Today is probably the quietest Saturday we will get
for a few months. No Flat cards at all. Kempton is an
awful card on the sand. That just leaves an all chase
card at Carlisle and Haydock where neither card has
a maiden or Novice Hurdle. It’s a very drab saturday.

Our season proper will start on Bank Holiday Monday.
Next week will be a significant week. The Flat starts to
take off and get busy and the Grand National meeting
at Aintree dominates so I can start to give more bets
and have much more choice and variety something I
just have not had this week or today which is awful.

Done what I can looking at a few races today but we
have not been offered anything interesting and Not
close to having a Bet today. There are a few horses
with good solid profiles today but not exceptionally
good ones. Reluctant to go with any horse today at
the top of the message. I’m not going to let the worst
Saturday Cards in months seduce me into a serious bet but
now the Flat is back we will get a lot busier from now on.

If stuck for inspiration today however consider the following

CARLISLE 4.00

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Novices´ Chase (CLASS 3) (5yo+)  2m4f

13/8 Mr Woods, 3/1 Finney, 7/2 Youngstown
7/1 Ginolad, 15/2 Heez A Steel.

This is a 2m 4f Novice Chase. There has been 453 similar
races at this time of year. I dont have a big problem with
FINNEY’s absence or the fact he is so lightly raced this
season but any horses that won with his profile had not
come from a Handicap. I couldnt find one from a Novice
Handicap and I wasn’t that impressed with his profile.

* YOUNGSTOWN wouldnt be my first choice
* Not coming down 12f in 17 days
* HEEZ A STEEL has a poor profile
* Exposed horses from hurdles struggled
* None dropped in trip and I thought he was unsafe
* GINOLAD has a difficult profile to read
* He is 10 and most of his career was in Australia
* He won the 2008 Australian Grand National
* Good start to his English career but he has regressed
* I couldnt rule him out but I couldnt find a similar winner
* I thought MR WOODS had the strongest profile

MR WOODS

* Males winning 2m 4f Novice Chase last time
* 13 or more career starts
* 5-6 runs this season
* Running within a month
* There were 20 horses with that profile and 10 won
* The 10 losers finished 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 F
* MR WOODS has a strong profile

5/2 at many including  PaddyPower s james BoyleSports bet365

Posted under horse racing tips

STRATFORD 3.00

Alcester Selling Hurdle (CLASS 5) (4yo+)  2m6f110y

4/1 Tabaran, 11/2 Dusty Dane, 11/2 Heraldry, Irish Legend
6/1 Answer Me, 6/1 Attorney General, 9/1 Triple Bluff
16/1 Little Rort, 25/1 Eskimo Pie, 25/1 Little Blackbeetle
33/1 Brookfieldshector.

* This is a Selling hurdle over 2m 6.5f
* There has only been 20 similar races

Interesting little race. Only 20 similar races but all 20
winners ran within 10 weeks. HERALDRY has been
absent 122 days and that worries me for a 10yo with
just 2 runs this season. DUSTY DANE has been off
111 days. There were the odd chasers win like him
but the only one that was exposed had Grade 1 form
and he doesnt and that absence has to worry for an
exposed horse. ESKIMO PIE has been off 99 days
and as a horse aged 11 lightly raced this year he is
not for me. TRIPLE BLUFF has a long absence and
as an exposed Chaser I couldnt find a similar winner.
LITTLE BLACKBEETLE is too inexperienced for a
mare. ANSWER ME has just 2 runs this season. I
looked at horses like him from 2m 5f or shorter and
just two runs that year and found a poor 1-49 record.
LITTLE RORT is rated far lower than most and has a
horrible task at the weights and should be out of his
depth. IRISH LEGEND certainly has the ability but I
do have some issues with him. He comes here from a
Chase and well exposed and these horses have not
been winning these races. You have to wonder if he
is in form. He has pulled up twice in a row and his
last run was only 3 weeks ago. TABARAN has a
pretty solid profile with a recent race and although
he has limitations he should run his race which is
something not all of these can say.

ATTORNEY GENERAL

He is exposed and only 3 Exposed horses won in the
20 races. However they all had Grade 1 form as he does
as well. Exposed horses with Past Grade 1 form in these
selling races had a 3-4 record and all 3 winners were 10
and 11 year olds as he is.

* Horses with Grade 1 form before
* Running within 7 weeks
* Aged 9 or more
* Having run this season
* 6 horses had that profile in 20 races
* They finished W W W W W 8
* The only loser was an outsider
* Exposed 11 year olds with this profile were 2-2
* ATTORNEY GENERAL looks interesting statistically

He is a problem horse and hasnt won in a while
but he is down to bottom grade with a recent run.
Just 4 months ago he was 2nd at Cheltenham in a
competetive 0-120 handicap and that form would
be good enough to win this. He lost his way after
that but last time was a much better run and I see
him having the best profile in the race

Best Priced 11/2 sportingbet

Posted under horse racing tips

No Account Bet

Twelve races previewed today however for full members.

I have picked a random one for todays free blog.

