Turf Management At Aintree

The Grand National is arguably the pinnacle of UK horse racing, with the race itself commanding the highest prize for winning. Last year’s winner, One For Arthur became only the second horse trained in Scotland to win the race and finished four and a half lengths ahead of Cause of Causes.

Blaklion is the favourite on the latest on the Grand National bets for 2018 while Total Recall and the Last Samuri are not far behind this year’s favourite. Blaklion finished fourth in last year’s race and will be hoping to improve on that position in this year’s race.

The preparations for the Grand National are already underway, with the racecourse requiring months of work to get everything just right. Everything from making sure the going is perfect to completing the construction of the sixteen fences. The Grand National course itself is one of the most demanding courses in the country for the horses to race, while the construction of the fences and the ground preparation are equally demanding. It takes roughly three weeks to prepare the course with each of the sixteen fences taking two days to construct and dress.

For the day of the Grand National there is a huge increase in the number of ground staff that are on site to make sure everything is perfect for the big race. On this day there are usually 225 ground staff, whereas a normal race day at Aintree will only see forty members of the grounds team on site.

Our Friends at Betfair  created the following infographic which describes all of the different stages that are involved in getting the Aintree race course ready for one of the biggest races in British racing.

 

Turf-Tip-Top

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on February 28, 2018

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Haydock Horse Racing System

 

In our free newsletter this week I included links to a bit of research

into trainers at Haydock I carried out to help out a full member who

was planning to be on course there.

 

As well as the raw stats I also included a simple

and quite past profitable little horse racing system.

 

Rather than re invent the whole wheel on this blog post

instead I will simply point you to an online copy of the newsletter.

 

==> Horse Racing System For Haydock

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under Horse Racing Data and Systems

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on June 9, 2017

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Lincoln Analysis

Last week I posted up here some advance stat work for the Lincoln at Doncaster.

One of Guy’s mantras here would be

 

“It’s not the stats that are important.

It’s the interpratation of the stats that is important”

 

Below for you is how Guy himself interpreted things last Saturday.

He did so very well as you can see with main selection Bravery

going on to win the race.  The market did not fancy Bravery much.

He drifted to 20/1 SP and Betfair paid a whopping 34.67 in the win market.

==================================================

 

DONCASTER 3.35

4/1 Yuften, 6/1 Donncha, 10/1 Top Notch Tonto
12/1 Bravery, 14/1 Battle Of Marathon, Dolphin Vista
Oh This Is Us, 16/1 Third Time Lucky, Zhui Feng
20/1 Gabrial, Instant Attraction, You’re Fired
25/1 Eddystone Rock, Heaven’s Guest
Lucy The Painter, George Cinq, Highland Colori
Master Carpenter, Steel Train, Withernsea
40/1 Dream Walker, Emell.

The Lincoln
I start off here with not much interest
Racing Software can’t be trusted in this race
One of the annual races to ignore software
Just going to have a go and see what happens

I am ignoring the horses aged 7 or more
The Draw could be a factor here
Last years winner came from Stall 22
That put a bit of a spanner in the works

Go back to 2001
Doncaster have had 152 races over 8f
Horses drawn 17 or higher have a 1-64 record
That winner was last year
But he came up the middle of the track
I’d be very wary of extreme low and high draw

DONNCHA looks too risky drawn 21
When he has a breeding doubt as well
His sires runners over a Mile or more
Have a 0-19 record in Class 3 or higher

The issue with “recent runs” is complicated
Especially with horses aged 5 or more
Not going to try and dissect this issue
But I have problems with some older types
Who have some kind of recent runs

YUFTEN for example has an unsafe profile
As a 6yo coming from a 7f Listed race this year
THIRD TIME LUCKY has 3 runs in 2017
He has Stall 1 though which can’t help
He has a 7lbs claimer who has never ridden him
Never raced here before and rode in just 9 races
5lbs & 7lbs claimers are 0-61 in this and Spring mile
YOUR FIRED has a recent run but over 10f
WITHERNSEA maybe should be shortlisted
But a Mile first time worried me for him
BATTLE OF MARATHON was 3rd last year
But he had 3 warm up races last year
This year he is a seasonal debutant
He also has more weight and no runs since July
No horse has won the Lincoln absent that long

Shortlist

BRAVERY 16/1 – Drawn 20 perhaps a bit high
DOLPHIN VISTA 14/1 not ruled out
STEEL TRAIN 28/1 – 3 runs this year want him onside
OH THIS IS US 12/1 – 2 Meydan runs helpful

Selection

£2 Each Way BRAVERY 16/1

£2 Each Way DOLPHIN VISTA 14/1

£1 Win Bet OH THIS IS US 12/1

£1 Win Bet STEEL TRAIN 28/1

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on April 6, 2017

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Wimbledon Ante Post Tennis Bet

As promised on our free newsletter earlier today
below is a copy of Guy’s “Bet of The Year”

Such a  title is perhaps best attached after
a bet has won however. Along those lines
I’d say Rule The World at 50/1 for the
2016 Grand National still holds the
crown for Bet of The Year.

Very unusually this is a sports bet and not a horse.

The below was sent out to full member
clients here earlier this morning.

Unfortunately I do see the Wimbledon markets odds
on our man have contracted a bit since then.
Typically 16/1 now.

If our man wins tonight they may contract further.
If he loses then a bit of outward drift over time
may be no surprise.

Anyhow below is what Guy said earlier today.

