Posted under Major Horse Races
This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on November 15, 2014