We had a good run filling Christmas stockings for you with 4 winning weekends in a row in the run up to Christmas.

Fingers crossed we can hit 5 in a row this afternoon.

That said we are not trying to hard to do so. There were a few obvious short priced selctions but we have ducked those and went for something slightly longer in price  for reasons of higher perceived edge in our favour.

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L i n g f i e l d   2.15

EVEN BOLDER 7/1 + Each Way

I start with a difficult nursery at 12.30 but I feel we
have enough negatives to sort this out. I have made
COMPTON TARGET my selection and had a saver
on Moment In The Sun but I could easily have gone
the other way around. I dont think I will be far away
here but I didn’t really see this bet as selection class.
The short price means SAFARI SUNSEEKER is not
going to be the selection either but a hot profile and
I think he probably will win. I do have a dilemma in
EVEN BOLDER and it is preying on my mind a bit.

In the last two days the best bet in the message won
at 7/1 and 7/2 but only when mentions. Yesterday I
had the first 5 winners at Lingfield and now I come
back to having a selection it would just be so typical
if Lingfield were to bear it’s teeth to throw up some
traffic problems. EVEN BOLDER is often unlucky
and he runs at a track where you need luck so I will
not be surprised I report tomorrow how unlucky he
has been. Emotion and Scare Mongering aside what
a great price he is. Freely available at 8/1 on Betfair
this is the Lowest Class of race he has raced in for
a very long time. He has been beautifully Placed in
this race. He has slipped in nicely into a 0-65 race
for the first time in years and meets opponents he
should be able to beat. We have a Top jockey and
I think he should be closer to 7/2 than 7/1 and he
could be bigger later on. He has to be worth a bet.

L i n g f i e l d   2.15

3/1 Wreningham, 100/30 Griffin Point, 9/2 Royal Bajan
6/1 Dorothy4s Dancing, 7/1 Even Bolder, 12/1 Sherjawy
12/1 Vhujon, 12/1 Welsh Inlet, 25/1 Dells Breezer.

* This is a 5f Handicap for 0-65 rated horses
* There are 104 similar races at this time of year
* DELLS BREEZER – Opposable with 1 run this year from 5f
* DOROTHY4S DANCING  is hard to read
* She is a 3yo filly and has just 1 run in the last 59 days
* That would worry me for a filly so lightly raced
* I looked at fillies like her with 9-12 runs and Class 4 form
* I found 1 similar winner a long time ago
* That horse had a stone less weight and more recent run
* DOROTHY4S DANCING – Not a negative but not for me
* I am uncomfortable with her profile
* VHUJON – Doesnt really offer me enough
* Not hard to see him getting outpaced here
* Not sure he is capable of taking this over 5f
* GRIFFIN POINT is 4yo filly from a 5f race
* I found 3 winners with that profile but all had more backclass
* None like GRIFFIN POINT has between 13 and 20 runs either
* She has 17 runs and isnt quite right
* I like the recent run just not the limited backclass
* SHERJAWY is a exposed 7 year old
* He lacks a recent run within 2 weeks
* There were 4 winners but 3 had Listed or Group class backclass
* Those like SHERJAWY who didnt were just 1-45
* That winner ran better than he did last time and with less weight
* SHERJAWY -  Not an impressive profile
* He is well handicapped though and not a negative

S h o r t l i s t

* ROYAL BAJAN is 3 from a 5f handicap
* He lacks a recent run and has Class 4 form before
* I found 2 winners like him but with 2 differences
* Both winners ran closer last time than he did
* Both had 8st 11lbs or less and he has 9st 6lbs
* ROYAL BAJAN is not a negative but not quite right
* I’d like less weight and a more recent run
* ROYAL BAJAN has had just 1 race in the last 94 days
* Thats not a lot for a 5f sprinter
* WELSH INLET is an exposed 3yo filly
* She comes from a 5f handicap and has Class 4 form
* I found 2 recent winners bit both ran within 2 weeks
* None with her profile tried to win absent over 2 weeks
* WELSH INLET has a Neutral profile
* WRENINGHAM is an exposed 6yo winning last time
* I found a couple of winners with a similar profile
* One had far more backclass but he ism just about ok
* This is a career high mark though and he is beatable

Selection

* EVEN BOLDER is an 8yo from a 5f race
* All winners his age and over did the same thing
* They all finished within 2 lengths of the winner last time
* EVEN BOLDER beaten 3.5 lengths is not technically right
* Ignore that as he was badly drawn and badly hampered last time
* He could and should easily have been much closer
* This is also a drop in class for him
* When has this horse ever had only a 0-64 field to beat
* EVEN BOLDER has a massive chance for me
* He has spent almost his entire career in better class
* I would see him as a serious runner for all his frustrations

Nb 7/1 was available earlier when full members got this.