DONCASTER 4.35

Blue Squareuare Supporting Marie Curie Cancer Care
Maiden Hurdle (CLASS 4) (5yo+) 3m110y

7/4 Wayward Prince, 7/2 South Leinster, 11/2 Penylan Star
10/1 Bally Sands, 10/1 Basford Lady, 12/1 Eros Moon
12/1 Florarossa, 14/1 Supreme Plan, 20/1 Collyns Avenue
20/1 Saddlers Mount, 25/1 Maska Pony, 40/1 Hi Ho Silvia
150/1 Secret Gift, 200/1 Just Chrissie, 200/1 Rosie Larkin.

* This is a Maiden Hurdle over 3m
* January and Febuary have had 60 of these races.

The 60 similar races point to the big two runners at the head of the betting.
If you take horses that come from Bumpers you find a poor 2-102 record.
None of them had just one run (0-39) or were aged 5 (0-22) so PENYLAN
STAR fitting both those stats is a Negative. EROS MOON also fails that and
is a negative. Female horses have a poor 2-118 record. None of them had
under 5 runs. None were Unplaced last time out and those that came from
2m 4f or shorter were 0-58 so It’s easy to oppose both BASFORD LADY
and FLORAROSSA. I can not find a winner like MASKA PONY but he’d
probably be best outsider. I cant find a horse like BALLY SANDS in 60
races beaten so far last time so recently and surely it’s asking a lot for him to
overcome that so soon. No horse was beaten as far as SADDLERS MOUNT
after just 1 run. The outsiders look opposable.
I see this between 2 horses. SOUTH LEINSTER  is respected
but I fancy WAYWARD PRINCE to win

Selection -WAYWARD PRINCE

7/4 when advised to full members earlier but now best priced 5/4 at Coral Sky sportingbet

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

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Posted under horse racing tips

No Account Bet

1 Selection

Haydock 2.55

DANNY ZUCO

Each Way 9/2 CanBet   Ladbrokes   VC

I see todays selection as just a routine one and it
was closer to being a no bet day than an account
bet day. We knew this particular Saturday was one
where we had no Flat racing on Grass and that our
options would be limited and its possibly the worst
Saturday card of the season.

The only flat card today is the All Weather card
at Kempton and I would be hard pressed to name
a track that I dislike more. I detest the place with
a passion. I dont like my angles there. I dont like
the way races are run there and the place leaves
me cold and lacking confidence there. That said I
have a few races I’m previewing and have done as
much as I can there as its the only flat card.

**********************************************

T O D A Y ‘ S   R A C I N G

N A T I O N A L    H U N T

Given that Kempton is the only Flat card today to be
confident of a great message I needed some excellent
jump cards and I dont feel I have that today and I am
dissapointed with the National Hunt cards especially
as none of these have any history to fall back on and
it wont be easy to nail anything today.CARLISLE has
a tedious all chase card as they always do these days.
Big fields make the meeting even harder. In the end
I felt only 1 race was worth a quick preview.

HAYDOCK throws us a nasty card. Not many races I
wanted to preview there but I will do the 2.55pm race.

HAYDOCK 2.55

Blue SquareUARE “FIXED BRUSH” NOVICES’ HURDLE FINAL
BONUS RACE (HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) 2m4f

3/1 Burton Port, 6/1 Danny Zuko, 6/1 Fredo, 6/1 Rouge Et Blanc, 8/1 Sparrow Hills, 10/1 Fiendish Flame, 10/1 Magellan Straits, 12/1 Border Reiver, 12/1 Quinz, 12/1 Riddleofthesands, 16/1 Broken Beau, 20/1 Karmadice

* This is a 2m 4f Novice Handicap Hurdle
* There has been 31 similar races at this time of year
* Thats 31 races in Class 2-3-4 over 19f - 22f
* I want to oppose horses that are up in distance
* Horses from 16f and 17f had a 4-116 record in 31 races
* Those aged 5 that came from 17f or less were 0-36
* FIENDISH FLAME fails this and has other problems
* No horse from a 16f race had more than 11st 4lbs
* MAGELLAN STRAITS also comes from a 16f race
* We know horses aged 5 doing that are 0-36
* FREDO is also a 5yo from 2 miles (0-36)
* KARMADICE is out coming from a 16f race
* RIDDLEOFTHESANDS comes from 16f
* He is also a 5yo and all 36 doing it lost
* No horse that came from 16f or 17f had under 5 runs
* All 27 that tried failed
* ROUGE ET BLANC fails that and is only a 4yo
* QUINZ is a bit too inexperienced for me
* None of the 31 winners came from a maiden hurdle
* SPARROW Hills fails that
* BROKEN BEAU also fails that
* BORDER REIVER is a 5yo unplaced last time
* No 5yo finished unplaced in a novice hurdle and won
* There look to be only 2 strong runners in this race
* BURTON POINT - DANNY ZUKO
* BURTON POINT was 4th in a Graded Hurdle last time
* Horses coming from Graded races were 2-5
* Both came from the same race as he did
* DANNY ZUCO has won a novice hurdle easily last time
* He gets 25lbs from BURTON POINT and thats a lot
* I think I would prefer DANNY ZUCO because of that

SELECTION - DANNY ZUCO 9/2 Each Way

Best Wishes

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips