Newbury Racing Tip

Newbury  4.10

5/6 Unioniste, 7/2 Hadrian4s Approach
4/1 Our Father, 6/1 Same Difference
150/1 Henry Hurst.

* This is a 3m Novice Chase
* I see this as an interesting little race
* UNIONISTE upset me last time back in December
* He was a 4yo running in a Cheltenham handicap chase
* I oppose him that day for this reason
* No 4yo had ever won a Cheltenham Handicap Chase before
* I was upset when UNIONISTE broke that statistic
* He made a Mug of me so I dont underestimate him
* He will also improve at this distance today
* However he is now 5 and this is Febuary
* I looked at every 3m Novice Chase in Febuary
* Horses aged 5 had a weak 1-26 record
* The only winner was a horse called Japhet
* He started 2/9 favourite long odds on
* He only won a 3 runner race and he had Grade 1 form
* All the other 5 year olds trying this were beaten
* UNIONISTE – He cant appeal at odds on
* HENRY HURST is outclassed
* SAME DIFFERENCE has quite a lot to prove
* OUR FATHER – I suppose he has to be respected
* Funny horse who probably needs to be fresh
* I think he flopped last time as the race came too soon
* Hard to read we cant know if he will hold his form
* There seems a safer option to me

* This horse has a good profile
* Horses aged 6
* Coming from a Grade1-2 Chase
* There were 8 horses with this profile
* They finished W W W W W 3 F W
* Thats a 6-8 record
* The last to try won in 2010 (Burton Port)
* HADRIAN4S APPROACH is the selection

Selection

HADRIAN’S APPROACH 3/1
Quite a lot of 3/1 or more about earlier when full members got this
but now only sportingbet at those odds. You are looking at 11/4 perhaps as sportingbet who are not exactly renowed as a high stakes layer will cave in quickly no doubt.

Best Live Odds  available here

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2013-02-09/newbury/16-10/betting/

Posted under horse racing tips

Welsh National

Welsh National Analysis

The Welsh National has finally arrived albeit in January

and today’s mail is my attempt to find the winner. It will

not be easy given how bad the conditions are which is

illustrated by the Clerk of the course who states it’s the

lowest going stick reading he has ever recorded there.

Before the main preview and selection some

encouragement to join me as a client proper.

 

To Join The Full Private Service

Due to the rescheduling of the Welsh National we have kept

our cheap Christmas deal offer live and available.

As well as a cheap test month price the simple no quibble
refund guarantee

protects you if you later decide we are not a perfect match
for you.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/christmas-offer-2012.asp

Nb This offer will close after the weekend !

 

Results This Week

There have been 8 bets this week in the Private Service

and they have produced the following results.

WON 5/6 – WON 7/4 – LOST 5/1- WON 11/10

WON 3/1 – LOST 6/1 – WON 3/1 – LOST

 

 

WELSH NATIONAL

Racing Post Forecast Odds

3/1 Teaforthree, 6/1 Michel Le Bon, 7/1 Sona Sasta

7/1 Viking Blond, 10/1 Giles Cross, 10/1 Universal Soldier

12/1 Master Overseer, Monbeg Dude

12/1 Soll, 20/1 Across The Bay, 25/1 Our Island

33/1 Arbor Supreme, 33/1 Harouet, 33/1 Jadanli

40/1 Mon Mome, 50/1 Incentivise, 50/1 Triggerman.

 