Best price now 13/2 at VC & Blue Square

To check best odds at time when you read this see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-12-31/lingfield-park/14-15/betting/

Posted under horse racing tips

We have won for you followers the last three Saturdays in a row. Around the end of October we had another good burst of an 18/1 winner followed by a 6/1 winner.

Thanks to those of you who emailed in over the past few weeks to say thanks for the winners. It always makes me smile to here of bookies getting done over

Four in a row is a big ask however. Don’t go mad with stakes just because the last three produced winnings. A six to one shot with a calculated 25% edge for example is still statisically more likely to lose than win on the day. Bet such horses long term however and you come out well ahead.

 

Saturday’s Free Racing Tip

 

 

I like LOYALTY’s chance a lot mainly because he
has a good profile but also because I can tear holes
in the profiles of many of his opponents. The big
problem here is a big field and the desperate need
for luck in running and there are no guarantees of
that and this makes him unsafe and far more riSky.

Friday’s  Full Service Review

Overall a pretty spicy message yesterday given time was
lost with the Racing Post website going down. I ended up
with 14 races to sort out. There were 4 of these that we
broke level in through either savers or each way bets and
they just cancelled each other out. That left 10 races and
there was a clear victory with 5 winners and 5 losers lots
better than I had hoped for. This included a 10/1 winner
so well ahead on paper and overall a good message which
shows my angles work and also shows the more you read
from the message the richer the experience should be.

L i n g f i e l d  1.50

3/1 Mabait, 9/2 Spirit Of Sharjah, 5/1 Clockmaker
6/1 Loyalty, 8/1 Night Lily, Kakatosi, 12/1 Bravo Echo
12/1 Elna Bright, 16/1 Mr Willis, 25/1 Layline
66/1 Mister Green.

* This is an all aged conditions race over a mile
* Quality race but only 18 similar races are run
* I think you have to look at the Draw here
* I looked at 8f Lingfield races with 10 + runners
* The last few races went to the following stalls
* 8 6 5 8 12 7 11 10 2 8 3 10 3 7
* I think the worst stalls have to be 1-2-3
* The last 8 winners were drawn 5 or higher
* MABAIT is Top rated but I see interesting flaws
* He has fewer runs this year than every other runner
* All exposed horses had more runs this year than him
* All horses from 7f races also had more runs
* MABAIT is exposed and comes from 7f
* Dont feel he is equipped to do that with 4 runs this year
* LAYLINE comes out badly with his absence
* ELNA BRIGHT – Doesnt appeal from a 6f race
* KAKATOSI looks unsafe to me
* He has just 1 run since last July and was thrashed in it
* Throw in a step up in distance he looks opposable
* MISTER GREEN is outclassed
* MR WILLIS comes out badly and is badly weighted
* For an exposed horse up in trip he is underraced
* SPIRIT OF SHARJAH wouldnt be first choice
* Not exposed and with 1 run since last June
* SPIRIT OF SHARJAH also has a bad draw in stall 1
* NIGHT LILY wouldnt be my first choice
* I think Stall 2 wont do her any favours
* She is also a Mare and comes from a conditions race
* BRAVO ECHO – Not a negative but doesnt offer much

S h o r t l i s t

* CLOCKMAKER – I see him as shortlistable but unsafe
* He comes from 7f and winning last time troubles me
* The only horse winning at 7f last time was younger
* I think there are flaws in his profile but he’s in form
* Not keen on his draw much in stall 3
* LOYALTY – Very nice profile 3 similar winners
* He is well drawn and has easily the best profile
* Will need luck in running but a clear choice

Selection

* LOYALTY 6/1 Each Way bet365 s james

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

Two winning Saturday’s in a row.

Can we make it a treble with another winner today?

—————————————————————

 

Weather affected day and It’s Southwell that has
the most coverage as the only card that was safe.

I’m surprised an 11f handicap produces my best bet but
the 2.55pm may be best left to FOLLOW THE FLAG
a horse I have being saying for a while was well treated
and looking at his last run I think he needs this distance.
Decided against putting him up as a bet because I know
my angles in 11f handicaps are awkward and messy and
there is every chance a non runner killed my each way
options. I do see FOLLOW THE FLAG as my best bet.

