William Hill Supreme Novices´ Hurdle Stats

Today I wanted to share with you some of my advance research
work for one of the major Cheltenham Races

Like all good boy scouts I believe it pays to be prepared.

I always do a huge amount of research and preparation
in advance of Cheltenham.

On daily day to day racing even I am always a few days ahead.

Today I released to full members a huge 50 page Cheltenham
Stats pdf

There are two sections to it

#1 Generic Stats

These cover the Festival as a whole or look at certain race types such as hurdles or handicap chases.

I have sent you a few snippets from the Generic Stats section
over the past two days

#2 Individual Race Stats

These look at a particular race and I guess attempt to

profile the characterises of winners and losers from many
years of that race.

So today I will give you one of those individual race stat
reports.

Members today got the huge pdf

Those that like to come up with bets of their own

are therefore now provided with a huge amount of research
that can enable them to make more informed decisions
and possibly pick off a bit of ante post value.

On race day I add to these raw stats with my own cross referencing
of runners against the stats, with going known and market odds
available

I make my final advised bet decision for clients on race day
morning.

So self thinkers are well catered for.

If all you want is my final opinion in the form of a tip,
well clients get that on race day.

Stats such as the below however are my advance preparation
and foundation work.

Anyhow onto the promised Race Stats Breakdown.

 

Cheltenham Tuesday 1.30

William Hill Supreme Novices´ Hurdle

Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m110y

* Horses aged 5 or 6 won 34 of the last 37 renewals

* Only 1 horse aged 4 has won this race recently

* He came from a Graded race and won a champion hurdle

* English horses aged 7 or more were 0-31

* English horses aged 5 won 5 renewals

* Four of these had 3-6 career starts the other 9

* They all had 3 or 4 runs that season

* English horses aged 5 with No Grade 1 form won 2 races

* English horses aged 5 absent over a month are 1-44

* The longest absence an English 5yo had was 52 days

* English horses aged 6 won 3 renewals

* All 3 came from Class 3 Novice Hurdles

* Last Time out winners have a strong record

* 15 of the last 17 winners won last time

* Horses unplaced last time out were 0-124

* Horses with 1 run have not won since 1991

* Ideally you need 2 + runs over Hurdles before

* If it’s soft ground you need at least 3 previous races

* 9 of the last 20 winners had ran no more than twice over
hurdles

* The last 3 winners did have 4 previous hurdle starts

* Avoid horses with 6 or more runs over hurdles

* Horses with 9 + runs were 1-42

* You need to have run in Class 3 or higher last time

* I wont bet any horses that ran within 2 weeks

* I wont bet any horse stepping down from 19f or more (0-27)

* I wont bet any horse that wears headgear

* Female horses are fine as long as they pass other trends

* Horses from Handicaps have a 0-42 record

* Last years runner up did come from a handicap

* The 2010 runner did as well so the stats vulnerable

* English horses with less than 2 wins were 0-115

* You need a run within 80 days unless very lightly raced

* The vast majority of winners run within 7 weeks

* There were 2 winners absent more than 60 days

* Both had just 2 previous hurdle starts

* English horses from Graded Novice hurdles are 1-43

* That winner was last year so an unsafe statistic

* Every English winner had 2-5 runs this season

* English horses absent 53 days or more were 0-57

* There was one winner absent 115 days

 

 

Here is that secret cheap deal link again

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

I will tell you what to back this Cheltenham and Why.

Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races