===================================

Friday March 31st – 9.27 AM

Today’s bet could be the Bet of the Year
Normally such Tipster spiel revolts me
But it does have huge potential to be that
In a few months time we may call it that

Today my bet is an Ante Post Sports Bet
Highly unusual for me to advise any sports bet

I am doing this partly on instinct
Partly on a phone call I have had
Partly because it looks a certain arb
And I would like it on the account early

But my main reason
Is something in my gut is telling me
That this could be the bet of the year

********************************************
TODAY’S STAKED BET

Ante Post

Sports Bet

Wimbledon Tennis Championships

NICK KYRGIOS 20/1

Each Way

Half the Odds 1,2

22/1 bet365 Betfair Betbright Independents
20/1 Ladbrokes Hills Sky betfred VC Paddy Power
20/1 Stan J Boyles Independents

********************************************

TODAY’S MESSAGE

I’ve discussed the Tennis Bet elsewhere
There is never a good time to tip these bets
But I don’t think we will regret this one
We are getting 10/1 to reach the final
The draw is not as important as people think
And if we wait for that he will be 10/1 outright

One idea may be splitting stakes

£3 Each Way Kyrgios 20/1 at Wimbledon

£4 Win Bet at 6/4 to beat Federer tonight

If he wins tonight you have a great free bet
Winning or losing this evening
Would make no difference to the Wimbledon bet
I would have no more or less confidence
Regardless of how tonight’s match goes

TENNIS

My Tennis Man has rung me
Says at Midnight tonight in the Miami Open
Semi Final match
NICK KYRGIOS plays Roger Federer

Nick Kyrgios is 6/4 to win
Some of you will know his reputation
One of a young and talented brat
His recent form has apparently been superb
Said to be the next new big thing in the game
I notice he is now only 16/1 for Wimbledon
Anyway he tells me he can beat Federer tonight
Tells me to expect something special from this kid
Says he has not dropped his serve all year
Got his temperament under control
I don’t know much about it
I know Kyrgios won their only previous match
But he tells me I must watch this match
And is pushing me toward betting Kyrgios at 6/4

The conversation then progressed a bit
I said wasn’t 9/2 to win the Tournament a bet ?
He said if he beats Federer
He probably would be favourite to beat Nadal
Then we went on to talk about WIMBLEDON

Bet of the Year ?

Wimbledon

Nick Kyrigios 20/1-22/1 ?

Possibly ?

This kid is on a huge upward curve
It is Half the odds 2 places
My Tennis man says 20/1 is massive
He says it is a certain arb before Wimbledon
Djokovic has lost the plot with his liquid Diet
Federer is just getting older and older
The same applies to Rafa Nadal
He says Kyrgios is a better player than Raonic.
Murray of course will be a serious threat
But this year is ripe for a big new talent
And that 20/1 is starting to look very big

 

 

 

Posted under Main Content

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 31, 2017

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Lincoln Handicap Stats

We sent these out to full members earlier in the week
to assist any who fancied a bit of an ante post dabble on the Lincoln Handicap.

I’d describe these as “profile of the race” style stats or “major race trends”.

 
Knowing form traits that past winners exhibited or form traits
that produced mainly past losers is an obvious useful tool to have
when short listing contenders for a possible bet this year.

And if you want one point of my tuppence worth of general
good advice to using such major race trends that may be ..

Don’t fall into the trap of looking for the horse with
the most positive form trait ticks as the only possible bet.

In the long run you are after value.

A Form tick perfection horse can be everyone’s
obvious choice and too short a price.

Be happy to accept a degree of imperfection
when you feel it compensated for by odds.

 

==============================================

 

Ante Post Statistics

Lincoln Handicap

Age of recent winners
4 6 5 5 6 6 4 4 4 5 6 4 4 4 6 5 5 5
Horses aged 7 + have a 1-86 record
All 59 that ran in the last 12 years beaten

 

March-April
Class 2 handicaps on turf over 8f
There are 88 of these races since 2000
Horses aged 7 +  had a miserable 2-220 record
None of them had form in Group races before

 

Horses aged 6 + have a 10-426 record
The vast majority were seasonal debutants.
6 year olds running within 90 days
Have a worrying 1-213 record

 

4 year olds won 8 of the last 18 renewals
Horses aged 4 are best with 4-20 starts
Most are untested in pattern races
Fillies aged 4 are 0-7 in the last 17 years
4 year olds are best with a long absence
Last years 4yo winner ran in Meydan in February
No 4yo came from a 3yo handicap
No 4yo  lost 10 + lengths last time

 

No 5yo winners ran in an English Group race before
The Lincoln winner rarely has English Group form
There are 124 that tried and only one managed to do it
Last years winner did the first since the 2004 winner

 

Horses with under 4 runs are 0-8
Horses with 21 + runs won 8 of the last 23 renewals
6 of the 8 seasonal debutants
None of them carried 9st 5lbs or more
None of them raced in Group Class before

 

8 Past winner ran recently on the All weather
4 of them came from Dubai
4 ran within the previous 15 days
These 4 horses waged 5 5 4 5
None were beaten more than 4 lengths last time
They all Placed in a Class 2 handicap last time
None came from 7f or shorter
They all had 8st 11lbs or less

 

No winners came from a Class 4-5-6 handicap
Horses from 6f races won in 1994 and 1995
Both seasonal debutants aged 4 or 5
Both had 8st 6lbs or less
Horses from 9f or more won 5 of the last 12 renewals
No horse has won from a 3 year old handicap
You want a horse from a handicap last time
5lbs and 7lbs claimers are 0-36 in recent years

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 31, 2017

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