S o u t h w e l l   2.55

7/2 Royal Swain, 7/2 Stanley Rigby, 9/2 Sail Home
6/1 Ostentation, 6/1 Rajamand, 10/1 Follow The Flag
10/1 Hits Only Jude, 12/1 Magic Echo.

This is an 11f Handicap for 0-75 rated horses. This is a
nightmare distance to sort out statistically as I have said
countless times before. I have few 11f races to work with
but I ran all these horses through some statistical tests to get a shortlist.
The horses with long absences struggled a bit and fell short.
So did the horses that were well beaten over 12f last time.
There are stamina doubts to consider with horses like HITS ONLY JUDE.
In the end I felt the most promising profiles were both FOLLOW THE FLAG
and SAIL HOME and whilst neither looked brilliant I can at least find a winner
like both which is a reasonable start. I have flagged up FOLLOW THE FLAG 4
times recently as well handicapped and he may well be able to win over this distance.
He appeals most with Sail Home the horse I fear the most. I could have SAIL HOME
as the saver in the race but I’d rather bet FOLLOW THE FLAG E/W as
I think he looked like he was crying out for a slower and
longer surface last time at Lingfield. He only just coped
with a faster track at a Mile but stayed on very well late
in the race and I think he could well take this race today.

Selection

FOLLOW THE FLAG 11/2 Ladbrokes – Sporting Bet  Each Way

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

A good effort  last week in the Hennessy with each way advised Planet Of Sound coming 2nd.   It was particulary sweet for those who followed the highlighted race offer from betfred as

#1 – Their best odds guarantee paid out the 14/1 Starting price not the 12/1 early price

#2 – The offer on that race returned the win bet stake if your horse finished second so you would have been left with just a winning place bet.

See Hennessy Gold Cup

On to today and something for Chepstow.

Interesting one this as it demonstrates the use of each way at shortish odds.

Most mug punters only consider each way if the place returns a net profit on a bet. eg 5/1 plus or more is a typical mug punter cut off point for each way.

Mathematically however such an idea is not correct.

Short odds horses can be great value each way in the right circumstances.

You need to think long term over many bets not just “on the day” however.

More detail on that thinking at a future point perhaps.

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C h e p s t o w  1.30

2/1 Curtain Razer, 9/4 Knock A Hand, 7/2 Rojo Vivo
7/1 Diamond Sweeper, 14/1 Gores Island
16/1 Caulfields Venture, 33/1 Finnegan Paddy
33/1 The Bear Trap, Wheres Wal, Chesil Beach Boy
40/1 Le Chasse Spleen, Young Jim, Caught Inthe Light
66/1 Malin Head, 100/1 Waywood Princess
200/1 Radmores Sam Evans.

* This is a 2m 4f Novice Hurdle
* ROJO VIVO comes from a Bumper last year
* Not a good enough profile to go with him
* The 5yo’s doing that best had 1-2 runs and he has 4
* Not a negative but there are better profiles
* DIAMOND SWEEPER – Unsafe despite the above profile
* He hasn’t yet achieved enough
* GORES ISLAND – Very weak profile
* CAULFIELDS VENTURE – Not enough I like
* CURTAIN RAZER didnt impress me statistically
* I looked at 5 year olds from Novice Hurdles
* One career run and One that season
* There were 3 winners with that profile
* These 3 winners all came from 2m races though
* Those however from 17f or more were 0-70
* Could be a statistical blip but he fails that
* CURTAIN RAZER is opposed

Selection

KNOCK A HAND Each Way 3/1 +

* KNOCK A HAND looks the safest choice
* Unorthodox profile aged 6 winning a maiden hurdle
* I found 2 horses with his profile and one of them won
* KNOCK A HAND has a better profile than the rest

When KNOCK A HAND won last time over 2m 4f on
Heavy ground it was his sires first National Hunt winner
on soft or heavy ground over 2m 4f. I am hoping that’s
something he can repeat. If he can’t then horses with a
weaker profile like Curtain Razer and Rojo Vivo will go
on and win. If he can repeat that and he does truly get
the trip on the ground then he has the strongest chance.
In a nicely framed race he looks the percentage call e/w.

