H u n t i n g d o n  2.20

15/8 Getmeouthedoldrums, 2/1 Spring Moon
5/1 Call At Midnight, 13/2 Breaking Silence
10/1 Moon Melody, 12/1 Kercabellec.

* This is a Handicap  Chase over 3m 6f +
* There are 43 similar races at this time of year
* GETMEOUTHEDOLDRUMS has just 2 runs
* Both came over hurdles and none over fences
* Asking a lot to win this on his Chase debut
* I looked at every long distance chase like this
* Thats every Chase at 3m 5f and more in November
* I looked at how many Chase starts every winner had
* The following is how many Chase starts they had
* 10 4 14 12 9 6 17 17 2 13 7 15 21 14 23 6 2 11 6 9 15
* 31 7 0 11 9 8 5 23 16 6 32 3 12 12 5 9 5 14 4 8 7 6
* The odd winner did win when very inexperienced
* I think GETMEOUTHEDOLDRUMS is vulnerable
* KERCABELLEC is older than all winners
* CALL AT MIDNIGHT is unsafe as a Mare
* Only 1 piece of Chase form you can like her on
* I think she is quite riSky off topweight
* MOON MELODY – Has to be vulnerable
* He is out of the weights and comes from hurdles
* BREAKING SILENCE has a definate chance
* I find him just about acceptable
* He does have to prove he stays though
* The Sires only had 1 winner over this far
* That was in a tiny field when half of them fell
* SPRING MOON has 6 runs and just 3 Chase starts
* He comes from a Beginners Chase over 3m
* I think its a better profile than Getmeouthedoldrums
* I dont have a problem with him
* SPRING MOON is a positive
* I think he is easily the safest profile here

Selection – SPRING MOON

5/2 at spreadex – Ladbrokes – bet365

PS Out of interest the main service has an interesting private forum where clients can share extra information.  Members here include several who own their own horses. An extra little snippet from one who was at the stable this morning is below.

I was up at Martin Keighley’s place this morning and saw Spring Moon going off in his little box. Martin thinks he has a good chance. So backs up Guy view.

PS out of interest the same member also added news on two other runners from the same yard the Trainer thought well of when he was speaking to him this morning.  One for Sunday and one for next week. For obvious reasons I do not want to blab about them here in public.

Posted under horse racing tips

Not the strongest bet this year but I am having a personal

smaller stakes dabble at what I feel are value odds.

Lingfield 3.55

Low grade handicap. MISS BOUNTY is not a
statistical pick. I’m not convinced any of the
runners are statistical choices. I like her odds.
All year I have been banging on about her sire
not getting winners over 12f and more and It
interests me she drops in trip now to what is
her best distance as I explain below. She also
has good excuses for her last two runs and it
is likely she was not fit. She is the forgotten
horse in this race and 10/1 seems a big price.
I am going to leave her as a Mention for the
following reason. She does not have the usual
headgear on. She hasn’t yet won without any
headgear yet. She won last March when it was
applied after several runs without any and I
don’t know how significant that might be. It
is a Gap in my Knowledge or at least I don’t
feel I can overlook it with confidence. That
stops me betting her hard. I might well have
a saver on Beggers Belief but I do prefer the
mare MISS BOUNTY at the price and have
plans to bet her. Happy to ignore the issues
with headgear for my bet but not happy to
take the chance for any stronger selection.

10/1 at betfred – Ladbrokes – Coral – s james

.

Posted under horse racing tips

Last day of the flat season today but we are seeking a profit in one of the National Hunt races at Sandown.

S a n d o w n  3.30

3/1 Hold On Julio, 7/2 Very Stylish, 6/1 Earth Planet
7/1 Moleskin, 8/1 Craiglands, 8/1 Pak Jack, 8/1 Soixante
9/1 Appleaday, 50/1 Local Present.

This is an interesting 3m Handicap Chase. I looked at
all similar races at this time of year. They all have to
be considered expect maybe LOCAL PRESENT. I am
going to oppose VERY STYLISH. He won on his chase
debut but that was a long time ago now and I wasnt too
impressed. I’m in no hurry to bet PAK JACK as he is a
11 year old seasonal debutant with topweight and has a
career high mark and poor win record. I cant rule out
several of these but two horses did stand out here.

HOLD ON JULIO

Initially I was going to make him a negative as there
are no Handicap Chases won by horses coming from a
Maiden hunter Chase. Then I can across this statistic.

