The National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup

For your info yesterday we advised a Full Bet to Members
to back EXMOOR RANGER & THE RAINBOW HUNTER
both each way at circa 25/1.

So first Full bet this week Lost. I suppose at the 25/1 prices
it couldn’t have been unexpected. I have never been one to
focus on short priced winners. At the end of a season you
don’t count winners you count profits. Planning to play in
a few Handicap Chases this week but yesterdays race
got the better of me and we ended up 1-0 down. Not
the result I expected. THE RAINBOW HUNTER did
not run badly for a while but didnt jump well enough
to keep in touch with them when they quickened and
faded. EXMOOR RANGER finished 6th with most bookies going 5 places
and it is hard to know if a slow start when detached and left behind
the field made any difference. Looked as if he may get
placed at one stage but neither ran well enough and we
got nothing back.

The full member message held its own for most
of the other races.
SPIRIT SON – REALT DUBH – SPARKY MAY and
GARDE CHAMPETRE all suggested each way
placed comfortably enough.

Onto Today

 

CHELTENHAM 1.30

140th Year of The National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup
(Amateur Riders? Novices? Chase) (CLASS 2) (5yo+) 4m

Forecast Odds

7/2 Alfa Beat, 5/1 Chicago Grey, 7/1 Beshabar, 7/1 Some Target
12/1 Aberdale, 12/1 Sona Sasta, 14/1 Arabella Boy, 14/1 Chamirey
20/1 Be There In Five, 20/1 Glenwood Knight, 20/1 Pearlysteps
25/1 Captain Americo, 25/1 Major Malarkey, 33/1 On His Own
40/1 Regal Approach, 50/1 Double Pride, 100/1 Carlas Dream.

* This is a 4m Novice Chase for Amateurs
* I would want at least 4 runs that season
* Only 1 of the last 17 winners had under 4 runs that year
* That was the 1998 winner who was different class
* The last 18 winners had the following races that year
* 4-5-5-4-4-4-5-8-5-6-2-7-7-6-5-10-4-4

* BESHABAR only has 2 runs this season
* That worries me especially as he is older than ideal
* His 3 Chase runs have hardly set pulses racing yet
* SONA SASTA also has just 2 runs this season
* Thats not enough for me as he’s just 2 Chase starts
* You really want at least 1 more chase runs
* I think that will catch him out
* Especially as most past winners had more backclass
* Most also had a more recent run
* SONA SASTA is rejected
* CARLAS DREAM looks outclassed
* DOUBLE PRIDE has a poor preparation
* PEARLYSTEPS is statistically not quite right
* I dont like horses aged 8 or more from 2m 6f or less
* They have a 1-31 record in this race
* That winner had 6 runs that season not 4 like him
* That winner won last time and had a recent race
* PEARLYSTEPS doesnt offer me enough
* I also feel here is a stamina doubt there
* His sire hasnt had a winner beyond 3m 4f yet
* REGAL APPROACH is 8 and comes from 2m 4f
* No winner had a similar profile and I dont like him
* ABERDALE is owned by Trevor Hemmings
* Both the owner and the sire have won this race before
* I thought he had only one problem a 112 day break
* He was due to run a few weeks ago but had a setback
* That could leave him short for this race
* 14 of the last 16 winners ran within 7 weeks
* He is not for me with a long absence
* CAPTAIN AMERICO is a 9yo with 13 + runs
* Not the best age but older horses can and do win
* What troubles me is they all had 9 + runs this year
* Only 2 horses aged 9 or more with 13 + runs won
* They had 9 and 10 races that season
* CAPTAIN AMERICO has only had 4 runs
* Not enough for a 9 year old with 13 + runs
* Horses aged 6 have a weak record in this race
* I would be very dubious about these horses
* MAJOR MALARKEY pulled up at Haydock last time
* I looked at horses from handicaps with 9 or more runs
* Those with 1-2-3-4 runs that year were 0-25
* Those that ran within a Month like him were 0-44
* None Pulled up of fell last time and none came from 27f +
* MAJOR MALARKEY doesnt have a great preparation
* ON HIS OWN looks too inexperienced with 2 runs
* Short of runs this year I’d ignore him
* BE THERE IN FIVE won 11 days ago
* Horses with recent runs have struggled in this race
* I’d have prefered at least 1 more run this season
* I also feel there is a genuine stamina doubt

SHORTLIST

* ALFA BEAT was a big gamble last week
* His problem is he has not ran in 182 days
* We know 14 of the last 16 winners ran within 7 weeks
* Neither of the ones that didnt were as exposed as him
* With 11 Chase starts he has had more than ideal
* He doesnt leap off the page to me with that absence
* He comes here  with a W W W W W record
* Soemone clearly thinks he has improved again
* Surely 9/2 is short enough anyway with his absence

* CHICAGO GREY is having his 10th Chase start
* Happy with his general exposure
* It worries me he has had 9 runs since last July
* Thats a long time on the go for a race like this
* The winner in 1993 had 10 runs that season
* There are a few little niggles I have with him
* No past winners came from a Grade 1 race like him
* His Sire hasn’t had a 4m winner yet
* May mean nothing but you do need a stayer here
* He had the speed to win a 2m race over hurdles last year.
* I see his absence of 78 days one of his big problems.
* Only 2 of the last 16 winners were absent 7 + weeks
* Both were lighter raced than he is
*  I see him more as Neutral than negative

* CHAMIREY has quite a good profile
* I would have to make him a positive
* I do have some reservations with him
* I can’t match him as closely as I’d like
* He has made mistakes in all 4 of his Chases
* He wont get away with that here
* I also wonder if he will stay 4 Miles here
* His sire’s had a 3m 7f winner (Laddoudal)
* None have won at 4 miles yet

FAVOURED SELECTIONS

* ARABELLA BOY is a 6 year old
* I wonder if he will stay 4 Miles
* His Sire has a 1-48 record with runners at 3m 3f +
* He has sired a Midland Grand National winner (4m1f)
* Thats takes a lot of the doubt away
* Only 1 from 48 over 3m 3f isnt impressive though
* I dont mind the 6yo statistic too much
* Only 1 have won but that doesnt tell the true story
* Many were massive prices and not fancied
* Many more have finished 2nd and 3rd in the race
* He has a recent run and is one of the fittest horses
* ARABELLA BOY has experience on his side

* SOME TARGET has just won at 3m 4f on soft ground
* He is the right age and has the right exposure
* He also has a more recent run than several here
* His right handed track form doesnt worry me
* Plenty of handicappers have won this race
* He does look a solid option to me

I’d Suggest a Split Stake Bet

SOME TARGET 7/1 – Half your stake to win
7/1 At Several spots inc Tote Paddy Power Ladbrokes

ARABELLA BOY  – Half your stake each way
You can get 11/1 Sporting Bet paying 4 places

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

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