Mathematician 285

Blog Selection

Lingfield 3.35

INTERNATIONALDEBUT

Each Way Single BEst Price 10/1 William Hill , Ladbrokes, Coral

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On the Service for Full Members of mathematician-betting there are seven previews
today with 5 at Lingfield and 2 at Wolves.
The 1.20 at Lingfield is a novelty selection
so lets ignore that to start with. That leaves 6 previews.
It sounds far too ambitious to say this – especially as its
Lingfield and its a Saturday but the remaining 6 previews
have produced 6 very strong selections. I feel that I have
Nailed it today and I fancy all 6 very strongly. I think it
is that good a message. Realism tells me I have no hope
of getting 6 winners in 6 races but I dont see where my
weak link are and I wouldnt have a problem at all with
making any of the 6 selections and had the prices been
better in a few cases even account bets were possible in
many of these races. This makes picking the right ones
today for the top of the message a nightmare.

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T O D A Y  ‘ S     R  A  C  I  N  G

Yesterday we had no business and just side stepped a pretty
limited day that didnt offer anything. Hope thats put me in
the right frame of mind for a much busier day today. With
all the inspections and marginal decisions about what is on
and whats off I decided to concentrate mainly on the sand.
Its a Number Cruching Blockbuster at Lingfield and Wolves
and whilst maximum respect is given both tracks I have had
a good crack at both meetings and hope for a good day.

For the free blog I am lookign at just one race at Lingfield.

LINGFIELD 3.35

WIILIAM HILL TOP TEAM FOOTBALL
PRICES HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (4yo+,0-100) 1m2f

9/2 Lady Jane Digby, 5/1 Baylini, 11/2 Philatelist,
8/1 Ace Of Hearts, 8/1 Formation, 8/1 Internationaldebut,
14/1 John Terry, 16/1 Al Muheer 33/1 Prairie Spirit.

* This is a 10f handicap for horses rated 0-100
* We have had about 64 similar races run before
* PRAIRIE SPIRIT looks unfit to win a race like this
* ACE OF HEARTS is a 10 year old
* None of the 64 winners were that old
* He also has to step up from a Mile
* No horse aged 8 or more managed that
* He also has just 1 run since October
* He isnt well treated for his age and hasnt won at 10f before
* I dont see ACE OF HEARTS as a good bet here
* AL MUHEER has only ever won a maiden
* That instantly made him badly handicapped
* All 14 races since he has lost and is only 5lbs lower
* He has never done the trip before
* It will need to improve him a lot to win a 0-100
* That said AL MUHEER might find that improvement
* He is a fair price at 14/1 and has an outside chance
* JOHN TERRY looks more of a 12f horse
* He has a chance but I have to prefer others
* The race 14 days ago at Lingfield could be important
* FORMATION won that race at 11/1
* LADY JANE DIGBY was 2nd and BAYLINI 3rd
* INTERNATIONALDEBUT was back in 4th
* Less than 2 lengths seperated all 4 runners
* FORMATION won that race 14 days ago
* He had previously been beaten in a claimer
* I think the race was run to suit him last time
* I wouldnt be confident he would beat them all again
* His draw in stall 2 could be an issue
* The last 13 handicaps here with 8 or more runners
* None went to horses drawn in stall 1 or 2
* Only 1 went to a horse drawn 3 as well
* Higher drawn horses have had the edge recently
* This puts me off FORMATION and CONFIDENTIALITY
* I dont want to shortlist FORMATION
* LADY JANE DIGBY is another filly
* Fillies that came from handicaps were 1-45
* They dont score well but you have to respect her
* She’s in form – unexposed and has run in the class before
* LADY JANE DIGBY is respected and shortlisted
* BAYLINI has a chance but does have a bit to prove
* He hasnt yet won from his mark or in the class before
* INTERNATIONALDEBUT is a big runner for me
* He has won from marks of 87 and 92
* Today he has a mark of 95 but that doesnt worry me
* His last 3 runs all had excuses from marks of 99
* Three runs ago he dropped from 8f to 6f a big problem
* I didnt fancy him that day and he duly lost
* Two runs ago he moved up to 7f
* He had a 0-50 stat to overcome that day and lost
* That was no surprise as it was also his Southwell debut
* He ran in the race 14 days ago behind Formation
* He was a fast finishing 4th that day but he may improve
* That day he was up from 7f to 10f
* That had to have inconvenienced him
* Now conditioned at 10f he looks a big runner
* PHILATELIST is respected and has a chance
* He is slowly getting fit now
* Not the best handicapped horse in the race but all class
* PHILATELIST has to be respected but not for me

SHORTLIST

INTERNATIONALDEBUT
LADY JANE DIGBY

SELECTION – Its a wide open race but I feel I have made
a reasonable case for INTERNATIONALDEBUT and he is my main fancy in the race.
I think his last run has been criminally ignored. He was inches behind 3 of these when
having a 3f step up in trip which disadvantaged him. I feel
10f here must be in his range lookingat his form especially
here. If they got off hard he might be suited to a come from behind run and if there
is no pace he has a turn of foot. I see him coming fast and late and whilst this is not easy
and he does have a bit to prove like many others he looks the forgotten horse and a really big price around 10/1

SELECTION – INTERNATIONAL DEBUT  EACH WAY at 10/1

Posted under horse racing tips

Today’s Selection

Ayr 2.55

HOTHAM 9/1

AYR 2.55 – HBG PROPERTIES HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (3yo+, 0-85) 5f

5/1 Highland Warrior, 11/2 Prince Namid, 6/1 Ice Planet, 7/1 Regal Royale, 9/1 Killer Class,
11/1 Divine Spirit, High Curragh, The Bear, 12/1 Charles Parnell, Hotham, Sandwith, 16/1 John Keats, The Nifty Fox.

