SOUTHWELL 12.55

Dine In The Pantry Restaurant Handicap
(Div II) (CLASS 6) (3yo+ 0-55) 7f

7/2 Louisiade, 6/1 Iron Max, 6/1 Sairaam
7/1 Positivity, 7/1 Royal Keva, 9/1 Ride A White Swan
9/1 Top Flight Splash, 11/1 Hard Ball, 11/1 Special Cuvee
14/1 Bertbrand, 16/1 Toballa.

This is Division 2 of the 7f handicap run at 2.20pm
so the statistics are the same and we have had 81 of
these races at this time of year. I was close to giving
up on this race as profile after profile dissapointed me
and I was almost resigned to hating every runner until
I found a horse in HARD BALL that I really liked.

Before HARD BALL’s claims I will mention a few of
the negatives. We know 3yo fillys from 6f races are
0-49 so TOP FLIGHT SPLASH didnt appeal. I could
not find winners like RIDE A WHITE SWAN as an
older horse from a maiden. IRON MAX looked too
inexperienced. No filly like POSITIVITY came from
a maiden. SAIRAAM came out badly as a 3yo filly
with no backclass and looked exposed. LOUISIADE
is 8 and steps down in trip and only 1 winner did it
and that was a different type and He’s unimpressive.
TOBALLA - BERTBRAND all looked weak. I can
see ROYAL KEVA running well but 3 year olds in
these races from 8f races hardly excelled and he is
a maiden after 15 runs. SPECIAL CURVEE could
go well but he has an absence to overcome. So with
a lack of credible profiles I stay with HARD BALL.

HARD BALL

* Horses aged 3 from 3yo handicaps
* 5-12 Career Starts
* Absence of over a Month
* Coming from 7f or more
* Starting under 25/1
* There were 4 horses that had that profile
* They finished W W W  W
* Three of the 4 were maidens just as he is

I have to risk HARD BALL. He may be useless
for all I know but this is a useless race dont forget.
Being beaten just 7 lengths in a 0-70 last time is
more than good enough to take this race. That
was over a mile and there is every chance this
7f distance suits him better.I dont know much
about him but he is entered all over the place
this week which must be a good sign and he is
a horse with a strong profile so why not at a double digit price

Hardball 12/1 Ladbrokes / Tote

Posted under horse racing tips

Chester 3.20

BENEDICTE  £50 Win Bet 7/4 +
( 2/1 available at betfred )

CRABBIES ALCOHOLIC GINGER BEER
MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES(CLASS 4) (3yo+)  1m2f75y

9/4 Crazy Chris, 5/2 Benedicte, 3/1 Nesayem, 6/1 Amroth,
12/1 Triple Cee, 50/1 Sacco D’Oro, 66/1 Amber Glow.

This is an all aged Maiden for fillies. There has been about 29 races like this at this time of year. Unraced horses were 0-46 so SACCO D´ORO is rejected. I dont want any horse beaten 10 lengths or more last time. They’ve a 1-27 record. AMBER GLOW would’ve failed that in a bumper last time out. Its very Interesting that 28 of the 29 winners were 3  year olds. Older horses have a poor 1-47 record. I’d worry CRAZY CHRIS is an older horse and that he has to give 6lbs to 4 Three year olds. It wouldnt be a surprise if one was too strong for her. The following is interesting

* September-October has 380 all aged maidens
* Thats 380 maidens at every and any distance
* Older Fillies like CRAZY CHRIS have a 6-391 record
* Those with under 4 career runs are 0-188
* Those with under 2 runs that season are 0-136

Those stats are not as great as they sound as many of
them were not fancied but it raises great doubts about
CRAZY CHRIS’s ability to give weight away and I’d
be looking for an alternative. AMROTH doesnt have
any major flaws I can see. BENEDICTE was expensive
and you can bet she wasnt at her best last time out and
had a quiet introduction. I don’t want TRIPLE CEE as
horses from 3yo handicaps were 0-24 and she comes
down from 13f to 10f and I see her as unsafe. I would
look to AMROTH as one of the potential winners but
BENEDICTE looked quite an interesting runner. Very
well bred half sister to Amadeus Wolf and I think she
will improve a lot on her second run. NESAYEM  sets
the benchmark coming from Handicaps rated 67. She
sets a reasonable standard and will be able to draw on
her experience here. What draws me to BENEDICTE
is the fact NESAYEM whilst attractive statistically
couldnt beat Pyrus Time two runs ago at Lingfield
and that horse has a 0-14 record and was beaten in
a seller yesterday and is exposed and I think I should
give the chance to BENEDICTE to improve past her.

Posted under horse racing tips

HAYDOCK 2.55

betfred.COM OLD BOROUGH CUP
(HERITAGE HANDICAP)(CLASS 2)
(3yo+ 0-105) 1m6f

5/1 Kings Destiny, 6/1 Alanbrooke, 7/1 Hits Only Vic, 10/1
Chiberta King, 10/1 Yes Mr President, 12/1 Magicalmysterytour 12/1 Nemo Spirit, 14/1 Conquisto, 14/1 Precision Break, 16/1 Highland Legacy, 20/1 Gordonsville, 20/1 Lord Theo, 20/1 Som Tala, 20/1 Spring Jim, 25/1 Macorville, 33/1 Clear Reef 33/1 Hindu Kush.

This Old Borough Cup has 9 renewals and although
it has upgraded over the years in class its a good stats
race and I think we should be able to get this sorted.
I would advise you follow these trends in the race

* Exposed horses with 21 + runs had a 0-51 record
* Every past winner had at least 4 runs that season
* Every past winner was aged 3-4-5
* Every past winner ran within 7 weeks
* Every past winner finished 1-2-3-4-5 last time (0-57)
* No winner lost by 6 or more lengths last time (0-62)
* No past winners dropped from 2 Miles or more
* Horses aged 4 or more coming from 12f or less are 0-43
* This leaves to a shortlist of 2 horses
* ALANBROOKE - KINGS DESTINY
* I think KING’S DESTINY stands out
* Look at horses aged 3 in this race from 12f races
* When they have between 5 and 8 career starts
* When they finished 1-2-3-4-5 last time out

3 year olds that have that profile had a 4-5 record in this
race. The 5 horses finished W W W 2 W and the only one
that didnt win finished second to one of the winners so he
couldnt have won. Thats the outstanding profile in this race and I am placing KINGS DESTINY in the new statistically strong horses paragraph.

SELECTION

KINGS DESTINY - Win Bet  11/2 at Blue Square, CanBet , bet365

Posted under horse racing tips

NEWMARKET 3.15

7/4 Cosmopolitan, 5/1 Lyceana, 13/2 Something Perfect,
7/1 15/2 Fanditha, 12/1 Astrodonna, 12/1 Penzena.

SELECTION - COSMOPOLITAN

This is a 8f Fillies Handicap for 0-84 rated horses and there’s been 11 renewals of this race and 68 elsewhere. Horses with 3 runs struggle. I wouldn’t be interested in PENZENA with 3 runs LYCENA is a seasonal debutant. I do not like that profile. I’ve found 3 that won first time out much as none dropped in trip as she does. I would not see her as a selection. ASTRODONNA has a poor profile and none were like her in 68 races. I have no major problems with SOMETHING PERFECT but None like him won this race at Newmarket but did win other races at other tracks.
SOMETHING PERFECT looks competetive to me but a win on
her debut has left her hardly thrown in. FANDITHA has a chance as well but I could only bet one horse.

COSMOPOLITAN is a 4yo thats just won a maiden. There
were four runners that did that and 3 won. In this race there were 3 doing it and 2 of these won so COSMOPOLITAN looks a big positive. She gave 11lbs to 3 year olds from some big stables when winning a maiden over 3 lengths last time. That suggests to me she could outclass a 0-76 class field like this. She has a Group 1 entry but the fact she has 8lbs more than any other horse and only has a 0-76 class field to beat swings it for me.

SELECTION - COSMOPOLITAN
7/4 at Tote and Ladbrokes

Check other odds here http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2009-06-20/newmarket/15-15/betting/

Posted under horse racing tips

Just a small Extract from our Saturday message from today.

Nb There is a proper account bet for full members of mathematician-betting.co.uk in the 3.35 at Haydock

ASCOT 4:50 - MILES & MORRISON OCTOBER STAKES (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 7f

7/2 Majestic Roi, 8/1 Crystany, Ethaara, Francesca D´Gorgio, Illusion, Salsa Steps, Spinning Lucy, 10/1 Meydan Princess, 12/1 Kylayne, Medicea Sidera,
25/1 Ghostmilk, Steam Cuisine, 33/1 Candle Sahara, Monaazalah, Vital Statistics, 66/1 Indian Diva.

* The October Stakes is a fillies Listed race over 7f
* There has only been 7 renewals of this race
* There has been 20 other Listed races for fillies at this time of year
* The 7 winners had 8-5-8-3-7-5-9 previous races
* It does look a race for lightly raced 3 year olds
* Horses with 10 + runs had a 0-47 record
* Horses aged 4 or more had a 0-27 record
* If you look at the 20 Listed races at this time of year
* Only 2 had as much as 13 or more career starts
* Horses aged 3 or 4 with 13 + runs were 0-39
* This leads me to take out all the exposed horses
* MAJESTIC ROI may be vulnerable aged 4 with 15 runs
* She is the best horse on ratings but she isn’t for me
* She is not typical of any previous winner of this race
* GHOSTMILK -KYLAYNE- MEDICEA SIDERA look exposed
* So to does STEAM CUISINE and VITAL STATISTICS
* I would take out the 4 year olds as they havent won this yet
* All winners of this race had at least 4 runs this season
* In 20 other races horses that had 1-2 runs that year struggled
* No horse managed it with 5 or more career runs (0-30)
* Francesca D´Gorgio fails that
* Horses that came from 7f races with 9 + runs were 0-41
* Spinning Lucy - Candle Sahara both fail that
* I think there are 4 runners with strong profiles
* ETHAARA - ILLUSION - MEYDAN PRINCESS - CRYSTANY
* I like ETHAARA - ILLUSION best of these
* ILLUSION has a very similar profile to 2006 winner Makderah
* She comes from the same race and was badly hampered in that race
* Her trainer has won this race before and at an estimated 14/1 she’s my choice

**blog comment: currently trading a  bit shorter than the Racing Post estimated 14/1.

13.5/1 Betfair being the best current price ***

Posted under horse racing tips