* The Welsh National is a Handicap Chase over 3m 5f

* I want to start with the Age statistics

* Bear in Mind as this is run in January that’s affected

* Horses are 1 year old than they would have been last week

* Only 1 horse aged 10 has won this since 1987

* That was Riverside Boy way back in 1976

* Avoid horses aged 11 or more

* I have gone back to 1976 and none have won

* No horse aged 11 or more have placed in 16 years

* The last 16 winners were aged 6-7-8-9

* 21 of the last 22 winners were aged 6-7-8-9

* Adjusting for the race run in the new year

* I would be concerned about only horses aged 11 +

* GILES CROSS looks wrong aged 11 absent 266 days

* The previous 20 winners had all raced that season

* GILES CROSS hasn’t and is surely too old with that in mind

* JADANLI doesn’t offer enough as a 11 year old

* MON MOME makes no appeal as a 13 year old

* TRIGGERMAN is also rejected as a 11 year old

* ARBOR SUPREME has too much to do aged 11

* I don’t see him following up his last win

* Not from so far out of the handicap and up in class

* INCENTIVISE shouldn’t have the class

* Not out of the handicap and a mark he’s not won from

* Most winners had form in Graded Races

* There were only 2 that didn’t

* They had 11 + 12 National Hunt runs and 4 + 7 Chase runs

* I’d only want a lightly raced horse if non Graded form

* HAROUET fails that and doesn’t look good enough

* His Sire hasn’t bred a winner beyond 3m 2f either

* COOL OPERATOR has just won two 0-120 handicaps

* He is stepping up 4 Grades now and in a 0-153

* I don’t see where the improvement will come

* Not considering he’s exposed with all his wins of lower
marks

* KATENKO doesn’t have much experience in England

* I think its asking a lot having never ran beyond 3m

* Fallen in 3 of 11 Chase starts he isn’t for me

* ACROSS THE BAY has a horrible weight in bad ground]