This is a 5f sprint handicap for horses rated 0-82 with 20 past renewals of this race. Tougher than it usually is as all horses are experienced enough and have ran enough this year and none have absences. In a race that’s been full of shocks in the past and we don’t have any big negatives today. I would oppose all horses that had ran in Group races before like THE BEAR as all 40 that tried lost. I would take out the horses dropping from 7f or more like CHARLES PARNELL as none won. I would take out all horses that hadn’t won at the distance before like JOHN KEATS. It’s further complicated by the fact many ran in last year’s race. I think I would rather have a horse that ran within the last 2 weeks. The last 4 winners of this race all ran within the previous 7 days. In the last 20 renewals horses with 13 + career runs that didn’t race within a month had a 4-174 record which isn’t very good. I oppose HIGHLAND WARRIOR who was 4th in this last year. He’s the oldest horse yet has the longest absence. There has been 248 of these handicaps in September at all tracks. Look at horses aged 9 or more that didn’t run within 15 days and you find a 1-71 record. That shows HIGHLAND WARRIOR has a tough task. He has done very well to win 2 selling races and a 0-74 but this is tougher and his absence and age is a concern and I feel he will stop winning now and I have to oppose him today.

SANDWITH and HIGH CURRAGH are also exposed horses that haven’t ran within 2 weeks. SANDWITH won’t want the ground as bad as this and all his winning form is on better ground and he is 7lbs higher than his best previous win. You can also argue HIGH CURRAGH wants better ground and there has to be a doubt as to whether he wants 5f especially on this ground. DIVINE SPIRIT is another horse that hasn’t had a very recent race. He had a very recent run before winning this race last year and was on a roll then. Now he comes here without a recent run and off the back of a well beaten run last time much as the draw hurt him. I don’t think he is safe. I don’t want a horse that was beaten so badly as THE NIFTY FOX and I dislike his draw. You can also argue that he wants a smaller field as he is 0-26 in fields of 10 or more runners. It will be interesting to see if the only 3 year old KILLER CLASS runs after running yesterday. He was a bit unlucky yesterday but it was only a 0-68 and this is a 0-82. If you look at 3yo’s in this race they are not brilliant. In fact with 13 or more career starts they are 0-75 and that’s a worry. In 248 other races we know when 3 year olds have 21 or more runs they are 0-104 and although KILLER CLASS doesn’t fail that with 19 runs he is close and I looked at the 248 races for 3 year olds that had a very recent run within 4 days. They had a 0-18 record. Overall I would want to oppose him much as last day runners should never be taken lightly and it is an advantage. KILLER CLASS isn’t for me though.

ICE PLANET is about to win as he is so well handicapped but as he showed at Chester he really wants 6f and he may not get away with it here. This 5f is sharper than the 5f at Chester by almost 1 second and that won’t help him. He should be outpaced. He should be the fastest finisher. Quite whether he can finish well enough to win this is one of the more interesting issues in the race. My gut feeling is he will not be able to do that and he does look the stable second string behind PRINCE NAMID.

PRINCE NAMID last won 28 months ago and has lost all 28 times since then but he is well handicapped and will love conditions. Dandy Nicholls has just bought this horse in July. You have to argue it’s a serious upgrade in stable. He ran him 2 days ago where he must have needed the race after a 73 day absence. He ran well to be 3rd and I don’t doubt that Dandy Nicholls is a far better trainer for this horse but I have two worries. You can look at his recent form in two ways. Firstly will he bounce? He ran very well after a long absence and comes out very quickly and he must be a prime candidate to bounce.

The other side of that coin is whether two runs in almost 3 months is enough to guarantee
fitness on heavy ground over 5f. I would be very worried about that.

REGAL ROYALE is in flying form and at the top of his game. He likes the conditions but he is probably now at the limit of his ability. I would argue Metaphorically that whilst the water isn’t over his head in a race like this its “At his head” and in a 0-82 in a race like this he could possibly drown. I think he is a horse form Class 4 tracks and this could just be a bit above his pay grade.

SELECTION

HOTHAM

HOTHAM ran well last time on soft ground and on that run has to be given a massive chance. Whilst all his wins have come on faster ground he has plenty of soft ground form. He doesn’t seem to stay 6f on soft but he does handle soft ground at 5f. Bottom line he caught the eye last time at Doncaster staying on very late in a far better race than this 9 days ago. That’s makes him statistically perfect. That Doncaster race is a good trial race for this and it was soft that day and in another few yards he could have placed. On that form he must have an outstanding chance in this.
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Posted under Past Horse Betting Tips