* Horses coming from all Hunter Chases
* Having Under 9 career starts
* First Time Out
* There were 9 horses with that profile
* These horses had a very interesting 5-9 record

It strikes me the only reason to run a Hunter Chaser
like HOLD ON JULIO in a race like this is because he
is very well handicapped. He has won point to points
as well as his Hunter Chase win and Alan King has not
bought him for nothing. I have to see him in a different
light despite the fact the brilliant 5-9 record of Hunter
Chasers doesnt include winners from maiden hunters.

EARTH PLANET

There is a very good record in this race for horses
aged 9 that have recent runs especially over 3m or
more. Having a recent run has been a big help here.
When you consider the Whip Rules now that might
even be more of a help to EARTH PLANET. After
all apart from the “no hoper” All seven of his main
rivals are seasonal debutants. EARTH PLANET has
a considerable fitness advantage with 4 races so Far
this season. He has just placed at Cheltenham in a
similar Class race.  Yes he is frustrating and hard to
win with but he consistently runs well and has form
on right handed tracks and has shown he has enough
ability to win this race. Given how helpful its been
to have a recent run in this race I have to fancy him.

Selection

I do like two here a lot. I feel I have to have a saver
on HOLD ON JULIO around 3/1 but I think there is
a very good chance EARTH PLANET’s fitness may
get him home today and I like him each way.

EARTH PLANET 7/1 Each Way
HOLD ON JULIO 3/1 + Saver Bet

Best odds at time of free blog post

Earth Planet 7/1 Ladbrokes -  Tote

Hold On Julio VC – Tote – betfred

.

Posted under horse racing tips

N e w m a r k e t   4.25

7/4 Jet Away, 3/1 Dux Scholar, 9/2 Retrieve
6/1 Slumber, 12/1 Honour System, Dangerous Midge
14/1 Mantoba, 16/1 Classic Punch.

I have never done this race before. Think I know
why as its a race that gets mixed up with a similar
race. Its a 10f Listed race for all aged horses. Not
much I can do here. I have a decent profile I like
so will go with him. Some of these are very hard
to rate. Not sure several are safe with only 1 run
in months. I can’t tell how fit they are and to be
fair there are past winners doing that. Giving up
on profiles that beat me but I do have one decent
profile here and thats my choice DUX SCHOLLAR.

* DUX SCHOLAR has the best profile
* Horses aged 3 coming from a Conditions race
* Running over 8f 9f 10f last time out
* Running within a Month
* Between 7 and 12 career runs
* Between 4 -5 -6 runs that season
* There were 3 horses with that profile
* They finished W W W
* The winners in 1994 2000 2001

Selection DUX SCHOLAR

11/4 in several spots including Paddy Power Blue Square bet365 VC

.

Posted under horse racing tips

N e w b u r y   2.45

7/2 Al Kazeem, 7/2 Beaten Up 9/2 Mohedian Lady
6/1 Barbican, 13/2 French Navy 20/1 Theology
25/1 Vulcanite.

The St Simon Stakes is a Group 3 race over 12f for all aged
horses. There are 21 renewals of this race since 1991.
I see THEOLOGY one to oppose and surely vulnerable coming
from a 2m race. Just one winner did that and only two past
winners dropped in trip at all. Horses from 13f or further
on their latest starts struggled. BARBICAN looks vulnerable
as he won at 14f last time and has to come back in trip.
I feel VULCANITE should be opposed down in trip as well.
None of the past 21 winners were like BEATEN UP who has just
2 career starts. The least experienced past winner of this
in the last 21 years had 4 runs. No male horse has won it
with under 5 runs and BEATEN UP with just two runs looks
just too riSky. FRENCH NAVY didnt come out well as he has a
heavy defeat last time to overcome and He is a 3yo going up
in distance and I want more runs this season for a horse with
that profile. I shortlist two horses.

* AL KAZEEM – Chances but 3yo fillies are better
* I’d like another run this year or a last run at 12f

Selection

MOHEDIAN LADY

* Fillies aged 3
* Coming from 12f last time out
* Between 3-4 runs that season
* Running within 10 weeks
* Similar horses had a 6-8 record
* MOHEDIAN LADY has that 6-8 record

I am going with her as 3yo fillies have a great record
and she has comfortably the best profile. Winning at
Newmarket last time she broke the track record. Not
really a positive for me. The Faster they go the less
chance they can repeat that form next time but how
that affects her I don’t know. I dont see a better bet
though and MOHEDIAN LADY appeals around 7/2

7/2 around earlier for full members but best price now
at time of posting on our free blog is 10/3 at Sky

PS Sky introduced a new £10 free bet offer the other day for new customers.
Interesting about it the fact that you do not need to
deposit any cash with them to get it.

.

Posted under horse racing tips