* He is 18lbs higher than his best handicap win

* ACROSS THE BAY is best avoided

* Horses with 11st 1lbs and more have struggled

* Just two have won since the 1994 winner

* That race was run at Newbury a far easier track

* The two winners were Synchronised and Halcon Genelardais

* These were lightly raced with 10 and 12 NH runs

* They only had 4 and 5 Chase starts

* I’d want a lightly raced horse if they have 11st 1lbs or
more

* Go back to 1988 for Horses coming via the Hennessy

* In 23 years the record of these horses is 0-47

* So Far all 47 that tried to win have failed to do so

* The Role of Failures includes Horses beaten at these odds

* 5/2f , 11/2 , 9/4f , 4/1, 13/2 ,11/2, 5/2f , 11/2 , 8/1

* 11/2 8/1, 9/1 5/1, 11/2 , 7/2, 13/2 7/2 9/2 5/2f

* My advice is do not rely on this Statistic much

* This year horses have an extra weeks recovery time

* That must undermine that statistic

* That said its a 23 year stat that’s still standing

* It can’t be a positive to come from the Hennessy

* TEAFORTHREE comes from the Hennessy my first worry

* He has ran twice this season

* He was beaten 40 and 27 lengths in these races

* That’s a bit too far for comfort in two races

* He won the 4m Chase at the Cheltenham Festival

* Most winners didn’t run at the previous festival

* None of the past 4 did and neither did 6 of the last 7

* I’d like evidence he has recovered from that grueling win

* TEAFORTHREE could easily overcome that and win

* I would be inclined to see him as a positive

* TEAFORTHREE doesn’t appeal at the prices though

* Especially with 11st 3lbs a higher weight than ideal

* SOLL also comes from the Hennessy

* It would worry me that he is inexperienced

* He has 4 Chase starts but was brought down in one

* Past winners had the following National Hunt runs

* 34 12 20 16 20 10 19 11 33 18 14 31 14 21

* The least experienced winner had 10 National Hunt runs

* SOLL only has 5 National Hunt runs

* That’s only half as much as the least experienced winner

* SOLL doesn’t look the right type to me

* OUR ISLAND is just out of Novice Chases

* Doesn’t look Classy enough for this race

* He has never won beyond a Class 4 race before

* MASTER OVERSEER won at Cheltenham 3 weeks ago

* There are positives about his chance

* He has winning form here and stays

* There are plenty of concerns about him as well

* Will he recover from that hard race last time out

* He has been inconsistent recently

* There could be an argument that he is best fresh

* He also ran badly in last years race

* Raised to a career high mark I feel he is riSky

* UNIVERSAL SOLDIER has 9 National Hunt runs

* That’s fewer than any previous winner of the race

* He is inexperienced much as 5 Chase starts is fine

* He doesn’t have any Graded form though

* Most winners had that and that’s a worry

* There were just two that didn’t have Graded form

* They had more experience and less weight

* They both won their previous 2 races and were improvers

* UNIVERSAL SOLDIER doesn’t have that feel about him

* MONBEG DUDE is lightly raced over fences

* He only has 10 National Hunt starts as well

* All recent winners aged 7 or 8 had more

* He’d be the joint least experienced winner

* Having 5 Chase starts isn’t a huge problem

* MONBEG DUDE only completed in 3 of these

* He pulled up after 6 fences in one race

* He fell 4 fences out in another

* He is a bit short of experience

* I wonder if this may come a year too early

* I cant rule him out but he has a bit to prove

* Winning a Graded Chase last time isn’t the norm

* SONA SASTA has a lovely weight of 10st

* Happy overall with 16 runs and 9 over fences

* There is a stamina doubt about him

* He has 3 runs in races over 3m 4f or more

* He finished 5th 6th 6th beaten 51 12 29 lengths

* If he stays he is a player but its a worry

* So is the 7lbs Claimer which I’d see as a negative

* MICHEL LE BON is an interesting horse

* He won a Novice Chase back in November 2009

* Injury then forced him off the track two years

* He came back in the 2011 Hennessy well fancied

* I made him a big negative that day

* He had just 1 chase start and 730 days absence

* He then went to Kempton’s big chase in February

* He had an awful profile that day and flopped

* He wasn’t fit or experienced enough as I said on the day

* He then won over hurdles and wrapped up for the year

* This year he was a good 2nd in a solid trial race at Wincanton

* Stamina wise his sires bred 1 winner from 19 over 3m 3f
+

* That doesn’t really count as it in a cross country race

* MICHEL LE BON has 9 National Hunt runs

* That’s a bit low and all winners aged 9 or more had more

* 4 of those 9 runs were over fences

* The 2011 2007 2006 winners all had 4 Chase runs

* They were younger though so he isn’t a perfect match

* All horses aged 9 + had at least twice more chase runs

* Not sure if that matters or not

* Most had more runs that season as well

* Its a worry he has no strong form in long distance handicaps

* Is he equipped for a long distance handicap chase ?

* He hasn’t proven as much as many past winners in them

* Sure he has the ability off 144 but he has to prove it

* VIKING BLOND is a very interesting runner

* He’s a bit more exposed than ideal for his age

* His 8 Chase starts is fine though

* Horses aged 7-8 had 4 7 8 9 9 13 14 10 4 15 Chase runs

* I think that puts him in quite a good place statistically

* He is from a Sire that’s not had a winner past 3m2f yet

* Not many have tried but it is a concern

* My other concern is a lack of proven form in marathon races

* The vast majority of past winners had good form in these
races

* VIKING BLOND hasn’t also flopped in this race last year

* I can excuse that as he had a very poor profile last year

* He was favourite last year and this year has less weight

* This horse was a good Novice Chaser in 2011

* Since then I think he’s been campaigned badly

* December 2011 Welsh National he was a big negative

* Had no chance of winning that with just 3 chase runs

* He then disappointed at Ascot in February 2012

* No surprise after what happened at Chepstow

* It was ridiculous to run this 7yo in the Grand National

* Horses that age don’t win and he fell at the first

* That meant he lacked a run when running in April

* In the bet365 Gold Cup he had been absent far too long

* Some ridiculous planning spoilt his 2012 season

* This year he has at least come out and run well

* Several positives like good recent form and track form

* I also love the fact he has two good runs this year

* VIKING BLOND has lots in his favour

 

 

Conclusion

After the abandonment and all withdrawals the market

has settled down and this year the betting looks about

right. I can see a few potential winners and its a matter

of choosing the right one. TEAFORTHREE has to be a

possible winner. I’m ignoring the bad statistic of horses

that come from the Hennessy as there is 9 extra days

recovery time but at the price he is too short to select.

I could actually make a good case for him as a place

saver around Evens. The value has disappeared from

the win market but with 4 places he could place and

be the perfect saver as a place bet. Another factor to

put me off his win chance is Rebecca Curtis has not

yet trained a winner higher than Listed Class before.

In 2011 Paul Nicholls was adamant MICHEL LE BON

was potentially top class and fancied him that year in

the Hennessy. His profile that day was laughable and

it wasn’t much better in his next race at Kempton. Its

to his credit he then won over hurdles and first time

out this year he ran very well at Wincanton. This is a

valuable race and Paul Nicholls understands that and

if he has the same animal he thought he had in 2011

then his weight wont stop him today. We do not know

if he can scale those heights but he has been laid out

for this race and unlike many Nicholls horses he has

been given time and space to fulfil his potential. He

still has time to fulfil his potential and I hope its now.

I said in my November 17 message that I was getting

excited about VIKING BLOND’s Welsh national hopes.

He has been laid out for the race by a Grand National

master and if he gets in a rhythm and gets home he’s

a serious threat and will go close. It was a close call

between my bet and saver but VIKING BLOND has a

bit more experience and more runs this season and

has 10lbs less weight to carry which will greatly help.

 

 

Selection

VIKING BLOND 10/1 + Win Bet bet365William Hillstan james

MICHEL LE BON 9/1 Saver Bet victor chandlerstan james

( A saver is simply a small bet staked to win back the stake
on the main bet should the saver win the race )

 

Best Wishes

Guy Ward

PS Don’t forget to grab the Christmas sale price on full
membership whilst it is still available.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/christmas-offer-2012.asp

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on January 5, 2013

Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Saturday Betting At Sandown

Last day of the flat season today but we are seeking a profit in one of the National Hunt races at Sandown.

 

S a n d o w n  3.30

3/1 Hold On Julio, 7/2 Very Stylish, 6/1 Earth Planet
7/1 Moleskin, 8/1 Craiglands, 8/1 Pak Jack, 8/1 Soixante
9/1 Appleaday, 50/1 Local Present.

This is an interesting 3m Handicap Chase. I looked at
all similar races at this time of year. They all have to
be considered expect maybe LOCAL PRESENT. I am
going to oppose VERY STYLISH. He won on his chase
debut but that was a long time ago now and I wasnt too
impressed. I’m in no hurry to bet PAK JACK as he is a
11 year old seasonal debutant with topweight and has a
career high mark and poor win record. I cant rule out
several of these but two horses did stand out here.

HOLD ON JULIO

Initially I was going to make him a negative as there
are no Handicap Chases won by horses coming from a
Maiden hunter Chase. Then I can across this statistic.

* Horses coming from all Hunter Chases
* Having Under 9 career starts
* First Time Out
* There were 9 horses with that profile
* These horses had a very interesting 5-9 record

It strikes me the only reason to run a Hunter Chaser
like HOLD ON JULIO in a race like this is because he
is very well handicapped. He has won point to points
as well as his Hunter Chase win and Alan King has not
bought him for nothing. I have to see him in a different
light despite the fact the brilliant 5-9 record of Hunter
Chasers doesnt include winners from maiden hunters.

EARTH PLANET

There is a very good record in this race for horses
aged 9 that have recent runs especially over 3m or
more. Having a recent run has been a big help here.
When you consider the Whip Rules now that might
even be more of a help to EARTH PLANET. After
all apart from the “no hoper” All seven of his main
rivals are seasonal debutants. EARTH PLANET has
a considerable fitness advantage with 4 races so Far
this season. He has just placed at Cheltenham in a
similar Class race.  Yes he is frustrating and hard to
win with but he consistently runs well and has form
on right handed tracks and has shown he has enough
ability to win this race. Given how helpful its been
to have a recent run in this race I have to fancy him.

Selection

I do like two here a lot. I feel I have to have a saver
on HOLD ON JULIO around 3/1 but I think there is
a very good chance EARTH PLANET’s fitness may
get him home today and I like him each way.

EARTH PLANET 7/1 Each Way
HOLD ON JULIO 3/1 + Saver Bet

Best odds at time of free blog post

Earth Planet 7/1 LadbrokesTote

Hold On Julio VC – Totebetfred

 

 

 

.

Posted under horse racing tips

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup

Full members had an exciting ride yesterday
with an advised each way double on  JESSIES DREAM
and  FIRST LIEUTENANT.

FIRST LIEUTENANT won setting up JESSIES DREAM
to complete an 87/1 double at Starting Price. Agony to watch with
JESSIES DREAM going odds on in running and looking
like winning. Wasn’t to be though with Jessies Dream
beaten by a mere neck.

Still a decent payout on the place side but so so close to a monster payout
for Full members.

You can read Guy’s reasoning and logic for these two  at link below

Close To Big Cigar

As Sods law would dicate the free blog race was a bit of a dog.

Sticking to our long term value principles however we ae not going for a
short priced hot pot on the free blog today.

Another big price horse for you.

CHELTENHAM 4.40

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup (Handicap Chase)
(Amateur Riders) (CLASS 2) (5yo+ 0-140) 3m1f110y

6/1 Junior, 15/2 Galant Nuit, 10/1 Saddlers Storm
12/1 Pomme Tiepy, 14/1 Can´t Buy Time, Galaxy Rock
16/1 Faasel, 16/1 Far More Serious, 16/1 Mostly Bob
16/1 Richard´s Sundance, 18/1 Fredo, 20/1 Alderley Rover
20/1 Billie Magern, 25/1 Cornish Sett, 25/1 Khachaturian
25/1 Minella Theatre, Sheriff Hutton, 28/1 Massini Man
33/1 Burren Legend, 33/1 Dance Island, 33/1 Deal Done
33/1 Den Of Iniquity, 33/1 Teddy´s Reflection
40/1 Palypso De Creek.

* The Kim Muir is a 25f Handicap Chase for Amateurs
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* GALANT NUIT was 3rd in last years race
* I have a problem with him having 1 run this year
* I looked at every handicap chase in March at 3m +
* Those with 13 or more career starts and 1 run that year
* There were a few winners but none were aged 7 like him
* They also scored very badly with absences
* GALANT NUIT has been off 96 days as well
* There are 75 Handicap Chases at the festival at all trips
* Since 1993 that has meant 75 Festival Handicap Chases
* Horses aged 6 and 7 won 16 of these races
* None of these had just 1 or 2 runs that season
* No 6 or 7 year old won with 1-2 runs this season
* In fact there were only 3 that did it with 1-2-3 that year
* All 3 of those horses had Under 11st weight
* GALANT NUIT fails that as well
* I think he would be better on softer ground
* Only 2 horses aged 7 have won this since 1992
* Both had 5 + runs that season and ran within a month
* GALANT NUIT has just 1 run and a long break

* Older horses aged 11 or more are 0-60 in this race
* CORNISH SETT is too old after a heavy defeat last time
* FAR MORE SERIOUS has to go as an 11 year old
* Especially with a high weight and no Graded form
* Exposed horses have to be certain types
* I dont want the ones lightly raced this year
* Horses with 21 + runs in hurdles + chases won 6 races
* Those with 1-2-3 runs that year were 0-47
* FAASEL has to go exposed with 1 run this season
* RICHARD´S SUNDANCE also fails that
* CAN´T BUY TIME looks underraced now he’s exposed
* POMME TIEPY fails that and is a Mare
* I looked at this race and the Festival Handicap
* These two races at the 3m Handicaps at the festival
* I looked at exposed horses in both races
* Those with 1-2-3  runs that season were just 3-116
* None were aged 6-7-8-9 (0-45)
* RICHARD´S SUNDANCE – POMME TIEPY fail that
* CAN´T BUY TIME fail that
* All 3 had form in Grade 1 or Grade 2 before
* RICHARD´S SUNDANCE fails that as well
* CAN´T BUY TIME fails that as well
* Exposed horses with 1-2-3-4 runs this year struggled
* Those absent more than a Month were just 1-58
* None won when carrying more than 11st 1lbs
* RICHARD´S SUNDANCE fails all that and has a poor profile
* CAN´T BUY TIME – POMME TIEPY fail that as well
* BURREN LEGEND comes out badly
* Exposed and lacking Grade 1-2 form he’s weak
* MASSINI MAN is out of his depth
* Inexperienced and winning a Hunter Chase last time
* PALYPSO DE CREEK looks underraced this year to me
* Exposed and coming from hurdles he looks vulnerable
* SHERIFF HUTTON is exposed and comes from 2m 5f
* Exposed horses from 3m or shorter last time were 1-79
* All Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* No exposed horse won carrying more than 11st
* SHERIFF HUTTON also has that against him
* SHERIFF HUTTON could have problems on this track
* TEDDY´S REFLECTION is wrong from a Graded Novice
* BILLIE MAGERN is wrong from a Graded Novice
* DANCE ISLAND  is wrong from a Graded Novice
* DEN OF INIQUITY has been absent 75 days
* No horse as old as him won with that absence
* Horses aged 7 only have a 2-56 record
* None like DEAL DONE had under 5 runs that year
* Horses aged 7 from 3m 1f or shorter were 0-45
* BILLIE MAGERN fails that
* DEAL DONE fails that coming from 2m 5f
* ALDERLEY ROVER fails that as well
* GALAXY ROCK fails that as well
* FREDO fails that as well
* Horses coming from Novice Chases are 0-23 in this race
* ALDERLEY ROVER has that to overcome
* I looked at every Handicap Chase at the festival
* I looked for 7 year olds from Novice Chases
* None won without Grade 1 form before
* ALDERLEY ROVER looks wrong from a Novice Chase
* GALAXY ROCK is also 7 from a Novice Chase
* He has no form beyond a Class 2 race and looks wrong
* No 7yo with his profile has won at the festival before
* FREDO has the same problems as well
* He is 7 from a Novice race with no Graded form
* I looked at this race and the Festival Handicap
* These two races at the 3m Handicaps at the festival
* No winners of either race came from 2n 3f or shorter
* SADDLERS STORM fails that and looks wrong
* I can ignore the fact Irish Horses are 0-35 in this race
* I cant ignore some of his other problems
* SADDLERS STORM has a high weight to overcome
* No horses did that with under 4 runs this season
* With just 2 runs and up in distance he looks opposable
* MINELLA THEATRE has a poor profile
* I dont like him out of form from 2m 6f
* MOSTLY BOB fell in the Racing Post Chase last time
* The 1994 winner was well beaten in that race and won this
* He has a tough weight of 11st 8lbs
* This race has been won by higher weights
* They were all unexposed with 4 + runs that year like him
* He only has 4 Chase starts and thats a problem
* He fell at the 3rd fence last time so he’s really had just 3
* He has fallen in two of his 4 Chase starts so far
* That leaves him quite short on experience
* I feel its asking too much of him with a big weight

POSSIBLES

* JUNIOR has been very well touted for this race
* He is clearly strongly fancied and well handicapped
* JUNIOR  has 1-2-3 Runs this season
* He has Grade 1 form which is important in that regard
* The absence doesnt worry me
* There are so few decent profiles he does stand out
* I do just prefer the chance of KHACHATURIAN more

SELECTION

* KHACHATURIAN stands out to me
* KHACHATURIAN was 5th in last years race
* He was only beaten 10 lengths last year
* He led and jumped the last in second place
* No shame at all in being caught by Ballybriggs
* Last years run proved this track is fine for him
* Statistically he was dead last year
* He ws only a 7yo the weakest age
* He lacked a recent run last year
* He has that today and is now a better age
* He had to come from 2m 5f last time
* Horses of any age doing that have awful records
* He came from Novice Handicaps last year
* This year he doesn’t and has more experience
* Last year he had a crippling weight for a 7yo
* This year he is 8 and races off a 3lbs lower mark
* He may well have gone off too fast last years
* He is a bigger price this year than he was last year

Bet each way

25/1 available at s james and betfred for 4 places
or if you prefer 22/1 at Blue Sq paying 5 places.

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Posted under Major Horse Races

Racing Post Chase

Thanks for those of you who emailed to say thanks for a bit of extra winnings last week.  Not the full cigar but 9/1 each way returned a bit of profit.

I had a couple of requests to have a look at the Racing Post Chase this week on the free blog.

It’s one of the extra races I looked at for full members so here are my quick thoughts on it.

KEMPTON 3.00

Racing Post Chase Handicap Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m

5/1 Fistral Beach, 5/1 Nacarat, 6/1 Quinz, 8/1 Bakbenscher
9/1 Mostly Bob, 10/1 Sagalyrique, 12/1 Hey Big Spender
12/1 Tatenen, 14/1 Razor Royale, 16/1 Polyfast
20/1 Crescent Island, 20/1 Door Boy, 20/1 Ringaroses
25/1 Piraya, 33/1 Safari Adventures, 40/1 Free World
40/1 Mount Oscar.

* The Racing Post Chase is a Graded Chase over 3m
* There has been 16 renewals of this race.
* Febuary and March have seen 136 Handicap Chases
* Thats 136 Handicap Chases at 3m in Class 2 or higher
* FISTRAL BEACH doesnt offer enough for me
* Not keen he has just 1 run this season
* No past winner of this race had 1 run that season
* In 136 of these races I looked at those with 1 run this year
* When coming from 22f or shorter there were 3 winners
* Those with 7 or more career starts were just 1-35
* That winner had less weight and a more recent run
* CRESCENT ISLAND has the same problems to overcome
* RINGAROSES is wrong with 1 run this season
* None of the 136 winners came from 18f or shorter
* All 32 lost and FREE WORLD fails that
* QUINZ comes from a Novice Chase
* No winner of this race came from an ordinary Novice Chase
* Horses doing that in 136 other races had a 3-59 record
* None were aged 7 like QUINZ (0-14)
* None had as much weight as he does either
* Horses beaten in a Novice Chase last time were 0-24
* QUINZ also fails that and doesnt come out well enough
* MOUNT OSCAR is out up in trip aged 12
* SAFARI ADVENTURES is exposed and up in trip
* He lacks the backclass to overcome that
* PIRAYA is exposed up in trip with 1-2-3 runs this season
* Similar horses had a 1-51 record
* That winner had more backclass than PIRAYA
* He also flopped in last years race and wants a small field
* RAZOR ROYALE won this race last year
* This year he has a much inferior preparation
* He is exposed this year and has far fewer prep runs
* He also has a nasty absence which doesnt help him
* I dont see him bouncing back to form with his profile
* MOSTLY BOB comes from a Novice Handicap Chase
* He only has 9 career National Hunt Starts
* Horses from Novice Handicaps with under 13 runs are 0-14
* MOSTLY BOB fails that and looks wrong to me
* I looked at all 8 year olds from Novice Handicap Chases
* I found only 1 winner and he had far more backclass
* MOSTLY BOB only has 3 career Chase starts
* Thats very inexperienced and he fell in one of those chases
* The 16 winners of this race had the following Chase starts
* 9 6 7 11 41 18 28 6 6 9 5 13 31 14 22 13
* The lightest raced chaser to win this Gloria Victus (2000)
* He had 5 runs which is far more experienced than he is
* MOSTLY BOB doesnt look right with 3 runs from handicaps
* DOOR BOY doesnt appeal much to me
* Well beaten on all  starts this year
* I couldnt find a winner like him in the 136 races
* His lack of form this year makes him vulnerable
* POLYFAST is 8 and won a Handicap Chase last time
* That was over 2m 5f and there are 4 similar winners
* They all had a more recent run than him
* They all had more backclass as well
* POLYFAST hasnt been out of Listed Class yet
* 3 or the 4 similar winners had Grade 1 form before
* They all came from higher in the weights as well
* His form over this far raises stamina doubts too
* Statistically he doesnt make the grade for me
* SAGALYRIQUE is 7 and comes from 2m 4f or shorter
* I found 1 similar winner doing that
* He did have a bit more backclass than he does
* The issue with SAGALYRIQUE is if he has the class
* My best guess is that he wont
* The overnight rain wont have helped him either
* With Blinkers and a Tongue Strap he doesnt feel like the one

POSSIBLES

NACARAT – BAKBENSCHER
HEY BIG SPENDER – TATENEN

* NACARAT doesnt have a major statistical problem
* The 2004 winner (Malborough) had a very similar profile
* His stable is out of form though
* HEY BIG SPENDER is 8 and won a 21f handicap last time
* I found 3 similar winners with that profile
* They all had Grade 1 form and a high weight and recent run
* HEY BIG SPENDER also fits that profile
* The 2001 and 1999 winners of this race had that profile
*  HEY BIG SPENDER has a good profile for me
* One doubt is whether he can recover from his last race
* Only 14 days ago it would be a small concern
* No horse won this from 2m 5f in the past fortnight
* The other is whether a right handed flat track suits
* All his best form came away from tighter tracks
* It was tight at Warwick last time but not right handed
* TATENEN is 7 and won a 22f handicap last time
* I found 1 similar winner in the 136 races
* TATENEN has to prove he stays 3 Miles today
* His 4 runs at 3m and more have been bad defeats
* He was not fancied in 3 of those 4 runs
* Wrong to assume he doesnt stay based on that record
* His trainer is on record as being unsure if he stays 3m
* Shortlistable on his profile his biggest issue is stamina
* BAKBENSCHER is hard to read from a Graduation Chase
* Plenty to like about his profile
* Not least a good recent win and strong form right handed
* Statistically he is hard to assess because of his last run
* The Positives far outweight the doubts for me

SELECTION

All 4 have at least one concern as mentioned above. I see
TATENEN placing but perhaps not staying well enough to
win. NACARAT is respected and looks saver material with
topweight. The last four winners were 8 year olds and that
and a recent run steers me towards  BAKBENSCHER

BAKBENSCHER Win Bet     9/1  at bet365 and VC

( Nacarat – Optional Saver)

Posted under horse racing tips