NEWMARKET 1.50

victor chandler Challenge Stakes (Group 2)
(CLASS 1) (3yo+) 7f

2/1 Delegator, 5/1 Red Jazz, 10/1 Mabait, 10/1 Main Aim
12/1 Cat Junior, 12/1 Dream Eater, 16/1 High Standing
20/1 Duff, 20/1 Himalya, Shakespearean, 25/1 Harrison George 25/1 Sir Gerry, 33/1 Golden Stream, 50/1 Blue Angel.

* The Challenge Stakes is a Group race over 7f
* There are 20 renewals since 1990
* 18 of the 20 winners had between 9 and 14 career runs
* Horses with 13 or more starts struggled
* The only ones that won had Grade 1 form before
* Male 3 year olds are just 1-37 with 13 or more runs
* No 3 year old has won this down in distance

SHORTLIST

* DELEGATOR has 1 run this season
* A Few past winners had 2 runs but none had 1
* Thats the biggest problem he faces
* BLUE ANGEL has a surprisingly good profile
* She is very similar to the 2007 winner
* She is  close to 2 other winners
* In a race of shocks she could be interesting
* 3 Year Old fillies with 7-12 career starts
* Finishing 1-2-3-4 last time
* At least 6 runs this season
* These horses had a 4-6 record in this race
* The last 2 that won (2007 and 2000) were 20/1
* BLUE ANGEL is a possibly shock  winner.

It looks a ridiculous shout to go with BLUE ANGLE who
is 50/1 and more on Betfair and multiple bookmakers but the last 10 renewals have
seen horses win a 20/1 20/1 20/1 20/1 and 16/1 and they
were impossible to find as well so she may be able to nick
a place. I’m not keen on any of the alternatives so with a
risk of making myself look stupid I will go with her.

Definately more chance of losing with this bet than winning with it but the name of the game is long term edge and at 50/1 I sniff some value.
SELECTION

BLUE ANGEL 50/1 + Each  Way bet365 -  betfred – Ladbrokes – s james

Posted under horse racing tips

SOUTHWELL 1.50

Toteexacta The Better Value Forecast Handicap
(CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100)  6f

5/2 Ingleby Arch, 7/2 Felday, 4/1 Esprit De Midas,
9/2 Confuchias, 6/1 Flowing Cape, 33/1 Indian Skipper.

This is a classy 6f handicap for 0-101 rated horses and we
have had 28 similar races at this time of year. Considering
the class of the race INDIAN SKIPPER shouldnt be able to
win from a seller.   GREAT CHARM  comes from a 0-75 in
Class 5 to a 0-101 in Class 2 and thats a stiff jump in class that may find him out. ESPRIT DE MIDAS has to go as a
3yo absent 200 days. No 3 year old had that absence and
none came from a 3yo handicap either. FLOWING CAPE
may not have done enough last time. Look at horses in the
28 races that were beaten 10 lengths or more last time out
you find older horses like FLOWING CAPE having a 0-43
record. I can give INGLEBY ARCH a chance but he has a
45 day absence. No horse aged 6 or more won when absent
over a month or more so statistically he does have question
marks to answer. CONFUCHIAS has one of those difficult
to read profiles and is respected but he has never run here
at Southwell. Neither has FELDAY but he has the strongest
profile for me because of the following.

* Horses from 7f Handicaps running within 7 weeks
* Finishing 1-2-3 last time out
* No Form in Group Class before
* 6 or more runs this season
* The record of all horses with that profile were 6-11
* They finished W 8 W 5 W 2 7 W 3 W W
* Horses aged 3 in that group had a 3-4 record
* FELDAY has the best profile for me

Felday now currently best priced 9/4 betfred, Ladbrokes, Sky

Posted under horse racing tips