* KNOCK A HAND 10/3  BoyleSports William Hill  Each Way is my selection

Nb Want to play it differently yourself the above is a potential leg of an each way double. Full members have been advised of a suitable second horse for that. As ever we are hampered with not wanting to annoy full members by puting too much up here on the free blog.

For more info on the full service click here Betting Advice

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

N e w b u r y  3.10

PLANET OF SOUND 12/1

Each Way

Hennessy Gold Cup  N e w b u r y  3.10

A Fascinating race and I have shortlisted 4 horses.
I like Wymott and Wayward Prince. It would not
surprise me to see Beshabar won as well. Its really
a race where most horses have a good narative so
it’s down to which is the most convincing. I think
the most persuasive was PLANET OF SOUND. I am
having 75% of my stake to win 25% to place.

5/1 Aiteen Thirtythree, 6/1 Great Endeavour
13/2 Wymott, 7/1 Michel Le Bon, 8/1 Wayward Prince
12/1 Beshabar, 12/1 Planet Of Sound, 14/1 Sarando
16/1 The Giant Bolster, 20/1 Carruthers, 20/1 Muirhead
25/1 Neptune Collonges, 25/1 Tullamore Dew
33/1 Billie Magern, 40/1 Blazing Bailey, 40/1 Fair Along
40/1 Qhilimar, 50/1 Balthazar King.

* The Hennessy is a Handicap Chase over 3m2f110y
* There are 19 renewals since 1992
* Horses with 6-18 career starts dominate the hennessy
* Recent winners had the following National Hunt runs

* 12-16-23-10-12-11-6- 6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16
* Horses with few runs in Handicaps dominate
* The winners had the following runs in Handicaps
* 0-21-0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 3-12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* Finishing 1st-2nd last time is very helpfull
* 16 of the last 19 winners were 1st or 2nd last time
* Since 1992 horses aged 10 or more are 0-47 in this race
* The last winner aged 10 was back in 1981
* Before that the previous one was in 1967
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES is therefore opposed
* He is a 10yo seasonal debutant hard to like
* BLAZING BAILEY is not the right type
* BALTHAZAR KING is there to make up the numbers
* QHILIMAR is the wrong type to win a Hennessy
* FAIR ALONG has not had the right preparation
* BILLIE MAGERN looks hard to fancy
* He doesnt like big fields and is not progressing
* THE GIANT BOLSTER has jumping concerns
* He has failed to complete in his last 3 Chases
* He has only jumped 8 fences in these 3 races
* He carries too much risk with his jumping
* SARANDO is 6 and has run this year
* His profile is fine I just wonder if he has the class
* He has only got Grade 2 form
* He started 50/1 in that Class of race as well
* There isnt a strong statistical argument against him
* I just think there may be clasier horses
* Some of them have lighter weights than him
* TULLAMORE DEW fell last time
* Not the ideal preparation and he isnt for me
* You have to bank on him improving a lot
* The trip may bring that out but its not certain
* He was Novice Handicapping at the last Cheltenham
* He has a lot to prove in terms of class
* MUIRHEAD has been summer jumping in Ireland
* Thats not the profile of a Hennessy winner
* He is more exposed than almost all past winners
* He has been busier this season than any of them
* MUIRHEAD just looks too untypical to me
* CARRUTHERS was beaten 20 lengths in this last year
* He had a good profile then but still failed
* He likes a small field and wont get that here
* He has already had more chase runs than is ideal
* He is too riSky in a big field handicap like this
* AITEEN THIRTY THREE has 1 run this year
* All winners doing that came from a Handicap
* AITEEN THIRTY THREE does not do that
* Horses that come from Non handicaps like him were 0-25
* He also comes from a 2m 5f race
* Only 1 winner had 1 run this year from 21f or shorter
* That was One Man who had less weight and was younger
* I wasn’t impressed with his profile
* AITEEN THIRTY THREE doesnt offer enough
* MICHEL LE BON has not run in 730 days
* No past winner had anything like that absence
* No Seasonal debutant won without Grade 1 form
* MICHEL LE BON hasnt even got that
* His biggest problem is having just 1 Chase start
* Last years winner only had 3 and he was inexperienced
* Surely he shouldn’t be able to win with 1 chase start
* GREAT ENDEAVOUR won the Paddy Power last time
* Personally I don’t like that as a trial race
* There is precious little recovery time from a hard race
* The double has been done by Celestial Gold (2004)
* The previous winner of that race was in 1980
* That said it has been done so I will overlook that
* When Celestial Gold won he had less weight
* Celestial Gold was less exposed as well
* Celestial Gold also had more backclass as well
* This is GREAT ENDEAVOUR’s 7th Handicap Chase
* He is now 22lbs higher than when winning the first
* Thats a worry especially with no Grade 1-2 form
* I Looked at past winners with No Grade 1-2 form
* Only 1 past winner won when as well raced as him
* That was 40/1 shock Sibton Abbey in 1991
* GREAT ENDEAVOUR doesn’t feel completely safe
* He meets horses with more backclass yet more scope

S h o r t l i s t

* BESHABAR is a 9yo seasonal debutant
* The only 9yo debutant to win was Denman in 2009
* BESHABAR wont find it easy trying to repeat that
* He does have a lot less weight to carry than Denman
* His Chasing profile is more than adequate
* In his favour is low mileage
* His Scottish National win was impressive
* He only had 4 chase runs before that
* He has only been raised 4lbs in the weights
* I think thats generous and he could go well
* BESHABAR would be a Positive
* I could have taken a chance with him
* My only reservations is will he need the run ?

* WAYWARD PRINCE comes out very well
* He is a seasonal debutant 7 year old
* He has Grade 1 form and between 9 and 18 runs
* Horses with that profile won 4 past renewals
* The 2001 2005 2007 2010 winners shared that
* The 4 winners had 18 11 11 12 career starts
* WAYWARD PRINCE  fits that nicely with 10 starts
* These 4 winners had 6-4-5-3 previous Chase runs
* WAYWARD PRINCE matches that with 5 Chase runs
* There is one difference with his profile
* No winners came from a Novice race last year
* I’d ignore that as he had Grade 1 form before that
* Few Hennessy winners have headgear
* WAYWARD PRINCE is certainly shortlistable

* WYMOTT pulled up in the Sun Alliance last March
* So did last years winner of this race so it doesnt matter
* He was diagnosed with a small crack in a bone
* WYMOTT has a very encouraging profile
* He is a seasonal debutant 7 year old
* He has Grade 1 form and between 9 and 18 runs
* Horses with that profile won 4 past renewals
* The 2001 2005 2007 2010 winners shared that
* The 4 winners had 18 11 11 12 career starts
* WYMOTT fits that nicely with 11 starts
* These 4 winners had 6-4-5-3 previous Chase runs
* WYMOTT again matches that with 4 Chase runs
* I think he has a good profile

S e l e c t i o n

* PLANET OF SOUND is a 9yo
* He is the second best horse in the weights
* I think he can outclass these horses
* We had a 9yo seasonal debutant win in 2009
* This horse has got speed and class
* Enough Speed to Place in the 2m Arkle in 2009
* Enough Class to win a Grade 1 over 3m 1f
* Clearly he likes good to fast ground
* He has a good record when fresh
* I think he is best on Galloping tracks with long run ins
* His dislikes Sharp Tracks like Aintree and Haydock
* His wins come at Exeter Punchestown Chepstow Newbury
* His record at Newbury is 2 W W W
* PLANET OF SOUND has fallen once in 12 chase runs
* That was in the Grade 1 Betfair Chase in Feb 2010
* He then flopped at the 2010 Cheltenham Festival
* He wasnt fit that day and had a horrible preparation
* He also showed signs of having a breathing problem
* He then won the Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup
* That was a Grade 1 race and he beat a high class field
* War of Attrition – Cooldine – Denman all behind him
* His next run was his seasonal debut in 2010-2011
* No shame in coming 3rd in a Grade 1
* He didnt like the ground or the track
* The Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander beat him
* There was no shame in that run
* His last run 10 months ago he flopped in the King George
* He Choked that day but has since had an operation
* This could be the time to catch him
* His best track and his Handicap debut
* He has to prove he stays but I think he will
* He wasnt stopping over 3m 1f in Ireland
* I believe he is the Class horse today with a chance
* The second season Chasers are not strong this year
* PLANET OF SOUND has to be worth a bet

12 /1 at bet365 who pay 5 places
Also 12/1 at BoyleSports – sjames – Ladbrokes – VC

latest odds available at http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-11-26/newbury/15-10/betting/

NB betfred have an offer on this race that may interest some of you.
If your horses finishes 2nd to the SP favourite you get your win stake back
See Hennessy Offer
It is also a bet365 4/1 + offer race  ( free bet on next channel 4 race if your bet wins at 4/1 or over )

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips