Welsh National Analysis

The Welsh National has finally arrived albeit in January

and today’s mail is my attempt to find the winner. It will

not be easy given how bad the conditions are which is

illustrated by the Clerk of the course who states it’s the

lowest going stick reading he has ever recorded there.

Before the main preview and selection some

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Results This Week

There have been 8 bets this week in the Private Service

and they have produced the following results.

WON 5/6 – WON 7/4 – LOST 5/1- WON 11/10

WON 3/1 – LOST 6/1 – WON 3/1 – LOST

 

 

WELSH NATIONAL

Racing Post Forecast Odds

3/1 Teaforthree, 6/1 Michel Le Bon, 7/1 Sona Sasta

7/1 Viking Blond, 10/1 Giles Cross, 10/1 Universal Soldier

12/1 Master Overseer, Monbeg Dude

12/1 Soll, 20/1 Across The Bay, 25/1 Our Island

33/1 Arbor Supreme, 33/1 Harouet, 33/1 Jadanli

40/1 Mon Mome, 50/1 Incentivise, 50/1 Triggerman.

 

* The Welsh National is a Handicap Chase over 3m 5f

* I want to start with the Age statistics

* Bear in Mind as this is run in January that’s affected

* Horses are 1 year old than they would have been last week

* Only 1 horse aged 10 has won this since 1987

* That was Riverside Boy way back in 1976

* Avoid horses aged 11 or more

* I have gone back to 1976 and none have won

* No horse aged 11 or more have placed in 16 years

* The last 16 winners were aged 6-7-8-9

* 21 of the last 22 winners were aged 6-7-8-9

* Adjusting for the race run in the new year

* I would be concerned about only horses aged 11 +

* GILES CROSS looks wrong aged 11 absent 266 days

* The previous 20 winners had all raced that season

* GILES CROSS hasn’t and is surely too old with that in mind

* JADANLI doesn’t offer enough as a 11 year old

* MON MOME makes no appeal as a 13 year old

* TRIGGERMAN is also rejected as a 11 year old

* ARBOR SUPREME has too much to do aged 11

* I don’t see him following up his last win

* Not from so far out of the handicap and up in class

* INCENTIVISE shouldn’t have the class

* Not out of the handicap and a mark he’s not won from

* Most winners had form in Graded Races

* There were only 2 that didn’t

* They had 11 + 12 National Hunt runs and 4 + 7 Chase runs

* I’d only want a lightly raced horse if non Graded form

* HAROUET fails that and doesn’t look good enough

* His Sire hasn’t bred a winner beyond 3m 2f either

* COOL OPERATOR has just won two 0-120 handicaps

* He is stepping up 4 Grades now and in a 0-153

* I don’t see where the improvement will come

* Not considering he’s exposed with all his wins of lower
marks

* KATENKO doesn’t have much experience in England

* I think its asking a lot having never ran beyond 3m

* Fallen in 3 of 11 Chase starts he isn’t for me

* ACROSS THE BAY has a horrible weight in bad ground]

* He is 18lbs higher than his best handicap win

* ACROSS THE BAY is best avoided

* Horses with 11st 1lbs and more have struggled

* Just two have won since the 1994 winner

* That race was run at Newbury a far easier track

* The two winners were Synchronised and Halcon Genelardais

* These were lightly raced with 10 and 12 NH runs

* They only had 4 and 5 Chase starts

* I’d want a lightly raced horse if they have 11st 1lbs or
more

* Go back to 1988 for Horses coming via the Hennessy

* In 23 years the record of these horses is 0-47

* So Far all 47 that tried to win have failed to do so

* The Role of Failures includes Horses beaten at these odds

* 5/2f , 11/2 , 9/4f , 4/1, 13/2 ,11/2, 5/2f , 11/2 , 8/1

* 11/2 8/1, 9/1 5/1, 11/2 , 7/2, 13/2 7/2 9/2 5/2f

* My advice is do not rely on this Statistic much

* This year horses have an extra weeks recovery time

* That must undermine that statistic

* That said its a 23 year stat that’s still standing

* It can’t be a positive to come from the Hennessy

* TEAFORTHREE comes from the Hennessy my first worry

* He has ran twice this season

* He was beaten 40 and 27 lengths in these races

* That’s a bit too far for comfort in two races

* He won the 4m Chase at the Cheltenham Festival

* Most winners didn’t run at the previous festival

* None of the past 4 did and neither did 6 of the last 7

* I’d like evidence he has recovered from that grueling win

* TEAFORTHREE could easily overcome that and win

* I would be inclined to see him as a positive

* TEAFORTHREE doesn’t appeal at the prices though

* Especially with 11st 3lbs a higher weight than ideal

* SOLL also comes from the Hennessy

* It would worry me that he is inexperienced

* He has 4 Chase starts but was brought down in one

* Past winners had the following National Hunt runs

* 34 12 20 16 20 10 19 11 33 18 14 31 14 21

* The least experienced winner had 10 National Hunt runs

* SOLL only has 5 National Hunt runs

* That’s only half as much as the least experienced winner

* SOLL doesn’t look the right type to me

* OUR ISLAND is just out of Novice Chases

* Doesn’t look Classy enough for this race

* He has never won beyond a Class 4 race before

* MASTER OVERSEER won at Cheltenham 3 weeks ago

* There are positives about his chance

* He has winning form here and stays

* There are plenty of concerns about him as well

* Will he recover from that hard race last time out

* He has been inconsistent recently

* There could be an argument that he is best fresh

* He also ran badly in last years race

* Raised to a career high mark I feel he is risky

* UNIVERSAL SOLDIER has 9 National Hunt runs

* That’s fewer than any previous winner of the race

* He is inexperienced much as 5 Chase starts is fine

* He doesn’t have any Graded form though

* Most winners had that and that’s a worry

* There were just two that didn’t have Graded form

* They had more experience and less weight

* They both won their previous 2 races and were improvers

* UNIVERSAL SOLDIER doesn’t have that feel about him

* MONBEG DUDE is lightly raced over fences

* He only has 10 National Hunt starts as well

* All recent winners aged 7 or 8 had more

* He’d be the joint least experienced winner

* Having 5 Chase starts isn’t a huge problem

* MONBEG DUDE only completed in 3 of these

* He pulled up after 6 fences in one race

* He fell 4 fences out in another

* He is a bit short of experience

* I wonder if this may come a year too early

* I cant rule him out but he has a bit to prove

* Winning a Graded Chase last time isn’t the norm

* SONA SASTA has a lovely weight of 10st

* Happy overall with 16 runs and 9 over fences

* There is a stamina doubt about him

* He has 3 runs in races over 3m 4f or more

* He finished 5th 6th 6th beaten 51 12 29 lengths

* If he stays he is a player but its a worry

* So is the 7lbs Claimer which I’d see as a negative

* MICHEL LE BON is an interesting horse

* He won a Novice Chase back in November 2009

* Injury then forced him off the track two years

* He came back in the 2011 Hennessy well fancied

* I made him a big negative that day

* He had just 1 chase start and 730 days absence

* He then went to Kempton’s big chase in February

* He had an awful profile that day and flopped

* He wasn’t fit or experienced enough as I said on the day

* He then won over hurdles and wrapped up for the year

* This year he was a good 2nd in a solid trial race at Wincanton

* Stamina wise his sires bred 1 winner from 19 over 3m 3f
+

* That doesn’t really count as it in a cross country race

* MICHEL LE BON has 9 National Hunt runs

* That’s a bit low and all winners aged 9 or more had more

* 4 of those 9 runs were over fences

* The 2011 2007 2006 winners all had 4 Chase runs

* They were younger though so he isn’t a perfect match

* All horses aged 9 + had at least twice more chase runs

* Not sure if that matters or not

* Most had more runs that season as well

* Its a worry he has no strong form in long distance handicaps

* Is he equipped for a long distance handicap chase ?

* He hasn’t proven as much as many past winners in them

* Sure he has the ability off 144 but he has to prove it

* VIKING BLOND is a very interesting runner

* He’s a bit more exposed than ideal for his age

* His 8 Chase starts is fine though

* Horses aged 7-8 had 4 7 8 9 9 13 14 10 4 15 Chase runs

* I think that puts him in quite a good place statistically

* He is from a Sire that’s not had a winner past 3m2f yet

* Not many have tried but it is a concern

* My other concern is a lack of proven form in marathon races

* The vast majority of past winners had good form in these
races

* VIKING BLOND hasn’t also flopped in this race last year

* I can excuse that as he had a very poor profile last year

* He was favourite last year and this year has less weight

* This horse was a good Novice Chaser in 2011

* Since then I think he’s been campaigned badly

* December 2011 Welsh National he was a big negative

* Had no chance of winning that with just 3 chase runs

* He then disappointed at Ascot in February 2012

* No surprise after what happened at Chepstow

* It was ridiculous to run this 7yo in the Grand National

* Horses that age don’t win and he fell at the first

* That meant he lacked a run when running in April

* In the Bet365 Gold Cup he had been absent far too long

* Some ridiculous planning spoilt his 2012 season

* This year he has at least come out and run well

* Several positives like good recent form and track form

* I also love the fact he has two good runs this year

* VIKING BLOND has lots in his favour

 

 

Conclusion

After the abandonment and all withdrawals the market

has settled down and this year the betting looks about

right. I can see a few potential winners and its a matter

of choosing the right one. TEAFORTHREE has to be a

possible winner. I’m ignoring the bad statistic of horses

that come from the Hennessy as there is 9 extra days

recovery time but at the price he is too short to select.

I could actually make a good case for him as a place

saver around Evens. The value has disappeared from

the win market but with 4 places he could place and

be the perfect saver as a place bet. Another factor to

put me off his win chance is Rebecca Curtis has not

yet trained a winner higher than Listed Class before.

In 2011 Paul Nicholls was adamant MICHEL LE BON

was potentially top class and fancied him that year in

the Hennessy. His profile that day was laughable and

it wasn’t much better in his next race at Kempton. Its

to his credit he then won over hurdles and first time

out this year he ran very well at Wincanton. This is a

valuable race and Paul Nicholls understands that and

if he has the same animal he thought he had in 2011

then his weight wont stop him today. We do not know

if he can scale those heights but he has been laid out

for this race and unlike many Nicholls horses he has

been given time and space to fulfil his potential. He

still has time to fulfil his potential and I hope its now.

I said in my November 17 message that I was getting

excited about VIKING BLOND’s Welsh national hopes.

He has been laid out for the race by a Grand National

master and if he gets in a rhythm and gets home he’s

a serious threat and will go close. It was a close call

between my bet and saver but VIKING BLOND has a

bit more experience and more runs this season and

has 10lbs less weight to carry which will greatly help.

 

 

Selection

VIKING BLOND 10/1 + Win Bet bet365 – william hill – stan james

MICHEL LE BON 9/1 Saver Bet victor chandler – stan james

( A saver is simply a small bet staked to win back the stake
on the main bet should the saver win the race )

 

Best Wishes

Guy Ward

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Posted under Major Horse Races